Why I think long term signing Carr was a mistake. (1 Viewer)

[ravenblade23x]

I will start of by saying that I am excited about Saint's football in 2023. I like Carr as a person and player. Jamaal Williams is going to be fun to watch on and off the field. We will be completive and unless something major changes will be the favorites to win the South. As a Saint's fan the idea that come next Jan. we will likely be watching playoff football is something to be excited for. Having said that I will now make the case as to why I think the Carr signing will likely be a mistake in the long wrong.

Team Age:

Last year the Saint's ranked the 5th oldest team at 27 year 2 months. This is even more evident when you look at skill positions.

QB - Carr 31
ER - Cam Jordon 34
WR- Mike Thomas 30
CB- Marshon Lattimore 27
RT- Ryan Ramczyk 29
RB - Alvin Kamara 28
LB - Demario Davis 34

Outside of Olave and Warner we don't have a ton of young talent. The window is closing and you could make the argument it already closed.

Salary Cap:

Yep lets talk about the cap. I have zero issues with kicking the can and trying to stay relevant, when we had a future HOF quarterback. It's always going to come due at some point and this seemed like a great time to start that process. The restructuring has also limited are ability to trade players and attempt to gain future draft picks. The Panthers got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks for Christian Mccaffrey. It would be nice to have the flexibility to unload some of the aging talent for future picks while they still have value. I love Alvin Kamara, but we are paying $8 million for a RB that will likely miss a third of the year that has a cap hit next year of $18 million.

Coaching:

I am just not sold on DA and Pete C. I feel like I did last season with a lot of optimism, to be honest I need to see. 90% of this board wanted the entire coaching staff fired just a few months ago. While I do think we will be favored in the South, I think it might be closer then people think. I just don't have a ton of faith. What's more a NFC South title likely saves DA for another year. I just don't think he is the answer long term.

Draft:

The Saint's have struggled in the draft, while Olave is trending in the right direction, we have a lot of 1st round misses. I am still worried we will continue the trend of moving up in the draft and trading away future picks to climb up after another player the team falls in love with. I know you can find ways to justify the Philly trade but having a top 10 pick now would be huge.

Conclusion:

I keep asking myself what the ceiling on this team is and keep landing on a wild-card weekend win at best. Is a couple of playoff appearances over the next couple of years worth waiting on the inevitable rebuild that is coming. Sure we have a shot at a Super Bowl but even the most die hard Saint knows that is a longshot. As an interesting note that Saints have only drafted 1 QB in the 1st round in franchise history. 52 years ago we drafted Archie Manning in 1971. The last 24 Super Bowl winners 12 where 1st round picks. If you take away TB12's 7 that's 5 other Super Bowl winning QB's that where not 1st round selections. I would love for us to buck that trend again, but the odds are against it.

Would love to here thoughts, anyone else out there in the wish we had started a rebuild camp? What do you think is the most realistic outcome for the team over the next couple of years?

 

[Saint Spud]

I understand the concerns. A few counterpoints:

The age of the roster is the reason why you take another couple swings.

Carr may not be a HOF-er. But you can make the case he’s the second best QB in the NFC behind Hurts. At the very least, he’s In the same “tier” of QBs after Hurts (Prescott, Cousins, etc).

The idea that it’s a “mistake” is somewhat predicated on the idea that we will eventually pay for the salary cap stuff with a multi year rebuild. It doesn’t have to happen that way.

I don’t think anyone can say with certainty what this team’s ceiling is. What if we finally have a year where all the top players stay relatively healthy? Healthy MT, OLine, DBs, etc.

I just don’t think you can write this team off if things fall right. I don’t think they’re as good, top to bottom, as Philly or SF. But I’m not putting anyone else definitively ahead of them (maybe Dallas) and anything can happen in a single elimination tournament.

 

[SaintsMan209]

Young players will grow into our system because of all of our wiley vets. I trust them to manage the age of the players. these guys know when to ship people off and when to keep them.

 

[jayd265]

Teams that fully rebuild rarely become relevant and win super bowls quickly IMO.
I like staying around .500 with chances to steal a few wins to make a decent win/loss record.

Also. Salary cap is a myth

 

[brickfish]

The Saints have drafted fairly well, certainly no worse than the league average.

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

It's really only a 2 year commitment. It's not a long term deal. They can move on from him if it doesn't work out. 2 years is adequate time to see if there's something there.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

I will start of by saying that I am excited about Saint's football in 2023. I like Carr as a person and player. Jamaal Williams is going to be fun to watch on and off the field. We will be completive and unless something major changes will be the favorites to win the South. As a Saint's fan the idea that come next Jan. we will likely be watching playoff football is something to be excited for. Having said that I will now make the case as to why I think the Carr signing will likely be a mistake in the long wrong.

