Who's Worthy of a Top 10 Pick (1 Viewer)

[jimrip]

Yes, Kiper is always right.... He's wrong far more than he's right.

Hmm.. you piqued my curiosity on this one. I went back to last year's draft (a VERY tough draft to pick as it turned out) and found the following:

1 Oakland JaMarcus Russell QB
2 Detroit Calvin Johnson WR
3 Cleveland Joe Thomas OT
4 Tampa Bay Gaines Adams DE
5 Arizona Levi Brown OT
6 Washington LaRon Landry FS
7 Minnesota Adrian Peterson RB
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE
9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR
10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT
11 San Francisco Patrick Willis ILB
12 Buffalo Marshawn Lynch RB
13 St. Louis Adam Carriker DE
14 N.Y. Jets Darrelle Revis CB
15 Pittsburgh Lawrence Timmons OLB
16 Green Bay Justin Harrell DT
17 Denver Jarvis Moss DE
18 Cincinnati Leon Hall CB
19 Tennessee Michael Griffin FS
20 N.Y. Giants Aaron Ross CB

Mel's Top 20 (* = picked in actual top 20)
*1. Calvin Johnson*, WR, Georgia Tech
*2. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
*3. Adrian Peterson*, RB, Oklahoma
*4. JaMarcus Russell*, QB, LSU
5. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
*6. LaRon Landry, DB, LSU
*7. Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
*8. Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
*9. Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
*10. Jamaal Anderson*, DE, Arkansas
11. Greg Olsen*, Miami, TE
*12. Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
*13. Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
*14. Jarvis Moss*, DE, Florida
*15. Ted Ginn Jr.*, WR, Ohio State
*16. Marshawn Lynch*, RB, California
*17. Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
*18. Lawrence Timmons*, LB, Florida St.
19. Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
20. Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

And the four that weren't picked in the top 20 went later in the first round! To take more than 2000 draft candidates and whittle them down to 20 and nail 100% of them in the first round? How is that "more wrong than right?" Did you even check? Jeez...

 

[Eeyore]

Kiper is usually right this time of year. It is after he sees those players in their underwear at the combine that he gets infatuated with certain players.

After the combine he is all about the "measureables" and forgets about skills.

 

[Kegger]

It would be a steal if we could land Matt Ryan at 10

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

No, Mel changes his rating often and at times dramatically from December through March. By April, with the draft information available, many can replicate Kiper's rankings with the top players.

 

[St.Ryan]

Hmm.. you piqued my curiosity on this one. I went back to last year's draft (a VERY tough draft to pick as it turned out) and found the following:

And when are those ratings from? The week before the draft?

We have this conversation every year with Kiper and every year he's completely off on many players. Is that to say he shouldn't have his job? No, but he's wrong fairly often. Very often.

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

Hmm.. you piqued my curiosity on this one. I went back to last year's draft (a VERY tough draft to pick as it turned out) and found the following:

1 Oakland JaMarcus Russell QB
2 Detroit Calvin Johnson WR
3 Cleveland Joe Thomas OT
4 Tampa Bay Gaines Adams DE
5 Arizona Levi Brown OT
6 Washington LaRon Landry FS
7 Minnesota Adrian Peterson RB
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE
9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR
10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT
11 San Francisco Patrick Willis ILB
12 Buffalo Marshawn Lynch RB
13 St. Louis Adam Carriker DE
14 N.Y. Jets Darrelle Revis CB
15 Pittsburgh Lawrence Timmons OLB
16 Green Bay Justin Harrell DT
17 Denver Jarvis Moss DE
18 Cincinnati Leon Hall CB
19 Tennessee Michael Griffin FS
20 N.Y. Giants Aaron Ross CB

