Why I think long term signing Carr was a mistake. (1 Viewer)


Please read up on how the salary cap is manipulated by Loomis. Those are his cap hits. For salary cap purposes we are not paying 35 million this year and next year and done.
 
Saints are not in a position to draft a 1st rd QB. They do not have what they need to move all the way up to get one without losing lots of draft capital. The Chiefs got lucky, they jumped ahead of the Saints who were about to draft Mahomes. You keep saying that those teams drafted a QB in the 1st round. Mac Jones...jury is still out. Same with Kenny Pickett. The chances of getting that franchise QB are slim to none. So you start a rebuild, draft a 1st rd QB, he's a bust and you're right back to where you were for the next 30 years....rebuilding and sucking.

How many teams have a "franchise QB" and, or how is one even defined?
Fans would probably say Patrick Mahomes , Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen , and Joe Burrow are franchise QB's. That's 4 teams out of 32, which means 85% of teams don't have a franchise QB.
Do you believe the next group of names such as Dak Prescott , Rusell Wilson, Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence are truly franchise QB's?
 

Please read up on how the salary cap is manipulated by Loomis. Those are his cap hits. For salary cap purposes we are not paying 35 million this year and next year and done.
Yes, I know.
 
I will start of by saying that I am excited about Saint's football in 2023. I like Carr as a person and player. Jamaal Williams is going to be fun to watch on and off the field. We will be completive and unless something major changes will be the favorites to win the South. As a Saint's fan the idea that come next Jan. we will likely be watching playoff football is something to be excited for. Having said that I will now make the case as to why I think the Carr signing will likely be a mistake in the long wrong.

Team Age:

Last year the Saint's ranked the 5th oldest team at 27 year 2 months. This is even more evident when you look at skill positions.

QB - Carr 31
ER - Cam Jordon 34
WR- Mike Thomas 30
CB- Marshon Lattimore 27
RT- Ryan Ramczyk 29
RB - Alvin Kamara 28
LB - Demario Davis 34

Outside of Olave and Warner we don't have a ton of young talent. The window is closing and you could make the argument it already closed.

Salary Cap:

Yep lets talk about the cap. I have zero issues with kicking the can and trying to stay relevant, when we had a future HOF quarterback. It's always going to come due at some point and this seemed like a great time to start that process. The restructuring has also limited are ability to trade players and attempt to gain future draft picks. The Panthers got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks for Christian Mccaffrey. It would be nice to have the flexibility to unload some of the aging talent for future picks while they still have value. I love Alvin Kamara, but we are paying $8 million for a RB that will likely miss a third of the year that has a cap hit next year of $18 million.

Coaching:

I am just not sold on DA and Pete C. I feel like I did last season with a lot of optimism, to be honest I need to see. 90% of this board wanted the entire coaching staff fired just a few months ago. While I do think we will be favored in the South, I think it might be closer then people think. I just don't have a ton of faith. What's more a NFC South title likely saves DA for another year. I just don't think he is the answer long term.

Draft:

The Saint's have struggled in the draft, while Olave is trending in the right direction, we have a lot of 1st round misses. I am still worried we will continue the trend of moving up in the draft and trading away future picks to climb up after another player the team falls in love with. I know you can find ways to justify the Philly trade but having a top 10 pick now would be huge.

Conclusion:

I keep asking myself what the ceiling on this team is and keep landing on a wild-card weekend win at best. Is a couple of playoff appearances over the next couple of years worth waiting on the inevitable rebuild that is coming. Sure we have a shot at a Super Bowl but even the most die hard Saint knows that is a longshot. As an interesting note that Saints have only drafted 1 QB in the 1st round in franchise history. 52 years ago we drafted Archie Manning in 1971. The last 24 Super Bowl winners 12 where 1st round picks. If you take away TB12's 7 that's 5 other Super Bowl winning QB's that where not 1st round selections. I would love for us to buck that trend again, but the odds are against it.

Would love to here thoughts, anyone else out there in the wish we had started a rebuild camp? What do you think is the most realistic outcome for the team over the next couple of years?
I agree on all counts. Most fans are happy about it now, but the off-season is the time for optimism. I think it'll be a quick fall back to reality when this team brings them crashing back to reality.

1. You have people DRASTICALLY overestimating Carr(someone just said he might be 2nd best QB in the NFC and meant it). He's a career loser who hasn't won anything in a decade long career.

2. This FO has looked inept more often than not lately and it's been constant since SP left. Dennis Allen isn't the HC to rebuild this thing. And we don't have the HOF QB to carry this team. Our defense is getting old and expensive. It's gonna come crashing down to league average very soon.

The only thing we have going is that the divison is shaping up to be historically bad this year. So we can probably still win the division, even with all the things I pointed out. Then again, any if the other teams could easily have a big draft class and build a young team to take over the division as soon as this year.


I don't think it was worth it to keep can kicking. I think we should've bit the bullet, paid the piper. But that's not the MO of Loomis and Co. Will come back to bite them in all likelihood.
 
