Who won tonight’s quarterback battle? (1 Viewer)

[dataussie]

ehh are we actually going back to 2019 stats to poke holes in his performance on MNF?

guess everything he has been working on the last 18 months means squat?

 

[BahGoonSa]

Interesting, great deep dive into the stats too. I have to counter that just the threat of those balls places the safeties at the normal 15 yards, possibly more, vs the 12 yards against injured/old Brees. Football is a game of inches and 3-5 yards is a whole lot of inches.

There is nothing bad here. The balls were accurate, he saw the read and anticipated the receiver. All good stuff. I'm just saying, this may be a case of Irrational Exuberance.

"Irrational exuberance" is the phrase used by the then-Federal Reserve Board chairman, Alan Greenspan, in a speech given at the American Enterprise Institute during the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. The phrase was interpreted as a warning that the stock market might be overvalued before the DOT COM bubble burst.

 

[BahGoonSa]

ehh are we actually going back to 2019 stats to poke holes in his performance on MNF?

guess everything he has been working on the last 18 months means squat?

No Holes. He was spectacular and the passes were near perfection. Just pointing out that statistically "For Any QB" those are low probability passes and that he took a gamble and won big. Replay both throws 17 times or once for every regular-season game. and statistically, it would break down like this:

• One of the two gets caught in just over 8 games
• Neither is caught in just over 7 games
• Both are caught in one game. (let's hope that game wasn't on Monday last)

As for his 2019 stats. Why do you take issue with that? It was his banner passing year. It is worth remembering he has Godwin and Evans to throw to that season, and both went to the Pro Bowl that year.

No one has ever said JW can't make spectacular throws. That was never his problem.

 

[Twyst]

No Holes. He was spectacular and the passes were near perfection. Just pointing out that statistically "For Any QB" those are low probability passes and that he took a gamble and won big. Replay both throws 17 times or once for every regular-season game. and statistically, it would break down like this:

• One of the two gets caught in just over 8 games
• Neither is caught in just over 7 games
• Both are caught in one game. (let's hope that game wasn't on Monday last)

As for his 2019 stats. Why do you take issue with that? It was his banner passing year. It is worth remembering he has Godwin and Evans to throw to that season, and both went to the Pro Bowl that year.

No one has ever said JW can't make spectacular throws. That was never his problem.

You didnt include PI calls on the throws as a possible outcome when you figured the stats. The location on the throws was perect, PI was called on the first and the second was iffy.

 

[BBarnes]

His two TD passes were exciting and I don't want to take anything away from them, but there are a few things to consider. His spectacular throws need some context.

The first throw was 46 air yards past the LOS. In 2019 JW had 3 completions in 10 attempts of 41+ AYPLOS and no TD's.

The second throw was 31 air yards past the LOS. In 2019 JW had 3 completions in 16 attempts of 31-35 AYPLOS and 2 TD's.

For all passes of 21+ air yards past the LOS he had 31 completions in 84 attempts and 8 TD's

A 37% completion rate for deep passes.

So in context. Against the worst team in the NFL, Jameis rolled the dice twice, threw two low percentage balls, and thanks to Callaway's spectacular catches hit the jackpot.

He owes Callaway a dinner at the best restaurant in the French Quarter.

Interesting side note. His 84 Deep pass attempts in 2019 only netted 6 of his 30 interceptions.

Bonus for stat nerds like me: using JW's 2019 stats his probability (using averages) was 0.333 on the first throw and 0.1875 on the second. The combined probability of completing both passes is 0.333 * 0.1875 = 0.06 or 6%

As I said. I think he felt it was now or never to pull away from Taysom and true to his risk-it reputation he took a big gamble.

But, we need to temper our jets if we think he is going to routinely repeat this feat against contender teams. Let's just hope he didn't use up his luck reserves in the preseason.

I stopped reading at “worst team in the league” because the second td was against one of the most sought after cornerbacks in free agency. A bonafide stud. Success on those two plays, and the accuracy of the throws has nothing to do with what jersey someone was wearing. This whole response lacked relevance

 

[BahGoonSa]

I stopped reading at “worst team in the league” because the second td was against one of the most sought after cornerbacks in free agency. A bonafide stud. Success on those two plays, and the accuracy of the throws has nothing to do with what jersey someone was wearing. This whole response lacked relevance

I stopped reading at I stopped reading. I see no basis for a conversation if neither chooses to read the other's post.

 

[BahGoonSa]

You didnt include PI calls on the throws as a possible outcome when you figured the stats. The location on the throws was perect, PI was called on the first and the second was iffy.

I left out Dome vs Open stadiums too and ...... I was just making a simple point that two balls in one game is nice but also an anomaly in the NFL. QB's have great games and bad games. People are taking these 13 minutes and extrapolating a whole season out of it. He's not a first-round ballotter yet is all I'm saying.

 

[Taker597]

I stopped reading at “worst team in the league” because the second td was against one of the most sought after cornerbacks in free agency. A bonafide stud. Success on those two plays, and the accuracy of the throws has nothing to do with what jersey someone was wearing. This whole response lacked relevance

Winston look better running the 2s vs. Baltimore than Hill did vs. Jags
Winston look better running the 1s vs. Jags than Hill did vs. Baltimore.

