Which Mock Drafts Have the Best Success Rate? (1 Viewer)

bobad

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Thanks! Great resource!

Kiper is pretty respectable, well within the top 20.
 

Cajun Chat

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The Slate article, though, pretty much trashes Kiper by pointing out his low percentage of actually matching up teams with "first round talent" -basically arguing that while Kiper may be able to hit on 80% of the best players in the draft for the past 20 years, insofar as matching players with team need, he's more in the neighbohood of 29%.

Meanwhile, Rick does it the old fashion way... he calls teams and asks them who are they looking at, and by process of elimination, pretty much matches up need with first round players.

However, I see the Saints early days of drafting were mentioned in this article:

"(Kiper) collected the info in his annual Draft Report, in which he ranked hundreds of prospects by position—all this when as late as the 1960s, some NFL teams showed up on Draft Day with nothing more than a college football magazine."

That magazine would be Street and Smith...at least according to AFL historians
 

IceHot

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This goes to show that mock drafts are a crap shoot when they can only score 53 when they get a point for just getting the correct round (ie. I pick Mario Williams to go as 6th pick in the 1st round, but he goes as the 1st pick in the 1st round, since I got the round correct I get 1 point).

Out of 100 selections if your best score of your best expert is 53 points then I would say its a crap shoot for sure.

And just for comparison I have Rick Goeslins 1st round picks for 2005

Rick Gosselin's NFL mock draft (4/17)

1. San Francisco Aaron Rodgers QB Cal
Comment: Bay Area team, Bay Area quarterback

2. Miami Alex Smith QB Utah
Comment: Life hasn't been good without Dan Marino

3. Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
Comment: Trent Dilfer needs a go-to guy

4. Chicago Ronnie Brown HB Auburn
Comment: Bears finished 25th in rushing

5. Tampa Bay Cedric Benson HB Texas
Comment: Bucs finished 29th in rushing

6. Tennessee Antrel Rolle CB Miami-F
Comment: Replace one Rolle (Samari) with another

7. Minnesota Troy Williamson WR S. Carolina
Comment: Speed receiver to replace Randy Moss

8. Arizona Carnell Williams HB Auburn
Comment: Backfield vacancy with Emmitt gone

9. Washington Adam Jones CB West Virginia
Comment: Joe Gibbs drafts another Darrell Green

10. Detroit Derrick Johnson OLB Texas
Comment: Playmaker for a play-deficient defense

11. Dallas Marcus Spears DE LSU
Comment: Bill Parcells wants a defense with muscle

12. San Diego Shawne Merriman DE Maryland
Comment: NFL's 29th-ranked pass rush needs help

13. Houston Demarcus Ware OLB Troy
Comment: Best speed pass-rush in the draft

14. Carolina Erasmus James DE Wisconsin
Comment: The NFL's best defensive line gets better

15. Kansas City Thomas Davis S Georgia
Comment: A Roy Williams clone

16. New Orleans Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
Comment: NFL's 27th-ranked pass defense needs help

17. Cincinnati Mike Williams WR Southern Cal
Comment: Carson Palmer also threw to Williams at USC

18. Minnesota David Pollack DE Georgia
Comment: High-energy player to replace Chris Hovan

19. St. Louis Jammal Brown OT Oklahoma
Comment: Rams allowed 50 sacks

20. Dallas Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma
Comment: Best player on the board at this pick

21. Jacksonville Fabian Washington CB Nebraska
Comment: Needs someone to cover Marvin Harrison

22. Baltimore Alex Barron OT Florida State
Comment: Ravens like size and athleticism

23. Seattle Brodney Pool S Oklahoma
Comment: Best defender on the board at this pick

24. Green Bay Marlin Jackson CB Michigan
Comment: NFL's 25th-ranked pass defense needs help

25. Denver Marcus Johnson G Mississippi
Comment: Broncos need to replace Dan Neil

26. NY Jets Justin Miller CB Clemson
Comment: An elite returner to replace Santana Moss

27. Atlanta Matt Roth DE Iowa
Comment: You can never have enough pass rushers

28. San Diego Travis Johnson DT Florida State
Comment: True nose tackle for 3-4 scheme

29. Indianapolis Jonathan Babineaux DT Iowa
Comment: Best pass-rush tackle in the draft

30. Pittsburgh Heath Miller TE Virginia
Comment: Big body, big target for Ben Roethlisberger

31. Philadelphia Chris Spencer C Mississippi
Comment: Eagles continue stacking good players in queue

32. New England Odell Thurman MLB Georgia
Comment: Need to replace Tedy Bruschi

Notice out of the 32 picks he only got 19 within 5 places of where they were actually picked. In the same year Mel also got 18 within 5 places. One of Mel's better years where he got 7 dead on right.
 
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theSpaniard

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This goes to show that mock drafts are a crap shoot when they can only score 53 when they get a point for just getting the correct round (ie. I pick Mario Williams to go as 6th pick in the 1st round, but he goes as the 1st pick in the 1st round, since I got the round correct I get 1 point).

Out of 100 selections if your best score of your best expert is 53 points then I would say its a crap shoot for sure.

I think you are confused. The first chart on the page shows how many of the first 100 players selected were in the analyst's top 100 players. Gosselin averages 87.0 out of a possible 100.

The second chart has to do with the first round. 1 pt for projecting a player correctly in the first round, 2 for getting the correct round and team. That means there are 32 selections analyzed, and a perfect score would be 64. This is obviously much harder and while no one has a great success rate with it, Gosselin's 3 year average is almost 4 points better than second place, and an average of ~52 out of 64 is pretty good.


And just for comparison I have Rick Goeslins 1st round picks for 2005

Notice out of the 32 picks he only got 19 within 5 places of where they were actually picked. In the same year Mel also got 18 within 5 places. One of Mel's better years where he got 7 dead on right.

looks like 2005 was Gosselins worst year. In 2006 he scored a 57, which only one other person has done before.
 
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