Mel's Top 20 (* = picked in actual top 20)
*1. Calvin Johnson*, WR, Georgia Tech
*2. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
*3. Adrian Peterson*, RB, Oklahoma
*4. JaMarcus Russell*, QB, LSU
5. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
*6. LaRon Landry, DB, LSU
*7. Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
*8. Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
*9. Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
*10. Jamaal Anderson*, DE, Arkansas
11. Greg Olsen*, Miami, TE
*12. Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
*13. Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
*14. Jarvis Moss*, DE, Florida
*15. Ted Ginn Jr.*, WR, Ohio State
*16. Marshawn Lynch*, RB, California
*17. Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
*18. Lawrence Timmons*, LB, Florida St.
19. Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
20. Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn

And the four that weren't picked in the top 20 went later in the first round! To take more than 2000 draft candidates and whittle them down to 20 and nail 100% of them in the first round? How is that "more wrong than right?" Did you even check? Jeez...

His March 18 Mock...

1) Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
2) Detroit: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
3) Cleveland: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
4) Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5) Arizona: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6) Washington: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
7) Minnesota: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
8) Houston: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
9) Miami: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
10) Atlanta: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
11) San Francisco: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
12) Buffalo: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
13) St. Louis: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
14) Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami, Fla.
15) STEELERS: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
16) Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17) Jacksonville: Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State
18) Cincinnati: Jon Beason, LB, Miami, Fla.
19) Tennessee: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
20) NY Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State

April 16 Mock

1) Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
2) Detroit: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
3) Cleveland: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
4) Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5) Arizona: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6) Washington: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
7) Minnesota: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
8) Atlanta: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
9) Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
10) Houston: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
11) San Francisco: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
12) Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss.
13) St. Louis: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
14) Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
15) STEELERS: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
16) Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17) Jacksonville: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
18) Cincinnati: Darrelle Revis, CB, PITT
19) Tennessee: Ted Ginn, Jr, WR, Ohio State
20) NY Giants: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan

And for the record, I don't need to check. You got me to do it though.ahhaa. I watch the draft every year and pay attention to what he said for awhile now and I know he likes to literally throw players around.

I checked your info, and It looks like you looked at his final big board in April, We all know he has enough connections to get a feel for every team's big board and where they rated each player. That is his only value imo,

Feburary 12th Big board seems to be a little more fair don't you think?

1) Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech previous: same
2) Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin previous: same
3) Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma previous: same
4) JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU previous: 5
5) Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas previous: 6
6) LaRon Landry, DB, LSU previous: 11
7) Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville previous: 9
8) Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson previous: 10
9) Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame previous 4
10) Tedd Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State previous 8
11) Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St previous 19
12) Levi Brown, OT, Penn State previous same
13) Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia previous same
14) Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC previous same
15) Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska previous same
16) Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU previous 18
17) Reggie Nelson, S, Florida previous 16
18) Craig Davis, WR, LSU previous unranked
19) Leon Hall, CB, Michigan previous 17
20) Alan Branch, DT, Michigan previoius 7
21) Sidney Rice, WR, S. Carolina previous sam

In Feburary, the top 10 was easy to nail down and anyone could have guessed what he did during this time.

Branch, Rice, Davis, Nelson, Bowe, Jarett, Johnson, Quinn, and Nelson were not selected in the top 20.

I can care less about his final big board, most people usually come with the same top 20-30 rated players by that time. His mock is pretty bad and his info about which teams are learning towards certain players are a crapshoot. And when teams do not take the players he assumes they do, he would jump all over them for it. He used to be pretty good at it and teams use to feed him good info but that haven't happened in years.

 

[Rugger]

I have seen him mentioned a couple of times on the board, but I would like to see what Cason stock does at the combine. I think he is a real sleeper for the top 15. If he puts up a good 40 time I think he can move right around the top ten.

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

Let's go a little further.. Let's go into his January 08 Big board...

1. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (6-2,292)
2. Jake Long, OT, Michigan (6-6, 320)
3. Chris Long, DE, Virginia Tech (6-4, 282)
4. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College (6-4, 223)
5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (6-1, 297)
6. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina (6-4, 298)
7. Sam Baker, OT, USC (6-4, 310)
8. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State (6-2, 231)
9. Fred Davis, TE, USC (6-4, 253)
10. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt (6-5, 318)
11. Keith Rivers, LB, USC (6-3, 233)
12. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville (6-3, 223)
13. Ali Highsmith, LB, LSU (6-1, 225)
14. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas (6-4, 217)
15. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (6-5, 339)
16. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida (5-11, 202)
17. Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC (6-4, 266)
18. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (5-10, 185)
19. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina (5-10, 200)
20. Bruce Davis, LB, UCLA (6-2, 233)
21. Early Doucet, WR, LSU (5-11, 205)
22. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana (5-10, 183)
23. Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn (6-3, 251)
24. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska ((6-5, 345)
25. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston (5-11, 185)

He claims Talib will be the first corner taken and he stated that the guy will be a top 10 pick, and yet he didn't even put him in his own top 25. He had Jenkins, Porter, and Mckelvin on there.

 

[canuckredux]

Kiper also had Mike Williams as his #1 overall prospect... then again, a lot of people had him projected very high. Senior Bowl, Combine, Mayock. If they justify Kiper's claims, then that's a pretty good endorsement.

 

[jimrip]

Let's go a little further.. Let's go into his January 08 Big board...

1. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (6-2,292)
2. Jake Long, OT, Michigan (6-6, 320)
3. Chris Long, DE, Virginia Tech (6-4, 282)
4. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College (6-4, 223)
5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (6-1, 297)
6. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina (6-4, 298)
7. Sam Baker, OT, USC (6-4, 310)
8. Dan Connor, LB, Penn State (6-2, 231)
9. Fred Davis, TE, USC (6-4, 253)
10. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt (6-5, 318)
11. Keith Rivers, LB, USC (6-3, 233)
12. Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville (6-3, 223)
13. Ali Highsmith, LB, LSU (6-1, 225)
14. Limas Sweed, WR, Texas (6-4, 217)
15. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (6-5, 339)
16. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida (5-11, 202)
17. Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC (6-4, 266)
18. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (5-10, 185)
19. Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina (5-10, 200)
20. Bruce Davis, LB, UCLA (6-2, 233)
21. Early Doucet, WR, LSU (5-11, 205)
22. Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana (5-10, 183)
23. Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn (6-3, 251)
24. Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska ((6-5, 345)
25. Donnie Avery, WR, Houston (5-11, 185)

He claims Talib will be the first corner taken and he stated that the guy will be a top 10 pick, and yet he didn't even put him in his own top 25. He had Jenkins, Porter, and Mckelvin on there.

Ya think maybe it'll change when he includes the underclassmen (Talib is a junior) on the next board? After they declare their intentions? Think maybe that's why McFadden, Laurinaitis, Gholston, Phillips, et al are not on there either?

 

[Scott B]

His March 18 Mock...

1) Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
2) Detroit: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
3) Cleveland: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
4) Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5) Arizona: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6) Washington: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
7) Minnesota: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
8) Houston: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
9) Miami: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
10) Atlanta: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
11) San Francisco: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
12) Buffalo: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
13) St. Louis: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
14) Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami, Fla.
15) STEELERS: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
16) Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17) Jacksonville: Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State
18) Cincinnati: Jon Beason, LB, Miami, Fla.
19) Tennessee: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
20) NY Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State

April 16 Mock

1) Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
2) Detroit: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
3) Cleveland: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
4) Tampa Bay: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5) Arizona: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6) Washington: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
7) Minnesota: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
8) Atlanta: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
9) Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
10) Houston: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
11) San Francisco: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
12) Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss.
13) St. Louis: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
14) Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
15) STEELERS: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
16) Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17) Jacksonville: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
18) Cincinnati: Darrelle Revis, CB, PITT
19) Tennessee: Ted Ginn, Jr, WR, Ohio State
20) NY Giants: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan

And for the record, I don't need to check. You got me to do it though.ahhaa. I watch the draft every year and pay attention to what he said for awhile now and I know he likes to literally throw players around.

