COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (31 Viewers)

[bclemms]

This is pretty cool read. This company picked up on the spread of Zika and correctly forecast it's spread. Now it picked up on Wuhan Virus weeks before the CDC. They about to make some big money but it also shows that AI and algos can pick up outbreaks significantly faster than current methods.

An AI Epidemiologist Sent the First Alerts of the Coronavirus

The BlueDot algorithm scours news reports and airline ticketing data to predict the spread of diseases like those linked to the flu outbreak in China.

www.wired.com

 

[bclemms]

The key to when to worry remains if/when we see new infections in North America among people who weren’t in Wuhan. Until that starts to happen there will remain good basis to presume it’s not an immediate concern for most Americans.

That domino will fall this week according to almost all the models.

 

[superchuck500]

That domino will fall this week according to almost all the models.

Perhaps. But the models are only as good as the data and premises on which they’re based. This is a novel virus in a locale where transparency and reliable information are lacking. We really don’t know how easily it transmits.

For example the SCMP is reporting today that seven medical providers at a Wuhan hospital who felt ill all tested negative. Models notwithstanding, I only know of one case of a second degree infection abroad (in Vietnam). Watching closely to see if there are more.

 

[bclemms]

Perhaps. But the models are only as good as the data and premises on which they’re based. This is a novel virus in a locale where transparency and reliable information are lacking. We really don’t know how easily it transmits.

For example the SCMP is reporting today that seven medical providers at a Wuhan hospital who felt ill all tested negative. Models notwithstanding, I only know of one case of a second degree infection abroad (in Vietnam). Watching closely to see if there are more.

I completely agree. We also know the data they've been working with has assumed that the virus only became contagious at the onset of symptoms which appears to be false. This means dozens of confirmed cases have been infectious, in an airplane on long haul flights. I don't know about the rest of the world but when I'm sitting next to someone on a flight that is 12 hours I'm closer to them than any family member I spend days with and the virus has shown to be highly infectious in close quarters. Unless it doesn't spread on secondary infections, I think it's pretty safe to assume it's going to go nuts until proven otherwise. I think it's actually quite irresponsible for the CDC and governments to assume the other way around.

 

[superchuck500]

And testing limitations are a problem for containment. Singapore has 92 suspected cases.

Wuhan virus: No new confirmed cases in Singapore, number of suspect cases climbs to 92

The number of confirmed cases stands at 4 while test results for 42 suspect cases are pending. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[superchuck500]

Those Scotland cases are all negative. Each had been in Wuhan.

 

[superchuck500]

HK schools shutting down for almost a month - that’s the kind of measures this stuff takes. Can you imagine school districts in the US having to close for a month?

Hong Kong is shutting down its schools until February 17 to limit the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus

In addition to the school cancellations, the city will temporarily suspend all plane and train service in and out of Hong Kong.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[bclemms]

Good follow from Harvard med grad, Epidimiologist and health economist.


Report he is referring to.

COVID-19

Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the deve...

www.imperial.ac.uk

It'll be really interesting to see these high end academic reports either verify or whiff. Every report coming out is pretty damn bad.

 

[bclemms]

And testing limitations are a problem for containment. Singapore has 92 suspected cases.

Wuhan virus: No new confirmed cases in Singapore, number of suspect cases climbs to 92

The number of confirmed cases stands at 4 while test results for 42 suspect cases are pending. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

So the 4th guy in Singapore used public transportation, used a taxi, stayed at a huge and crowded hotel before spending the day at Universal Studios and another large theme park and had 16 close contacts before heading into a major hospital without prior notification. This dude was putting in work.

 

[superchuck500]

The Wuhan mayor says about 5M residents left before the lockdown. I saw some independent analysis that found that most likely went “home” to where their family comes from - with 70% of them remaining in Hubei province.

He also said he expects another 2,000 or so cases. That’s still nothing like what the models and anecdotes from a few medical staff on the ground suggest.

 

[bclemms]

The Wuhan mayor says about 5M residents left before the lockdown. I saw some independent analysis that found that most likely went “home” to where their family comes from - with 70% of them remaining in Hubei province.

He also said he expects another 2,000 or so cases. That’s still nothing like what the models and anecdotes from a few medical staff on the ground suggest.

2000 more cases? I mean, at least pretend to be honest. The only way lying like that reduces fear is if the real numbers exceed even the worst estimates.

So the President comes out and says it's accelerating while the Mayor comes out and gives numbers that indicate the virus has already peaked.

I'm just going to assume nobody has a freaking clue what's going on because it's become so overwhelming.

 

[RazorOye]

the discussion here needs to about breaking down borders and national boundaries - this isn't a domestic issue, it's global. There should be condemnation about the cover up and perhaps litigation allowed, or some sort of legal accountability brought to the proverbial table. With the amount of control that China has over its population, there's no way this could have happened without some sort of higher administration knowing.

In cases like this, where a potential epidemic can go worldwide, and data/containment is absolutely critical, then there must be some sort of recourse that other nations can take in the interest of global health and their own citizens.

This was never going to be a Chinese-only issue.

And could have been contained, perhaps even by now, with clearer information and transparency.

Three other people have been admitted to ERs here with symptoms, but turned out to be just the regular flu.

 

[bonnjer]

HK schools shutting down for almost a month - that’s the kind of measures this stuff takes. Can you imagine school districts in the US having to close for a month?

Hong Kong is shutting down its schools until February 17 to limit the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus

In addition to the school cancellations, the city will temporarily suspend all plane and train service in and out of Hong Kong.

www.businessinsider.com

Don't they go to school 380 days a year anyway? They'll be okay to miss a month.

Now, if that happened in the US, parents would lose their minds. Plus, that would put a big ding in the almighty "test prep" routine.

 

[superchuck500]

A case in LA now too. But also a Wuhan traveler.

 

[gboudx]

Ugh. Guess its time to stock up on beer, water and ramen noodles, then seal the house with plastic sheeting and duct tape.