COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (25 Viewers)

[Snakehead]

You probably don't want to know.

Mean temperature and average latitude of outbreak areas are close to Montgomery's and the 7 day forecast mean temperature.

The good news a lot of other factors like population density and low number of international traverlers help. Plus the temperature spread between highs and lows are bit wider than mean levels.

It's not a crystal ball or anything like that, just shows increased statistical probability. The data sets are still pretty minimal since it's so early in the virus history and there are so many variables that can't be accurately accounted for at this point. Also, it's like a wildfire model, without a spark it doesn't matter how high the potential is for fire spread.

I just wanted to post that with a time stamp to see how it does. If I posted that and the charts to social it could go viral and for all the wrong reasons. If it does verify though, want to have "public" record of it.

It's fascinating what some weather knowledge combined with other factors can assist in the forecast/prediction/extrapolation of other non-weather events.

There's a reason why the Army considers weather as intelligence.

Like your friend, I am an Operational Meteorologist by trade, but my degree is in Homeland Security with most of my course work in emergency planning, crisis action as well as other areas that fall under homeland security.

 

[bclemms]

It's fascinating what some weather knowledge combined with other factors can assist in the forecast/prediction/extrapolation of other non-weather events.

There's a reason why the Army considers weather as intelligence.

Like your friend, I am an Operational Meteorologist by trade, but my degree is in Homeland Security with most of my course work in emergency planning, crisis action as well as other areas that fall under homeland security.

Yep, meteorology crosses over to almost any sector. I think the most important question on the planet right now is will the virus survive seasonal changes in the northern hemisphere? Also, will it survive long enough to transfer into southern hemisphere fall/winter months. It's quite literally a Trillion dollar question with potentially millions of lives at stake. The answer to that question can change the way we attack the virus. If we know that temperature changes will push it out of the the population belt of the world by the end of April then the world can throw every resource it has at it to postpone the spread including draconian measures. If not, then we need to completely change tactics to putting almost all resources to treating the sick.

I knew you were a met, didn't know how you applied it. Very interesting.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

 

[superchuck500]

First presumptive case in Brazil and first for South America.

 

[B4YOU]

Models suggest Iran probably is closer to 20k infections than it is the the reported number. Every case in the ME outside of Iran is linked to them.

 

[James Spader]

Another personal update from Japan:


JUST IN: 7 people now have died from the virus in Japan This stuff is deadly people.

Hello everyone here on the greatest forum on Earth. Do you all realize because we have a caring and sharing heart, we all have come together as family these days with one thing we all have in common. Its our sincerity from our hearts to help one another. Although I live an ocean apart from you all, but now I feel part of your family. Thank you all for allowing me to say this.

MIM's Update here in Tokyo, Japan February 26, 2020 Thursday-- Time: who cares now (its like nervous time) OK, it going to be about 8:30 pm--- London 11:30 am (hey guys, how was the fish and chips yesterday) ---Sydney 10:30 pm (another beer, please) and now our good folks in New York 6:30 am ( hope all is going well there)

Update: some of this I reported earlier in the day so I'll just do it again.

1. Hokkaido 1 died (lived with family members)
2. Hokkaido 4 new cases
3. Japan 164 people now known to be infected (this only shows people that were allowed to be tested) (new testing rules now apply
4. 3 officers on the ship infected
5. 2 passengers on the ship infected
6. This doesn't sound good for this country: More than 400 Philippine citizens from virus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship arrive home as number of infected rises to 80
7. 1 new infection in Tokushima, this isn't good at all. en.wikipedia.org...(city)
8. 2 very large rock concerts cancelled tonight at the last moment
9. the next 1 to 2 weeks are crucial to Japans ....(sorry, didn't catch the Japanese word) according to PM Abe (he's the leader of the country
10. Games and other events are on hold at the moment
11. Basketball ( yes , we play basketball here) games canceled till further notice
12. Soccer and heck a whole list of sports including school sports
13. schools are cutting their hours , no after school events now (schools look like an empty... lost for words)
14. Tokyo Olympics might have to be canceled
15. can you believe this: Disneyland Tokyo is still open for business (unbelievable , their employees take the subways and trains (hey disney, no heart)
16. schools are to bring spring holiday sooner, actually they should do the all the test tomorrow and then close all schools down, happened today in Hokkaido
17. THERE IS A CRISES IN JAPAN (not my words)
18. Job fairs are canceled in many prefectures
19. the business leaders here are old, personally I think they still have their heads up their... and for the most part, money, money and more. Maybe they just don't like to go home. Poor workers
20. IMPORTANT: the current outbreak will affect peoples work styles (does unemployment ring a bell here)

21. of the 813 of the ship that just left /45 of them now are feverish (keep in mind this doesn't include all them Philippinos
22. its now official "cash flow crunch" (sad, but that does have a lasting ring to it) for business that depend on tourism
hey folks, please do not come to Japan

23. Italy, hmm. hey my parents are from there: 322 infected that they know of, 10 have died, possibly more
24. South Korea: 12 known people have died so far
25. South Korea: Govt. is reporting 1261 people infected
26. thousands have signed something to get RID of the South Korea's leader, can't blame them either

Wow! so far I didn't lose my message here, better reply quickly before my Sapporo lands on the computer and....

 

[DaveXA]

Another personal update from Japan:


JUST IN: 7 people now have died from the virus in Japan This stuff is deadly people.