Winston perfectly read a cover 3 zone and diced them.Those passes had pinpoint accuracy and he don't understand certain like 0 blitz. It's situation where they brute force blitzing more man than we have to block. Winston called an audible and changed Calloway route. It was a perfect anticipation spot throw. Winston was throwing to the pylon. The WR did his job, but Winston made a fantastic elite QB play.

Also, Winston checkdown. He also protected Harris by throwing low in a crowd of 3 defenders. There was so many great little moment with Winston.

If some people can get past their disdain and just watch film. Winston played great just as much Calloway did

 

[BahGoonSa]

Winston look better running the 2s vs. Baltimore than Hill did vs. Jags
Winston look better running the 1s vs. Jags than Hill did vs. Baltimore.

Winston perfectly read a cover 3 zone and diced them.Those passes had pinpoint accuracy and he don't understand certain like 0 blitz. It's situation where they brute force blitzing more man than we have to block. Winston called an audible and changed Calloway route. It was a perfect anticipation spot throw. Winston was throwing to the pylon. The WR did his job, but Winston made a fantastic elite QB play.

Also, Winston checkdown. He also protected Harris by throwing low in a crowd of 3 defenders. There was so many great little moment with Winston.

If some people can get past their disdain and just watch film. Winston played great just as much Calloway did

I don't think any of us are claiming JW will never have a bad quarter someday where he does not move the ball or worse, he throws a pick-six. If he becomes a starter of course he will have a bad game now and then.

Someone else already mentioned the following point. What if that bad game had been last Monday? I doubt any of us would be writing him off on the basis of one bad quarter.

Can you see my point? Perspective tells us not to extrapolate a bad quarter or even a bad game or at the extreme end, 5 mediocre seasons into a career. By the same token, I'm just suggesting one great quarter is not a reliable barometer either.

 

[Blue]

I'm not crowning Jameis but I want to see what he can do with several starts. Taysom has had several uninspiring starts and if his level of play ends up having been better than Jameis' play we can go back to him.

 

[AmericanHeroJameis]

I stopped reading at “worst team in the league” because the second td was against one of the most sought after cornerbacks in free agency. A bonafide stud. Success on those two plays, and the accuracy of the throws has nothing to do with what jersey someone was wearing. This whole response lacked relevance

winston had sloppy mechanics in tampa. Winston worked tirlessly with drew brees qb coach this offseason to correct that. Even buc fans are noticing a difference in his mechanics and footwork

 

[No2DC]

I don't think any of us are claiming JW will never have a bad quarter someday where he does not move the ball or worse, he throws a pick-six. If he becomes a starter of course he will have a bad game now and then.

Someone else already mentioned the following point. What if that bad game had been last Monday? I doubt any of us would be writing him off on the basis of one bad quarter.

Can you see my point? Perspective tells us not to extrapolate a bad quarter or even a bad game or at the extreme end, 5 mediocre seasons into a career. By the same token, I'm just suggesting one great quarter is not a reliable barometer either.

I see you take pride in arguing the middle ground. However, I think a couple of things are worth noting. One, this is supposed to be a competition for the starting QB position. Hence, the competition will be judged on relatively small sample size, not a whole season. The amount of public info we have on Taysom is greater than Jameis. The only information we will get on Jameis, for purposes of this competition, will be limited to the preseason and the practice field since he has been in the building. When Russell Wilson beat out Flynn as a rookie Pete did not have some crystal ball that this guy would lead them to a Super Bowl win but he made a decision on what he saw in camp and the preseason. Two, Jameis has done all the things that are expected of him. He has bought into the team concept and worked on building relationships with his teammates (people talk about those great catches but no one mentions that he worked with these guys in the offseason) and growing as a QB. A decision has to be made on a limited amount of information and I do not see at this point how it can be anything other than we role with Jameis as the starting QB and see where it gets us.

 

[VA WHO DAT]

Calling it now: Taysom Hill throws a touchdown pass to Jameis Winston to win a regular season game.

would not be surprised in the slightest if this happened. Whenever Drew lined up a wideout when Taysom came in I always shook my head, but Winston is goofy-athletic enough to run a post

 

[JackDiesel]

winston had sloppy mechanics in tampa. Winston worked tirlessly with drew brees qb coach this offseason to correct that. Even buc fans are noticing a difference in his mechanics and footwork

I just read an article by a Bucs fan/writer asking where this version of Winston was in Tampa. Can't post the link thanks to having issues with the mobile site but I'm sure there are plenty out there.

 

[Bill]

That second TD to Callaway sealed it.

Let's face it, those two TD catches by Callaway really made Jameis look like a HOF'er. But if Callaway was unable to haul in those tight passes, the talk right now might be about how Winston tried to force passes to a well covered (even double-covered) receiver.

I believe Jameis did earn the starting job. But it was less about those two 'answered prayers' than it was about the rest of the good reads & passes that he pulled off during his time in the game. He is hungry and he seems to be ready to break out with running Sean Payton's style of offense. And no one can ask any more of him than that.