Team Age:

Last year the Saint's ranked the 5th oldest team at 27 year 2 months. This is even more evident when you look at skill positions.

QB - Carr 31
ER - Cam Jordon 34
WR- Mike Thomas 30
CB- Marshon Lattimore 27
RT- Ryan Ramczyk 29
RB - Alvin Kamara 28
LB - Demario Davis 34

Outside of Olave and Warner we don't have a ton of young talent. The window is closing and you could make the argument it already closed.

Salary Cap:

Yep lets talk about the cap. I have zero issues with kicking the can and trying to stay relevant, when we had a future HOF quarterback. It's always going to come due at some point and this seemed like a great time to start that process. The restructuring has also limited are ability to trade players and attempt to gain future draft picks. The Panthers got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks for Christian Mccaffrey. It would be nice to have the flexibility to unload some of the aging talent for future picks while they still have value. I love Alvin Kamara, but we are paying $8 million for a RB that will likely miss a third of the year that has a cap hit next year of $18 million.

Coaching:

I am just not sold on DA and Pete C. I feel like I did last season with a lot of optimism, to be honest I need to see. 90% of this board wanted the entire coaching staff fired just a few months ago. While I do think we will be favored in the South, I think it might be closer then people think. I just don't have a ton of faith. What's more a NFC South title likely saves DA for another year. I just don't think he is the answer long term.

Draft:

The Saint's have struggled in the draft, while Olave is trending in the right direction, we have a lot of 1st round misses. I am still worried we will continue the trend of moving up in the draft and trading away future picks to climb up after another player the team falls in love with. I know you can find ways to justify the Philly trade but having a top 10 pick now would be huge.

Conclusion:

I keep asking myself what the ceiling on this team is and keep landing on a wild-card weekend win at best. Is a couple of playoff appearances over the next couple of years worth waiting on the inevitable rebuild that is coming. Sure we have a shot at a Super Bowl but even the most die hard Saint knows that is a longshot. As an interesting note that Saints have only drafted 1 QB in the 1st round in franchise history. 52 years ago we drafted Archie Manning in 1971. The last 24 Super Bowl winners 12 where 1st round picks. If you take away TB12's 7 that's 5 other Super Bowl winning QB's that where not 1st round selections. I would love for us to buck that trend again, but the odds are against it.

Would love to here thoughts, anyone else out there in the wish we had started a rebuild camp? What do you think is the most realistic outcome for the team over the next couple of years?

I agree with you on all of that. The good news within the bad news is that there arent any excuses anymore for the coaches. You sold us on continuity then after one season had to re-build your own staff due to differences w/ existing staff. So now this is Dennis Allen's Saints, if they fail, its his arse...and he'll never be a HC again. That's the good news, the bad news is that we then have to purge all of those guys listed and start over.

What is success...to me its a deep playoff run, not a 8-9 fumble to WC weekend just to save DA's job. I don't care about his job, I want to win and be meaningful...that's who we're supposed to be. anything less...he should be gone.

For Pete, we need to field a top 12 offense, if he can't get us that, he needs to be fired.

 

[Infoman]

There was literally nothing better available from a risk reward standpoint. Especially if you want to win this year. Is what it is.

 

[ravenblade23x]

I understand the concerns. A few counterpoints:



The idea that it’s a “mistake” is somewhat predicated on the idea that we will eventually pay for the salary cap stuff with a multi year rebuild. It doesn’t have to happen that way.

I struggle to see how we don't hit a mulit year rebuild. Maybe if we draft perfect over the next 2-3 years but we stand to lose most of are veteran skill spots in that time period. One thing I forgot to mention is the possibility of drafting a young QB in the later rounds and maybe getting lucky that way. I am kind of high on the idea of drafting Hooker and sitting him behind Carr for a couple of years.

 

[ravenblade23x]

Teams that fully rebuild rarely become relevant and win super bowls quickly IMO.
I like staying around .500 with chances to steal a few wins to make a decent win/loss record.

Also. Salary cap is a myth

My wife just asked why I was laughing so hard. To be honest not 100% sure if this is a sarcastic post or if your being serious.

 

[Saint Spud]

I struggle to see how we don't hit a mulit year rebuild. Maybe if we draft perfect over the next 2-3 years but we stand to lose most of are veteran skill spots in that time period. One thing I forgot to mention is the possibility of drafting a young QB in the later rounds and maybe getting lucky that way. I am kind of high on the idea of drafting Hooker and sitting him behind Carr for a couple of years.

Because you have to restock the talent regardless. Signing Carr doesn’t preclude us from attempting to draft well. In fact, we didn’t have to give up a pick for him, so our capital is in tact.