I agree on all counts. Most fans are happy about it now, but the off-season is the time for optimism. I think it'll be a quick fall back to reality when this team brings them crashing back to reality.

1. You have people DRASTICALLY overestimating Carr(someone just said he might be 2nd best QB in the NFC and meant it). He's a career loser who hasn't won anything in a decade long career.

2. This FO has looked inept more often than not lately and it's been constant since SP left. Dennis Allen isn't the HC to rebuild this thing. And we don't have the HOF QB to carry this team. Our defense is getting old and expensive. It's gonna come crashing down to league average very soon.

The only thing we have going is that the divison is shaping up to be historically bad this year. So we can probably still win the division, even with all the things I pointed out. Then again, any if the other teams could easily have a big draft class and build a young team to take over the division as soon as this year.


I don't think it was worth it to keep can kicking. I think we should've bit the bullet, paid the piper. But that's not the MO of Loomis and Co. Will come back to bite them in all likelihood.
The most important factor is that the division most likely is going to be at it’s weakest point. We are striking while the iron is hot. It is a legitimate strategy to winning a championship.

Are we doing the right things to build a dynasty? No, probably not.

Are we building to at least make the playoffs and having a competitive team for another few years? Yep.

We only have a couple of mega stars on crazy contracts that don’t deserve it. Not sure what else you think we can do
 
I agree on all counts. Most fans are happy about it now, but the off-season is the time for optimism. I think it'll be a quick fall back to reality when this team brings them crashing back to reality.

1. You have people DRASTICALLY overestimating Carr(someone just said he might be 2nd best QB in the NFC and meant it). He's a career loser who hasn't won anything in a decade long career.

2. This FO has looked inept more often than not lately and it's been constant since SP left. Dennis Allen isn't the HC to rebuild this thing. And we don't have the HOF QB to carry this team. Our defense is getting old and expensive. It's gonna come crashing down to league average very soon.

The only thing we have going is that the divison is shaping up to be historically bad this year. So we can probably still win the division, even with all the things I pointed out. Then again, any if the other teams could easily have a big draft class and build a young team to take over the division as soon as this year.


I don't think it was worth it to keep can kicking. I think we should've bit the bullet, paid the piper. But that's not the MO of Loomis and Co. Will come back to bite them in all likelihood.
I'm sorry but i strongly disagree.
1, If you know anything about football you know that W/L record is not solely on the QB , especially when you have historically BAD defenses. If so I guess you think Archie Manning was crap. Carr was 3rd in MVP voting under Gruden
2, This FO just went from roughly 60m over the cap to 16m in cap space AND signed the biggest FA available, and added the 2nd part of a 1-2 punch @ RB along with replacing the IDL with as good or better players along with adding depth in the secondary. While DA may not be the answer @HC he has the tools and with some luck with health, who knows.
We have 2 players on our D over 30 that contribute most of the rest of the D is either young or in their prime including our new additions, PLUS we'll probably add young players in the draft on D
3, ML and Kahi are MASTERS of the cap. Tearing it down, biting the bullet , tanking for a rebuild is the most risky and lengthy way to bring success and is far from a sure thing, see Cleveland. You're sounding like Nick Wright
Maybe I can enlighten you on Carr , watch this and you'll see who we have @ QB
 
I will start of by saying that I am excited about Saint's football in 2023. I like Carr as a person and player. Jamaal Williams is going to be fun to watch on and off the field. We will be completive and unless something major changes will be the favorites to win the South. As a Saint's fan the idea that come next Jan. we will likely be watching playoff football is something to be excited for. Having said that I will now make the case as to why I think the Carr signing will likely be a mistake in the long wrong.

Team Age:

Last year the Saint's ranked the 5th oldest team at 27 year 2 months. This is even more evident when you look at skill positions.

QB - Carr 31
ER - Cam Jordon 34
WR- Mike Thomas 30
CB- Marshon Lattimore 27
RT- Ryan Ramczyk 29
RB - Alvin Kamara 28
LB - Demario Davis 34

Outside of Olave and Warner we don't have a ton of young talent. The window is closing and you could make the argument it already closed.

Salary Cap:

Yep lets talk about the cap. I have zero issues with kicking the can and trying to stay relevant, when we had a future HOF quarterback. It's always going to come due at some point and this seemed like a great time to start that process. The restructuring has also limited are ability to trade players and attempt to gain future draft picks. The Panthers got a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks for Christian Mccaffrey. It would be nice to have the flexibility to unload some of the aging talent for future picks while they still have value. I love Alvin Kamara, but we are paying $8 million for a RB that will likely miss a third of the year that has a cap hit next year of $18 million.

Coaching:

I am just not sold on DA and Pete C. I feel like I did last season with a lot of optimism, to be honest I need to see. 90% of this board wanted the entire coaching staff fired just a few months ago. While I do think we will be favored in the South, I think it might be closer then people think. I just don't have a ton of faith. What's more a NFC South title likely saves DA for another year. I just don't think he is the answer long term.

