What the betting line says about Sunday's game (1 Viewer)

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Stop it. I'm fighting the urge to become optimistic about games this year. I'm still of the belief that the Saints will be close in all games with a winning outcome hinging on limiting mistakes and turnovers. Just hoping this is a game that the ball bounces our way for a change.
 
327 said:
So this basically means that if we are up by more than 3 and the Seahawks are driving late that we won't have a questionable interference call to keep them in the game?

Since we are +2.5 and the pro money is on us. They'll want us to cover so the refs will keep the flags in the pockets and let it happen.
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Or that's what they want us to think will happen.:scratch:
 
nosaint77 said:
The lines shifts to keep the bets even. They make their money on the juice not the bets
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That's true to a certain degree. However, if Vegas feels like they can "bait" bettors into a certain game, they are more than happy to take that added risk.
 
Like...a...freaking...book

Those that don't think this stuff matters, maybe you now see how guys like me make money at this.
 
All too often we are on the short end of the calls....we got breaks today...I thought of your post while watching the game...I'm going to start betting your predictions...
 
Eman5805 said:
I wish I had money to bet. Cuz I'd sure throw cash at this.
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Don't want people to think it's always this easy. But there are certain games that just tell you which side to go on.

My starting bank is only $200. I've almost tripled it and it's only week 8. Anyone with a little walking around money can bet $5-$10 a game and have fun.
 
BoNcHiE said:
Don't want people to think it's always this easy. But there are certain games that just tell you which side to go on.

My starting bank is only $200. I've almost tripled it and it's only week 8. Anyone with a little walking around money can bet $5-$10 a game and have fun.
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I have a friend that used the same approach based on the same logic that you're using. In 2 seasons he made enough money for a down payment on a house. During those two seasons, several of his friends started betting on games for the first time, because of his success and they made some money too during those first 2 seasons.

Then the following 2 seasons he lost so much money sticking to this approach and logic, that he ended up having to work it off by doing pickups and deliveries for his bookie. Fortunately, his friends quit after their first few losses.

This happened from 2002 to 2006.
 
StudioSaint said:
I have a friend that used the same approach based on the same logic that you're using. In 2 seasons he made enough money for a down payment on a house. During those two seasons, several of his friends started betting on games for the first time, because of his success and they made some money too during those first 2 seasons.

Then the following 2 seasons he lost so much money sticking to this approach and logic, that he ended up having to work it off by doing pickups and deliveries for his bookie. Fortunately, his friends quit after their first few losses.

This happened from 2002 to 2006.
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This thread is not delineating a system for me. That's why I've only made this thread one other time this year when I really felt strongly about a game.

If you simply blindly bet reverse line movement, you aren't gonna win long term.

Once the starting bank is gone you stop and wait for next year. You don't chase. Anyone who lost enough to need to work for a bookie wasn't practicing money management. You can only get that far into the hole by chasing bad bets in a panic.
 
StudioSaint said:
I have a friend that used the same approach based on the same logic that you're using. In 2 seasons he made enough money for a down payment on a house. During those two seasons, several of his friends started betting on games for the first time, because of his success and they made some money too during those first 2 seasons.

Then the following 2 seasons he lost so much money sticking to this approach and logic, that he ended up having to work it off by doing pickups and deliveries for his bookie. Fortunately, his friends quit after their first few losses.

This happened from 2002 to 2006.
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He got greedy. Flat betting won't make you alot of money but you won't lose a lot either. Your friend was betting over his head and chasing.
 
nosaint77 said:
The lines shifts to keep the bets even. They make their money on the juice not the bets
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But movement of a full point when the majority of betters, especially as Bonchie pointed out to under the magic FG spread usually does show that BIg Money is betting on a team.
 
BoNcHiE said:
This thread is not delineating a system for me. That's why I've only made this thread one other time this year when I really felt strongly about a game.

If you simply blindly bet reverse line movement, you aren't gonna win long term.

Once the starting bank is gone you stop and wait for next year. You don't chase. Anyone who lost enough to need to work for a bookie wasn't practicing money management. You can only get that far into the hole by chasing bad bets in a panic.
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Surviving Saint said:
He got greedy. Flat betting won't make you alot of money but you won't lose a lot either. Your friend was betting over his head and chasing.
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Between the first 2 years and the 2 two years, he didn't do anything different. Didn't increase his per bet amount and didn't chase or panic. He kept betting the same exact way he had in the first 2 seasons with confidence that he understood how "Vegas" works.

Also, he didn't have a first job as he is independently wealthy. He could have just paid off his losses, but he and his bookie hit it off well and he decided to work it off instead of paying out of pocket.

My point was to be careful, because no matter how sure you are of what you're doing, it's called gambling for a reason.
 

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