COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (34 Viewers)

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China is now releasing the numbers of those who show clinical symptoms of the Coronavirus, rather than just confirmed cases which they had done up to this point to downplay it. Almost like an ok we have been bad, so here it is. Just keep it contained as best they can until someone either figures out a medicine that works or a vaccine. Or until April when it will die out on its own. ?‍♂️
 
Now we have a new paper that puts the RO at 4.7 - 6.6 and the number of infected doubling every 2.4 days. This just keeps getting better and better.

"Abstract
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus."

www.medrxiv.org

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R , was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org

Early, strong control measures like China welding people's doors closed.
 
Goatman Saint said:
China is now releasing the numbers of those who show clinical symptoms of the Coronavirus, rather than just confirmed cases which they had done up to this point to downplay it. Almost like an ok we have been bad, so here it is. Just keep it contained as best they can until someone either figures out a medicine that works or a vaccine. Or until April when it will die out on its own. ?‍♂️
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This would explain the huge jump in numbers.
 
Vietnam just quarantined a village of 10,000 people.

vtc.vn

Vĩnh Phúc cách ly hoàn toàn xã Sơn Lôi, hơn 10.000 dân không được ra khỏi xã

Kể từ ngày mai, Vĩnh Phúc cách ly toàn bộ xã Sơn Lôi (huyện Bình Xuyên) để dập dịch Covid-19, hơn 10.000 người dân ở đây sẽ được nhận hỗ trợ 40.000 đồng/người/ngày.
vtc.vn

If you run this through Safari Translate you can read it.

The gist: 5 cases, 91 PUIs, 21 in clinic. 10K people will be quarantined for 20 days.
 
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DaveXA said:
Being locked in my own home for 14 days isn't gonna end well.
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As long as natural gas and electricity stay on, I welcome our new virion overlords.

I have a chest freezer full of meat and hard liquor and lots of movies to see.
 
If you take the cases of people evacuated from just Wuhan to be repatriated then it's running a out 1% confirmed positive. 1% would have put the number of cases in Wuhan at 110,000 and those numbers are lagging 7-10 days. The real number is probably in excess of 500k at this point in Wuhan alone. That is also more in line with models.
 
If man didnt create it nature created a hell of a bioweapon. Transmits every possible way, long incubation period, can be spread asymptomatic, cases vary from no symptoms to deadly, starts in one of the most populous cities in the most populous country on the planet, all tests throw high rate of false negatives, long duration lifespan on surfaces, highly contagious, matches symptoms of common cold, flu and other respiratory diseases, proving to spread easily in multiple climates. Only thing it's missing is high mortality rate.

 
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bclemms said:
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I wonder if the false negatives were because of improper testing, or if there are stages when it can't be detected by the usual means. Seems like this is happening here and there.

Scary, because it's quite likely people have been sent home with the virus and end up spreading it more.
 
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