BoNcHiE
Every team's Elixir
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2004
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This thread has nothing to with fixing games, it being rigged, or me guaranteeing what will happen. Just wanted to get that out of the way early. No amount of trends or tells will ever guarantee a win.
I made a similar thread to this opining about the Falcons game, the presence of reverse line movement, and that I felt strongly that Falcons +3.5 was the play, meaning that the game would be close or they cover in a win. Got plenty of red thumbs, but we all know what happened.
SO, here's what the line says about Sunday (IF you care, if you don't, carry on).
The Saints opened at +3.5, above the key number of 3. It's now moved to +2.5 despite more numerical bets coming in on the Seahawks, who are around 55-60% of the action depending on what your source is. What this means is that books gave up the key number to the favorite (Seahawks now -2.5) despite more bets coming in on them. That's called reverse line movement and it's a common tell that the dog is probably the play.
This could mean two things.
1) Big, sharp money has come in on the Saints, meaning most casual betters are on the Seahawks but the professional betters are on the Saints.
or
2) The books see something in this game and are baiting bettors with that Seahawks -2.5. When a game seems too easy, it usually is and they take their shots. And that line smells to easy with most people thinking the Seahawks are clearly a better team.
Regardless of what's causing the reverse line movement, it's all good news for the Saints chances just like it was all bad news for us against the Falcons.
Take it or leave it, but that's what the line is saying going into tomorrow.
I made a similar thread to this opining about the Falcons game, the presence of reverse line movement, and that I felt strongly that Falcons +3.5 was the play, meaning that the game would be close or they cover in a win. Got plenty of red thumbs, but we all know what happened.
SO, here's what the line says about Sunday (IF you care, if you don't, carry on).
The Saints opened at +3.5, above the key number of 3. It's now moved to +2.5 despite more numerical bets coming in on the Seahawks, who are around 55-60% of the action depending on what your source is. What this means is that books gave up the key number to the favorite (Seahawks now -2.5) despite more bets coming in on them. That's called reverse line movement and it's a common tell that the dog is probably the play.
This could mean two things.
1) Big, sharp money has come in on the Saints, meaning most casual betters are on the Seahawks but the professional betters are on the Saints.
or
2) The books see something in this game and are baiting bettors with that Seahawks -2.5. When a game seems too easy, it usually is and they take their shots. And that line smells to easy with most people thinking the Seahawks are clearly a better team.
Regardless of what's causing the reverse line movement, it's all good news for the Saints chances just like it was all bad news for us against the Falcons.
Take it or leave it, but that's what the line is saying going into tomorrow.
