COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (17 Viewers)

[bclemms]

Turns out one of the Iranian cases is already dead. I think this is the third confirmed death outside of China.

Here's the source (you need a translator): https://fa.shafaqna.com/news/891785/

Also noted here:

So there were a number of suspected cases, a special team was sent to the area to do testing, they quickly found 2, 1 of them is already dead. Will be really interesting to see how this plays out. Statistics says if 1 has already died then there is likely a lot more cases in that area.

This is the 7th death outside of mainland China.
1 in Japan, 1 in France, 1 in Iran, 1 in Philippines, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong.

 

[James Spader]

That "text from Nancy" has been circulating for a couple of weeks. It's nonsense.

When did you originally see it?

 

[James Spader]

I'm prepped:

What for a 2 day beach trip?

 

[Doug B]

I just think that's unrealistic - it's a format . . . a medium for sharing of information.

Twitter, within limits, gives a general veneer of credibility to anything posted. The presence of professional-looking websites purpose-built to host fake news gives a steady supply of reliable-looking citations.

It's fine for Twitter to exist. Basically, it can be treated as the logical extensions of chat rooms and Usenet -- artifacts of 1990s-style "shoot the bull with strangers" Internet culture. But a Twitter link, itself, can't nearly be used as a citation for anything fact-based.

As for the dude at the barber shop ... spoken-word information has always been considered less credible than printed information (which today includes appearing online). Plus the reach of the traditional spoken word was much more constrained in the recent past than the reach of the Information Superhighway today.

 

[Doug B]

So there were a number of suspected cases, a special team was sent to the area to do testing, they quickly found 2, 1 of them is already dead. Will be really interesting to see how this plays out. Statistics says if 1 has already died then there is likely a lot more cases in that area.

Also, this I think this is the 6th death outside of mainland China.

I also want to see if these were Chinese nationals traveling (like the "French" death) who likely caught the virus before leaving China. If not that, I am hoping that these patients have a fairly easily identified link to a known hotspot.

 

[James Spader]

I just think that's unrealistic - it's a format . . . a medium for sharing of information.

I think the onus is on the user to filter and check for quality. The only difference between twitter and information-sharing formats of by-gone days (e.g. a bulletin board or gossip at the barber shop / hair salon) is the scale of people involved.

People used to believe some garbage because their friend told them on the golf course. Others became good at filtering out what someone talking out of their arse sounded like.

Exactly, a free and open society is best not one that restricts speech and information. Up to the user to not be stupid. I am with you superchuck.

 

[Doug B]

Turns out one of the Iranian cases is already dead. I think this is the third confirmed death outside of China.

There are many English-language links on major news sites now. That helps legitimize any given bit of news -- the idea that big game-changing news will be invariably picked up quickly by big outlets.

Anyway, CNBC is reporting two Iranian deaths now.

Fed sees coronavirus as risk to global growth, markets face 'pretty serious reckoning'

As of Wednesday, more than 75,200 cases of coronavirus have been reported, resulting in at least 2,000 deaths.

www.cnbc.com

Corroborated by AP:

Iran state news agency says new virus has killed 2 citizens

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — The new virus has killed two elderly Iranian citizens, Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported Wednesday. IRNA quoted Alireza Vahabzadeh, an adviser to the country's health minister, as saying that both victims had been carrying the coronavirus and were located in Qom...

apnews.com

 

[Doug B]

Exactly, a free and open society is best not one that restricts speech and information. Up to the user to not be stupid. I am with you superchuck.

Cool if it exists. I'll never make a decision, draw a conclusion, or initiate action based on Twitter information alone. With perhaps an "the tweeter is family or friend" exception in times of crisis (e.g. hurricane evacuation).

 

[bclemms]

I also want to see if these were Chinese nationals traveling (like the "French" death) who likely caught the virus before leaving China. If not that, I am hoping that these patients have a fairly easily identified link to a known hotspot.

I don't really think it matters since this one in Iran is the only one that just showed up dead. The rest were all positives before being in serious or critical condition. There have been plenty of cases that show transmission outside of China. Japan has a handful that don't even know how they got it with no known links.

So far 7 deaths from 641 cases outside of China with more than half of those cases coming in the past 7 days. It's starting to look like that 1-2% number in China is going to hold up even though I think that is really on the high sides since there are likely thousands of cases outside of China that have gone undetected to this point.

I'm sticking by my assessment that it's not very deadly on a small scale but that it could be upwards of 5% on a mass scale like Wuhan saw.

 

[bclemms]

My compliments to the writer of that CNBC article.

coronavirus in the holy Shi’ite city of Qom

 

[bclemms]

Oh China, nobody believes you anyway so just quit trying.

 

[Doug B]

I don't really think it matters since this one in Iran is the only one that just showed up dead.

Interestingly ... Iran is so far reporting these two deaths as their only two COVID-19 cases nationwide. Doubtful that holds up, but we'll see.

 

[superchuck500]

This is the 7th death outside of mainland China.
1 in Japan, 1 in France, 1 in Iran, 1 in Philippines, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong.

Got it. I would consider Taiwan and Hong Kong as China for data purposes, but I can see that it makes sense to distinguish from mainland China.

 

[superchuck500]

Cool if it exists. I'll never make a decision, draw a conclusion, or initiate action based on Twitter information alone. With perhaps an "the tweeter is family or friend" exception in times of crisis (e.g. hurricane evacuation).

Fair enough, but for discussion, I'd like to follow up:

Would you make a decision or draw a conclusion from another printed source? For example, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, or The Economist?

- If no, then it isn't really a characteristic of twitter that is driving your response, is it?

- If yes, then what's the difference between those sources and a twitter account that is the verified twitter account for those sources, or a verified writer on staff at those sources?


Bottom line for me: not all twitter accounts are equal. That means not all twitter posts (tweets) are equal. That means you have to have a quality filter - just like any other information source. And if you really want to be sure, you need to verify further from other sources. But that's just information quality 101.

 

[CTSaint]

28 of those cases came in the last 3 days and 51 in the last week.

FIFY. Sorry, I couldn't resist!