Wrt Hooker, if you love him, you still take him. You don’t pass on a highly rated QB just because you signed one.

 

[Saint Spud]

My wife just asked why I was laughing so hard. To be honest not 100% sure if this is a sarcastic post or if you’re being serious.

Where is he wrong? Bengals lucked out with Burrow. There’s a long list of teams who failed, whiffed on a QB, and continuously end up in the same situation.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

I will start of by saying that I am excited about Saint's football in 2023. I like Carr as a person and player. Jamaal Williams is going to be fun to watch on and off the field. We will be completive and unless something major changes will be the favorites to win the South. As a Saint's fan the idea that come next Jan. we will likely be watching playoff football is something to be excited for. Having said that I will now make the case as to why I think the Carr signing will likely be a mistake in the long wrong.

Team Age:

Last year the Saint's ranked the 5th oldest team at 27 year 2 months. This is even more evident when you look at skill positions.

QB - Carr 31
ER - Cam Jordon 34
WR- Mike Thomas 30
CB- Marshon Lattimore 27
RT- Ryan Ramczyk 29
RB - Alvin Kamara 28
LB - Demario Davis 34

Outside of Olave and Warner we don't have a ton of young talent. The window is closing and you could make the argument it already closed.

Salary Cap:

Yep lets talk about the cap. I have zero issues with kicking the can and trying to stay relevant, when we had a future HOF quarterback. It's always going to come due at some point and this seemed like a great time to start that process. The restructuring has also limited are ability to trade players and attempt to gain future draft picks. The Panthers got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks for Christian Mccaffrey. It would be nice to have the flexibility to unload some of the aging talent for future picks while they still have value. I love Alvin Kamara, but we are paying $8 million for a RB that will likely miss a third of the year that has a cap hit next year of $18 million.

Coaching:

I am just not sold on DA and Pete C. I feel like I did last season with a lot of optimism, to be honest I need to see. 90% of this board wanted the entire coaching staff fired just a few months ago. While I do think we will be favored in the South, I think it might be closer then people think. I just don't have a ton of faith. What's more a NFC South title likely saves DA for another year. I just don't think he is the answer long term.

Draft:

The Saint's have struggled in the draft, while Olave is trending in the right direction, we have a lot of 1st round misses. I am still worried we will continue the trend of moving up in the draft and trading away future picks to climb up after another player the team falls in love with. I know you can find ways to justify the Philly trade but having a top 10 pick now would be huge.

Conclusion:

I keep asking myself what the ceiling on this team is and keep landing on a wild-card weekend win at best. Is a couple of playoff appearances over the next couple of years worth waiting on the inevitable rebuild that is coming. Sure we have a shot at a Super Bowl but even the most die hard Saint knows that is a longshot. As an interesting note that Saints have only drafted 1 QB in the 1st round in franchise history. 52 years ago we drafted Archie Manning in 1971. The last 24 Super Bowl winners 12 where 1st round picks. If you take away TB12's 7 that's 5 other Super Bowl winning QB's that where not 1st round selections. I would love for us to buck that trend again, but the odds are against it.

Would love to here thoughts, anyone else out there in the wish we had started a rebuild camp? What do you think is the most realistic outcome for the team over the next couple of years?

You didn’t hire Allen and sell continuity to the fan base to rebuild. You damn sure don’t reverse course one year after the original sell.

You could but it would be wishy washy. It would suggest lack of conviction in original plan.

So you stay the course. The Carr deal is basically a two year deal and Saints can get out of it after.

It’s same amount of time I expect Allen to be here if he can’t win starting in 2023. If Team fails again his scape goat will be Carmichael.

After that he’ll get the 3rd year and a short leash and then you can reset after. By that time you’ll have walked away from the old 2017 nucleus that’s still holding this team together.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

Because you have to restock the talent regardless. Signing Carr doesn’t preclude us from attempting to draft well. In fact, we didn’t have to give up a pick for him, so our capital is in tact.

Wrt Hooker, if you love him, you still take him. You don’t pass on a highly rated QB just because you signed one.

Uh....yeah you do. Especially when you're talking in the 1st round. We just signed Carr...I'm not going to burn a 1st or a 2nd to take a QB. If this were the 4th, 5th round and you found a sure thing prospect with a little bit of a coke habit, then maybe you take him. But 1st - 3rd, I'm taking BPA that's not a lineman at position of need that isn't a lineman.

 

[OutlawSaint]

There's other rising stars/good players such as Alontae Taylor and Shaheed. We might very well get some more good impact from rookies again this year. Also throw in Jamal Williams who is a perfect Ingram replacement that is also younger