Who is stronger come November - Another Clinton-Obama Thread (1 Viewer)

[JimEverett]

Interesting note. In the states where less than 4 points separated Kerry and Bush Obama has not won a single primary - only caucuses (where far far fewer people participate).
Colorado and Iowa were caucuses that Obama won. Nevada is a caucus Clinton won. New Hampshire and New Mexico were primaries that Clinton won.
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are coming up. You cannot feel real confident heading into November with Obama unless he carries at least 2 of those.

If you add in states where 6 or fewer points separated Kerry and Bush, nothing changes, but you deal with Florida and Michigan.
Obama won the caucus in Minnesota, Oregon has yet to hold their primary. Clinton won primaries in Michigan (only running against uncommitted) and Florida, two states where no one campaigned.

 

[Saintlady]

If Clinton wins, we would have had Clintons and Bushes in the White House for a long time.

Maybe too long?

 

[Saint Mike]

If Clinton wins, we would have had Clintons and Bushes in the White House for a long time.

Maybe too long?

Since 1981 - way too long.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Jim, nobody can say for certain whether Obama or Clinton would be the stronger candidate in November because of world or national events over the next eight months that might change considerably the issues voters are interested in--what if Iraq heats up, what if there is greater tension with Iran, what if there is another major terrorist attack on US soil, what if the economy improves, what if the economy sinks into a severe recession, what if oil prices dramatically increase.

But I can safely make three points.

1. At this time, the perception of a majority of Republican commentators and party officials is that Obama would be the stronger Democratic candidate in November.

Obama doesn't have the high negatives that Hillary has, he will not have Bill's baggage which is a negative for Republicans and independents, he has greater appeal to independents, and--most important--he will not unite the Republican party for McCain because, although conservative Republicans may dislike Obama's politics, they do not personally dislike him, whereas conservative Republicans strongly dislike Hillary.

2. Obama would be as strong a general election candidate in the big states as Hillary. The Hillary voters in the primaries will vote for Obama in a general election. On the other hand, the independents voting for Obama in the primaries might vote for McCain, and the under 30 vote will not turn out as strongly for Hillary as it will for Obama.

3. The voter segment the Hillary-Obama selection impacts most is Republican conservatives (for the reasons noted above). The Republicans want Hillary to be the nominee because they believe that only Hillary can truly unite the Republican party.