I checked your info, and It looks like you looked at his final big board in April, We all know he has enough connections to get a feel for every team's big board and where they rated each player. That is his only value imo,

Feburary 12th Big board seems to be a little more fair don't you think?

1) Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech previous: same
2) Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin previous: same
3) Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma previous: same
4) JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU previous: 5
5) Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas previous: 6
6) LaRon Landry, DB, LSU previous: 11
7) Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville previous: 9
8) Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson previous: 10
9) Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame previous 4
10) Tedd Ginn, Jr., WR, Ohio State previous 8
11) Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St previous 19
12) Levi Brown, OT, Penn State previous same
13) Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia previous same
14) Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC previous same
15) Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska previous same
16) Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU previous 18
17) Reggie Nelson, S, Florida previous 16
18) Craig Davis, WR, LSU previous unranked
19) Leon Hall, CB, Michigan previous 17
20) Alan Branch, DT, Michigan previoius 7
21) Sidney Rice, WR, S. Carolina previous sam

In Feburary, the top 10 was easy to nail down and anyone could have guessed what he did during this time.

Branch, Rice, Davis, Nelson, Bowe, Jarett, Johnson, Quinn, and Nelson were not selected in the top 20.

I can care less about his final big board, most people usually come with the same top 20-30 rated players by that time. His mock is pretty bad and his info about which teams are learning towards certain players are a crapshoot. And when teams do not take the players he assumes they do, he would jump all over them for it. He used to be pretty good at it and teams use to feed him good info but that haven't happened in years.

to be fair, his mock in March was while FA was hot and heavy, so by April, teams needs change.

 

[Danchrism]

In a minute, I am going to edit the original post. Chris Long was an obvious omission. Oversight.

My question about Rivers is size. If he weighs in the 240's and runs a great 40 time in workouts, he'll move up.

He's 237, runs like a safety, hits like an MLB. What's ~3 pounds

 

[supersaint15]

more like 220-230

 

[MLU]

If you're talking predicting a mock draft, Kiper is horrible. It's almost like he doesn't have any connections in the NFL. That cat from the Dallas paper throws his out the night before and usually nails it.

If you're talking about talent evaluation, the number one spot is reserved to Joel Buchsbaum. I'm pretty partial to Mike Detillier over Kiper and Mayock who both rate about even.

Had Joel Buchsbaum not been such a recluse, no one would knoe who Mel Kiper was...

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

The question is just how big is Rivers--and if he beefs up for the combine, what his 40 time then will be. In the past, Rivers has been listed in the 225-230 range, which probably means closer to and a tad under 225.

We will find out what happens during Senior Bowl week and at the combine. But looking at Kiper's and now Detillier's list of top players, there is at this time a rough consensus.

In the top five or so are McFadden, Dorsey (assuming healthy), Ellis, Jake Long and Chris Long.

In the next grouping are players like Matt Ryan, Vernon Gholston, Calais Campbell, Kenny Phillips, Ryan Clady, Jonathan Stewart, DeSean Jackson, and Kenny Phillips, with perhaps players like Keith Rivers (depending upon combine results) and a cornerback (if one emerges during Senior Bowl week) entering the second tier.

My questions before Senior Bowl week:

--Will a senior cornerback emerge during the Senior Bowl practices and separate himself from the pack?

--Just how big is Keith Rivers?

--What are the 40 times? Especially important for the running backs, Jackson, defensive ends, Rivers, Phillips and any emerging cornerback.

--Will freakish athletes like Gholston and Campbell soar in the rankings because of workouts with one or both jumping ahead of Chris Long?

--Is Glenn Dorsey healthy? He was not dominant in the Ohio State game.

My point is that the Saints at 10 are well positioned to pick a good player in this draft and that the rankings are going to undergo some adjustment in the next six weeks.