What the betting line says about Sunday's game (1 Viewer)

BoNcHiE

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This thread has nothing to with fixing games, it being rigged, or me guaranteeing what will happen. Just wanted to get that out of the way early. No amount of trends or tells will ever guarantee a win.

I made a similar thread to this opining about the Falcons game, the presence of reverse line movement, and that I felt strongly that Falcons +3.5 was the play, meaning that the game would be close or they cover in a win. Got plenty of red thumbs, but we all know what happened.

SO, here's what the line says about Sunday (IF you care, if you don't, carry on).

The Saints opened at +3.5, above the key number of 3. It's now moved to +2.5 despite more numerical bets coming in on the Seahawks, who are around 55-60% of the action depending on what your source is. What this means is that books gave up the key number to the favorite (Seahawks now -2.5) despite more bets coming in on them. That's called reverse line movement and it's a common tell that the dog is probably the play.

This could mean two things.

1) Big, sharp money has come in on the Saints, meaning most casual betters are on the Seahawks but the professional betters are on the Saints.

or

2) The books see something in this game and are baiting bettors with that Seahawks -2.5. When a game seems too easy, it usually is and they take their shots. And that line smells to easy with most people thinking the Seahawks are clearly a better team.

Regardless of what's causing the reverse line movement, it's all good news for the Saints chances just like it was all bad news for us against the Falcons.

Take it or leave it, but that's what the line is saying going into tomorrow.
 

Hotdog_Skin

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The more I've read about how beat up the Seahawks are, and the more I see how everyone's opinion is this is an easy win for the Hawks, the more I believe we will take this one.

I'm off the next two days. Real tempted to drive from Texas to Nola to catch this game..
 

St.Fury

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Bet on the Saints.
 

CRESS_137

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This thread has nothing to with fixing games, it being rigged, or me guaranteeing what will happen. Just wanted to get that out of the way early. No amount of trends or tells will ever guarantee a win.

I made a similar thread to this opining about the Falcons game, the presence of reverse line movement, and that I felt strongly that Falcons +3.5 was the play, meaning that the game would be close or they cover in a win. Got plenty of red thumbs, but we all know what happened.

SO, here's what the line says about Sunday (IF you care, if you don't, carry on).

The Saints opened at +3.5, above the key number of 3. It's now moved to +2.5 despite more numerical bets coming in on the Seahawks, who are around 55-60% of the action depending on what your source is. What this means is that books gave up the key number to the favorite (Seahawks now -2.5) despite more bets coming in on them. That's called reverse line movement and it's a common tell that the dog is probably the play.

This could mean two things.

1) Big, sharp money has come in on the Saints, meaning most casual betters are on the Seahawks but the professional betters are on the Saints.

or

2) The books see something in this game and are baiting bettors with that Seahawks -2.5. When a game seems too easy, it usually is and they take their shots. And that line smells to easy with most people thinking the Seahawks are clearly a better team.

Regardless of what's causing the reverse line movement, it's all good news for the Saints chances just like it was all bad news for us against the Falcons.

Take it or leave it, but that's what the line is saying going into tomorrow.
Interesting stuff
 

bradman1965

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In the same vein, most of the advance metrics simulations are at a tossup against the Seahawks whereas last week ran from 67%-80% in favor of the Chiefs.
 

327

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So this basically means that if we are up by more than 3 and the Seahawks are driving late that we won't have a questionable interference call to keep them in the game?

Since we are +2.5 and the pro money is on us. They'll want us to cover so the refs will keep the flags in the pockets and let it happen.
 

Saintaholic

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Vegas is definitely baiting this one. This is a good game for Vegas to make money. There is a lot going against the Seahawks this week, a drum I've been beating all week.

The 5 quarter road night game following by traveling yet again, this time to play at noon, which usually spells doom for west coast teams. Now all the injury news - no Chancellor, their bad OL has lost its starting LT, Wilson is playing very hurt.

I know I said "blowout" earlier this week, but I really think we win comfortably tomorrow. We are not the better team, we are just catching them at the perfect time.
 

los226

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The line moved to Saints +1 earlier today and is now back up to +1.5.
 

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