Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak (Update: 16 US cases confirmed) (51 Viewers)

Eeyore

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It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.
 
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Saint_Ward

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superchuck500

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I think we have to be careful with misinformation or information we don't have good context for.

How good is China's medical system? How many patients can they handle?

it is a bad respiratory illness. If you have bronchitis or pneumonia, shortness of breath and passing out isn't uncommon. Especially if untreated, or poorly treated.



WHO wouldn't recommend this, but China doesn't play and they like to make their people do what they want. In a way, I'm glad this originated in China, because they shut crap down. Might be overkill and it might bite them later, but we shall see...
It’s a fair point about information - and you have to be very discerning in the Twitter age, but we do have some quality information. The South China Morning Post (paper of record for Hong Kong) has fairly intense coverage. NYT and BBC are covering it in detail. I think the part about building a new infection unit has been confirmed.

This latest from BBC notes over 1,000 ‘suspected’ cases. I don’t know how the test works but If they’re having the make the test kits special for this novel virus, that means they probably don’t have huge supplies of it.


 

bclemms

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It’s a fair point about information - and you have to be very discerning in the Twitter age, but we do have some quality information. The South China Morning Post (paper of record for Hong Kong) has fairly intense coverage. NYT and BBC are covering it in detail. I think the part about building a new infection unit has been confirmed.

This latest from BBC notes over 1,000 ‘suspected’ cases. I don’t know how the test works but If they’re having the make the test kits special for this novel virus, that means they probably don’t have huge supplies of it.


I think China was covering it up until they realized they couldn't and now they are playing catch up. They can't come out and say there are more than 20,000 cases in Wuhan alone and still pretend like they've been transparent from the beginning. I mean, let's get real. 11 million people in Wuhan, 640 cases of the virus and of those 640 like 15 of them are from another country and 2 are American citizens? To make those statistics add up up there would have to be 35000 Americans in Wuhan, traveling to the US in a two week period. 6000 people a day travel from the US to China on an average day which would be 84,000 people in two weeks. This is happening at a time where travel is among the lowest of any time of the year. I can't imagine a scenario where almost half of them would end up in Wuhan when most Americans do not visit Wuhan when traveling to China. There are numerous cases of people catching the virus that had zero association with Wuhan or anyone else from the area. If I had to guess the real number is probably closer to 60,000 cases and the death count is probably well over 100. For China to shut down cities of that size, come out and publicly speak of transparency and cancel Chinese New Year celebrations they have to know either it's a major problem or they are overreacting to put on a show for the world that they are doing everything they can.

Sars happened before social media and the impacts of SARS was catastrophic on the economy. It put thousands of businesses into bankruptcy because people were scared to leave the house. I've been on the ground of disasters during the social media era and what I read on social media does not translate remotely close to what I see on the ground. It gets beyond absurd and the only thing that goes viral are the worst pictures/videos from the worst moments in the absolute worst areas. So I think we are seeing a combination of social media flaring combined with a panic that has set in among Chinese people who are being quarantined and have little trust of their government and they know the information they are getting is probably propaganda. So I would imagine the rumors on the ground are even worse than the rumors on social media. Best way to make people panic is to withhold information or give misleading information.

My best guess is this virus has spread out of control, there should be a health emergency issued and it appears as though this disease is extremely contagious and maybe even as contagious as the flu but it has a low mortality rate. I think the number of cases are far higher than what anyone is guessing but they mortality rate is probably lower than what is being suggested. Problem is, the Spanish Flu only had a mortality rate of 1-2% but it was super contagious and the incredible numbers created a very high death toll. Now that the virus has been identified I believe that people will show up to get treatment faster out of fear and it will result in an even lower death rate.

There is no way in hell this virus doesn't spread like wildfire since it's already been in damn near every major airline hub in the world. I think the only big questions at this point is how high will the final death rate be and will it undergo another major mutation. I think odds of a major mutation are extremely low but every case you have increases those odds just a little bit. I'm guessing in a few weeks we are looking at this thread with a worldwide outbreak but with considerably less panic.
 

superchuck500

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What could go wrong....5 years later.
At this point there’s really no legitimate reason to find that anything other than an unfortunate coincidence. The virology is novel and substantially similar to other known coronavirus epidemics. It has all the same marks of a bat-originated (natural) coronavirus that mutated and spread to people.
 

bclemms

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Yep, I saw it as well as a bunch of others of crowded hostpitals, people passing out or laying motionless on the street. Question is, how many times a day does this happen in a city of 11 million but it doesn't get attention because there is no virus? How many of the people crowding the hospital are in lines to get help because they have a cold or the flu and normally wouldn't even go to the doctor but they are piling in today because of fear? How many medical workers didn't show up today because of fear causing even more overcrowding? These are all questions that we don't really know the answer to because nobody trusts the Chinese Gov. Like with most cases, I'm guessing it's somewhere in the middle. Like I said, I think there is probably closer to 60k cases right now, a number 100x greater than the official number but truth is, we'll never know.
 

superchuck500

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Second case in Japan - but it's a Wuhan resident that traveled to Japan as a tourist. Until new cases are confirmed where the patient wasn't personally in Wuhan, it's still not an acute containment concern.



Singapore now with three - all having been in Wuhan.


 
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superchuck500

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Wow. Officials expect the hospital to be open by February 2. Probably going to have to be field/temporary structure.

 

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I bet we find out this virus has been in the US for a while. So many people this winter have had vital respiratory infections resulting in bronchitis and pneumonia.
 

superchuck500

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Second US case confirmed - Chicago, the patient had been in Wuhan in late December. Additional suspected cases with connection to Wuhan are pending confirmation in California and Texas.


 

superchuck500

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Great, so this lady had practically 2 weeks to be walking around spreading this virus around Chicago?
Yes, she had it for two weeks - we don't know exactly what she was doing but that's one of the real problems with this virus. It has a long asymptomatic period (upwards of two weeks).

What's not clear yet is whether the virus spreads during that period. Often viruses don't spread while latent/asymptomatic. If this one does, it's going to be a real problem - at least as far as the contagiousness question goes.
 

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