Why do so many people think Joe Burrow will be great in the NFL? (1 Viewer)

BCK30

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No this isn't meant to be an anti Joe Burrow thread. I think he has done great at LSU and deserves to be a high 1st round pick. But why is everyone so sure he will light it up in the NFL? Yes, he played in a spread offense similar to the Saints but he also had great playmakers around him. Will he have that with the team that drafts him? And why do so many people think the Saints would mortgage everything to obtain Burrow? I just don't see it. I want Joe Burrow to succeed and would love if somehow he became a Saint. But not at the cost of destroying a team that just won 13 games.
 

bobad

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There is so much to like his biggest weaknesses, doesnt have the strongest arm but enough to easily make all the throws. Sometimes he is too aggressive and will extend plays looking for the big play wh ed n he could check it down. He sometimes will trust his receivers too much which may lead to occasional pics.

But yeah, Saints arent getting him so quit worrying about it.
I see his arm strength as an asset. QB's with average to below-average arm strength compensate with accuracy and timing. His arm strength is about like Brady's in his prime, slightly stronger than Drew's.

Agree about his aggressiveness and too much trust. He had some real stud WR's to rely on, but probably will again in (hack) Cincinnati. He'll have to be reined in, and may have a rough start until he gets a feel for Pro defenses.
 

BoNcHiE

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I've given no criticism of Burrow because I don't think he deserves much. He's as good a prospect coming out of college as you'd want except for the age issue.

There is a bit of "throw up and hope it's caught" in his game and that was helped by an incredible group of WRs. He's very, very aggressive, and that doesn't always work against NFL caliber DBs. He could be a guy who has to be taught to dial it back once in the pros to avoid turnovers. Burrow is also not an elite athlete. He's got good size and mobility, but he doesn't have a Russell Wilson-type arm.

Lastly, there's the one year wonder aspect. It's always a concern when a guy goes from looking like a 5th or 6th round pick to the 1st pick in one season.

So there, that's me straining point out any negatives. I'd still love to have him if it weren't an impossibility.
 

Loose Cannon

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Incredibly high floor...probably the highest floor of any college QB that I've seen since Andrew Luck. The reasons are laid out well by @bclemms. He just doesn't have many flaws, and he seems to most importantly be a very hard worker and expects greatness. I can see him being an AVERAGE QB...see Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning...but I just can't envision a scenario that he is below that tier (barring injury, which can be said for any prospect). He just put up one of the great seasons in college football history, and I think that every bit of it is transferable to the NFL...unlikely many of the QBs before him that put up gaudy stats and won big games.
I don't think you can say that a guy who didn't take a single snap from under center in his breakout season has a high floor. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer that Burrow is a star, but there's some inherent risk there. The league is littered with talented guys who played in spread offenses in college that struggled with the transition (ie Baker Mayfield). He also only has one season of top level tape. There are a few things that could present some risk.
 

HogsNSaints

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I feel like this draft season I have had to defend LSU prospects like crazy and it’s really not a great feeling for me.

I have no ties or fan-ship to Burrow as a player and I generally root against the SEC in meaningful games, so my opinion comes strictly from what I’ve seen. Analyzing his quality of play from this past season, good luck finding a hole.

Does he have a hand cannon to launch the ball 70 yards down the field like a Mahomes? No. But how many play designs ask for a 70 yard post? The way the guy sticks to schedule and rhythm in a west coast system is legendary. The guys I’ve seen do it to the level he does? Brady, Brees, that’s it. The speed with which he’s reading the defense and going to the right guy, he already looks like a polished veteran. The reason experts are finding it hard to find a comp for him is because he’s the most pro ready reader of coverages, maybe in draft history.
 

NOLAJM504

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But not at the cost of destroying a team that just won 13 games.
What does it matter if we find a way to get trounced too early in the playoffs every year? To me, that's as good as being "destroyed", as you put it.
 

0rion

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I think Bradford would have been great if he was more durable. Never amounted to anything? He was a deadly accurate passer, 1 of the most accurate I have ever seen. That should count for something.
Never amounted to anything was probably too strongly worded....how about never lived up to the hype?
 

The Moose

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What does it matter if we find a way to get trounced too early in the playoffs every year? To me, that's as good as being "destroyed", as you put it.

That surely is a guy that did not endure the true lean years😁

As a guy that lived thru way too many dudes named Billy Joe that is the last thing I ever want.
 

