Why we should go run-heavy offense (and the stats to support it) (1 Viewer)

[xyzyx]

First off, let me say I'm not one saying Brees is toast. Clearly he isn't what he was 5 years ago but he's still an amazing QB that should have a few good years left provided he stays healthy. I'd argue that, if managed properly, he could win a lot of games as well. But the days of his carrying the team are clearly behind us, time for a change.
In fact, it may have been time for a change a couple years ago. Looking at stats (including this year) a pattern emerges. First, separating games where Brees made 40+ pass attempts vs. <40 and seeing the W-L record:

OVER 40 W-L UNDER 40 W-L

2016 1-7 4-1

2015 5-5 2-3

2014 1-9 6-0

TOTALS: 7-21 12-4

That seems pretty telling, but this is only half the story. How does increased rushing relate to wins and losses? For this I looked at the average rush attempts per game in Wins and Losses over the same period:

AVERAGE RUSH ATTEMPTS PER GAME
IN WINS IN LOSSES

2016 34 19.25

2015 30.1 20.7

2014 29.1 22.4

AVG: 30.8 20.8

So, as you can see, in wins over the last 3 seasons the Saints ran the ball an average of almost 50% more than in losses. Add this to their record of 7-21 when passing 40+ times as opposed to 12-4 when passes were below that and I think this makes a compelling argument.
Also consider that these stats were with the players at hand, with the coach we have, and with defenses that were less than stellar. Such an offense wouldn't be as flashy, though increased time-of-possession could only help defensively and what do you really want, highlight reels or championship rings?
Will Payton change? Hard to say, though if he doesn't it will certainly be a shame. Brees and this team deserve another shot. We'll see.

 

[BoNcHiE]

This again?

It's not telling at all.

 

[CoachKen]

The reason we losing

 

[xyzyx]

This again?

It's not telling at all.

Why do you say that? What about my analysis is incorrect?

 

[BoNcHiE]

Why do you say that? What about my analysis is incorrect?

You ignore cause and effect of why a team usually reaches 30+ rushes, how different situations in specific games affect the ability to rush the ball, and how many rushes happen with a lead in the 4th quarter that otherwise can't happen if you are fighting a deficit that ultimately lead to that 30+ number.

The only reason a QB gets to 40+ attempts in 95% of cases is because they are playing with a deficit and have to throw a lot later in games. Almost no coach (except Belichick) goes into a game planning to throw it 45 times and run it only 20.

 

[EagleSaint]

We can't run the ball consistently because we don't have the offensive line to do it.

 

[xyzyx]

You ignore cause and effect of why a team usually reaches 30+ rushes, how different situations in specific games affect the ability to rush the ball, and how many rushes happen with a lead in the 4th quarter that otherwise can't happen if you are fighting a deficit that ultimately lead to that 30+ number.

The only reason a QB gets to 40+ attempts in 95% of cases is because they are playing with a deficit and have to throw a lot later in games. Almost no coach (except Belichick) goes into a game planning to throw it 45 times and run it only 20.

So, do you think that analysis fits Payton's strategy the past few years? That there's been a commitment to the run that was only abandoned when we fell far behind? I realize correlation is not the same as causation, but there IS a pattern and I don't think your above criticism fits with what Payton has done the last few years. Especially this year several losses we did NOT have a significant deficit yet the running game was abandoned.