Draft:

The Saint's have struggled in the draft, while Olave is trending in the right direction, we have a lot of 1st round misses. I am still worried we will continue the trend of moving up in the draft and trading away future picks to climb up after another player the team falls in love with. I know you can find ways to justify the Philly trade but having a top 10 pick now would be huge.

Conclusion:

I keep asking myself what the ceiling on this team is and keep landing on a wild-card weekend win at best. Is a couple of playoff appearances over the next couple of years worth waiting on the inevitable rebuild that is coming. Sure we have a shot at a Super Bowl but even the most die hard Saint knows that is a longshot. As an interesting note that Saints have only drafted 1 QB in the 1st round in franchise history. 52 years ago we drafted Archie Manning in 1971. The last 24 Super Bowl winners 12 where 1st round picks. If you take away TB12's 7 that's 5 other Super Bowl winning QB's that where not 1st round selections. I would love for us to buck that trend again, but the odds are against it.

Would love to here thoughts, anyone else out there in the wish we had started a rebuild camp? What do you think is the most realistic outcome for the team over the next couple of years?
I understand what you are saying because, before, I couldn't find myself getting excited about the Carr signing even though I like him. I realized though, like 2006 and 2017, we are just a good draft away from being legit super bowl contenders.
 
I've said this before: THIS IS THE POST-PAYTON REBUILD and it's happening RIGHT NOW in front of our eyes. So many are getting wrapped around the axle with the salary cap. This isn't Loomis/Khai's first rodeo. There's far too much cap mythology going around.
 
I understand what you are saying because, before, I couldn't find myself getting excited about the Carr signing even though I like him. I realized though, like 2006 and 2017, we are just a good draft away from being legit super bowl contenders.
Definitely an aspect some people aren't considering. And it could happen. Maybe not probable, but certainly not implausible.

No one saw 2006 or 2017 shaping as they did beforehand (heck no one saw 2017 coming before week 3 of that season).

We've improved the QB position, most people agree. We have a good group of core players. We all know the division should be weak.

Hopefully we can nail the draft, stay healthy, and have a fun year.
 
Definitely an aspect some people aren't considering. And it could happen. Maybe not probable, but certainly not implausible.

No one saw 2006 or 2017 shaping as they did beforehand (heck no one saw 2017 coming before week 3 of that season).

We've improved the QB position, most people agree. We have a good group of core players. We all know the division should be weak.

Hopefully we can nail the draft, stay healthy, and have a fun year.
With as bad as the QB's in the NFC are as a whole, the Saints are just one good/great draft away from being competitive with the Eagles & 9'ers at the top of the conference. Heck, as it sits right now they still might be right in the tier below those two teams.

I still don't get how fans even remotely think this is a bad signing.
 
With as bad as the QB's in the NFC are as a whole, the Saints are just one good/great draft away from being competitive with the Eagles & 9'ers at the top of the conference. Heck, as it sits right now they still might be right in the tier below those two teams.

I still don't get how fans even remotely think this is a bad signing.
This Team is not going to win because of Carr it's going to win because it's a solid overall team.

The QB position was a weak spot last year and we have signed a talented QB with pro bowls under his belt, couple that with a defense that for all intents and purposes is the strength of this team .

Carr does not have to win a game because of his abilities alone but guide an offense with Kamara behind him and Thomas and Olave outside of him with a physical offensive line that will only get better with this year's draft, how can anybody be anything but optimistic is beyond me.
 
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This Team is not going to win because of Carr it's going to win because it's a solid overall team.

The QB position was a weak spot last year and we have signed a talented one with pro bowls under his belt, couple that with a defense that for all intents and purposes is the strength of this team Carr does not have to win this game because of his abilities alone but guide an offense with Kamara behind him and Thomas and Olave outside of him with a physical offensive line that will only get better with this year's draft, how can anybody be anything but optimistic is beyond me.
This, precisely.

I think Carr is pretty close to 2020 Brees in overall ability. Their skill sets and relative strengths and weaknesses (or “super powers” as QB evaluators sometimes call them) are obviously different. But the team will be in a similar spot on the “win WITH this QB vs win BECAUSE of the QB” spectrum.
 
I´m sure many saints fans thought when Brees was signed that they would never win anything with him. Look how that turned out. The point is, you won´t know if the team is any good until you see them in action. Saying that Carr will never get them to the SB is just a media talking point.
 
I´m sure many saints fans thought when Brees was signed that they would never win anything with him. Look how that turned out. The point is, you won´t know if the team is any good until you see them in action. Saying that Carr will never get them to the SB is just a media talking point.
What’s funny is that if you told fans in 2006 that they could get a couple division titles and maybe a couple playoff wins, they would have been ecstatic.

Now, some people are pointing to that as the expectation for the Carr-era Saints like it would be some sort of letdown.
 
the expectation for the Carr-era
You mean an expectation like this???
porsche-911-gold-china-468x259.jpg

:grin:
 

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