Swimmer

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Incredibly high floor...probably the highest floor of any college QB that I've seen since Andrew Luck. The reasons are laid out well by @bclemms. He just doesn't have many flaws, and he seems to most importantly be a very hard worker and expects greatness. I can see him being an AVERAGE QB...see Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning...but I just can't envision a scenario that he is below that tier (barring injury, which can be said for any prospect). He just put up one of the great seasons in college football history, and I think that every bit of it is transferable to the NFL...unlikely many of the QBs before him that put up gaudy stats and won big games.
Be careful Sammy! I can hear LC's keyboard refuting that with Vince Young had the greatest QB season in history - lol. Actually, I loved VY out of college and what he did to Pete Carol and his team in the Championship game was for the ages.
 

Swimmer

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He's very, very aggressive, and that doesn't always work against NFL caliber DBs. He could be a guy who has to be taught to dial it back once in the pros to avoid turnovers. Burrow is also not an elite athlete. He's got good size and mobility, but he doesn't have a Russell Wilson-type arm.
Interestingly, that could have been said for a young QB we acquired in 2006, named Drew Brees. Sean Payton worked with Brees to deliver the best QB of his time (OK Brady, but I'm in a Saints homer mode today. And give me a break today from the neg Nancy's on the Coach Pete thread. I need some sunshine and quality lies - lol)

Hey Bonchie- One of the SSF Who Dats posted a real nice piece on analyzing the estimated draft points required for us to move up to #1. Even with Armstead, that still wouldn't get us to 3,000 points. Is this what you have been seeing that makes this highly unlikely in your view? Thx much
 

BoNcHiE

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Hey Bonchie- One of the SSF Who Dats posted a real nice piece on analyzing the estimated draft points required for us to move up to #1. Even with Armstead, that still wouldn't get us to 3,000 points. Is this what you have been seeing that makes this highly unlikely in your view? Thx much
I hadn't even looked at the points. I think it's impossible because 1) we don't have the draft capital even if we wanted to do it (coaching staffs don't care about 1st rounders 3-4 years from now because they'll be fired by then if they don't start winning) and 2) the Bengals can not pass on Burrow for any amount. It'd be franchise suicide by them to do so.
 

Kris

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Hershall Walker did wonders for Dallas and got em a few super bowls, didn't do much for the Vikings who paid WAYYYYY too dearly for him. I'm thinking Burrows could have almost as strong an effect for Cincinnati and hurt the Saints who will pay Wayyyyyy too much if they trade for the first for him. Rarely is one player worth all of that. Even if he is God's gift to the position of QB he could have a CEI right out of the box just like Bo Jackson.

Kris
 

los226

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I've seen too many times the next greatest qb of all time before he's taken his first NFL snap. Sam Bradford always comes to mind. He was touted as the next great one and never amounted to anything. For every 1 qb that has staying power and almost lives up to the hype there's 20 that don't. More often than not the QB's that do well aren't talked about all that much.
Sam Bradford was the gift that kept on giving for teams. He amounted to a lot of good draft picks for multiple teams lol
 
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I think what made him successful in college translates directly to the NFL. Usually, college QBs are asked to run a totally different system than they see in the pros. It's usually predicated more on the run game, the QB running the ball and/or taking deep shots. Joe throwing the ball was the offense. He was a distributor and attacked all levels of the field. That isn't done very often in major college programs. Especially with the level of accuracy and success he had. He had a lot more on his plate and had to make a lot more decisions than a normal QB that goes pro.

I don't know if he will make a team successful on his own but any decent offensive coordinator should be able to put enough around him to make him successful.
 

SaintJ

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I agree with your assessment, but I think the biggest question as to whether or not he becomes great depends on if he ends up with a great coach with a good team around him.
That's pretty much everybody.

There was Tampa Bay Steve Young and then there was San Francisco Steve Young. Not the same guy.
 

Meachemdat

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I question whether many even watched a LSU game this year. A lot of his greatness was his ability to extend the play and launch it downfield.

Why will he be successful? Look at what he did and how he set the records for completion %, TD’s, completions and Yards against arguably one of the toughest schedules out there.

The only QB prospect that I can remember being this good coming out of college was Manning.
Now if he goes to a crap team with a crap coach the team will be crap, just like with any QB. Drew went 7-9 in 3 straight seasons...see how that works.
 

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