Hello everyone here on the greatest forum on Earth. Do you all realize because we have a caring and sharing heart, we all have come together as family these days with one thing we all have in common. Its our sincerity from our hearts to help one another. Although I live an ocean apart from you all, but now I feel part of your family. Thank you all for allowing me to say this.

MIM's Update here in Tokyo, Japan February 26, 2020 Thursday-- Time: who cares now (its like nervous time) OK, it going to be about 8:30 pm--- London 11:30 am (hey guys, how was the fish and chips yesterday) ---Sydney 10:30 pm (another beer, please) and now our good folks in New York 6:30 am ( hope all is going well there)

Update: some of this I reported earlier in the day so I'll just do it again.

1. Hokkaido 1 died (lived with family members)
2. Hokkaido 4 new cases
3. Japan 164 people now known to be infected (this only shows people that were allowed to be tested) (new testing rules now apply
4. 3 officers on the ship infected
5. 2 passengers on the ship infected
6. This doesn't sound good for this country: More than 400 Philippine citizens from virus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship arrive home as number of infected rises to 80
7. 1 new infection in Tokushima, this isn't good at all. en.wikipedia.org...(city)
8. 2 very large rock concerts cancelled tonight at the last moment
9. the next 1 to 2 weeks are crucial to Japans ....(sorry, didn't catch the Japanese word) according to PM Abe (he's the leader of the country
10. Games and other events are on hold at the moment
11. Basketball ( yes , we play basketball here) games canceled till further notice
12. Soccer and heck a whole list of sports including school sports
13. schools are cutting their hours , no after school events now (schools look like an empty... lost for words)
14. Tokyo Olympics might have to be canceled
15. can you believe this: Disneyland Tokyo is still open for business (unbelievable , their employees take the subways and trains (hey disney, no heart)
16. schools are to bring spring holiday sooner, actually they should do the all the test tomorrow and then close all schools down, happened today in Hokkaido
17. THERE IS A CRISES IN JAPAN (not my words)
18. Job fairs are canceled in many prefectures
19. the business leaders here are old, personally I think they still have their heads up their... and for the most part, money, money and more. Maybe they just don't like to go home. Poor workers
20. IMPORTANT: the current outbreak will affect peoples work styles (does unemployment ring a bell here)

21. of the 813 of the ship that just left /45 of them now are feverish (keep in mind this doesn't include all them Philippinos
22. its now official "cash flow crunch" (sad, but that does have a lasting ring to it) for business that depend on tourism
hey folks, please do not come to Japan

23. Italy, hmm. hey my parents are from there: 322 infected that they know of, 10 have died, possibly more
24. South Korea: 12 known people have died so far
25. South Korea: Govt. is reporting 1261 people infected
26. thousands have signed something to get RID of the South Korea's leader, can't blame them either

Wow! so far I didn't lose my message here, better reply quickly before my Sapporo lands on the computer and....

...and, no, we have the greatest forum on earth.

Interesting post tho.

 

[saintmdterps]

The OT I work with has planned a two-week trip to Italy for a year. She and her family were supposed to leave tomorrow, and now it appears she won't be able to go. She is upset because of all the planning that went into the trip and because she's pregnant, and feels this was her last opportunity for a vacation.

Per the WHO, seasonal flu kills an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 worldwide every year, so I'm still not jumping up and down about the coronavirus.

Influenza (Seasonal)

WHO fact sheet on influenza: includes key facts, definition, symptoms, transmission, seasonal epidemics, effects, prevention, WHO response.

www.who.int

Illnesses range from mild to severe and even death. Hospitalization and death occur mainly among high risk groups. Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths.

 

[James Spader]

The OT I work with has planned a two-week trip to Italy for a year. She and her family were supposed to leave tomorrow, and now it appears she won't be able to go. She is upset because of all the planning that went into the trip and because she's pregnant, and feels this was her last opportunity for a vacation.

Per the WHO, seasonal flu kills an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 worldwide every year, so I'm still not jumping up and down about the coronavirus.

Influenza (Seasonal)

WHO fact sheet on influenza: includes key facts, definition, symptoms, transmission, seasonal epidemics, effects, prevention, WHO response.

www.who.int

If you don’t like this set of intelligence try this other set of intelligence (48 second mark)

 

[DaveXA]

The OT I work with has planned a two-week trip to Italy for a year. She and her family were supposed to leave tomorrow, and now it appears she won't be able to go. She is upset because of all the planning that went into the trip and because she's pregnant, and feels this was her last opportunity for a vacation.

Per the WHO, seasonal flu kills an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 worldwide every year, so I'm still not jumping up and down about the coronavirus.

Influenza (Seasonal)

WHO fact sheet on influenza: includes key facts, definition, symptoms, transmission, seasonal epidemics, effects, prevention, WHO response.

www.who.int

The difference is the flu, there are vaccines available and normally, most healthy people can fight off the flu. There is much we still don't know about COVID19. We do know enough that it is easily spread and that the mortality rate is far higher than the flu. There also is little known about longer term effects. Traveling to an area where the virus is starting to spread isn't a good idea. I mean what's the point if you go there and everything is shut down?

I have a friend who's been planning a lengthy vacation overseas, and has already spent over $15,000 and she just decided to cancel the trip. She was concerned she might not be able to get back out of the country and part of the trip included a 10 day cruise. Sucks because she just retired too.

 

[James Spader]

The difference is the flu, there are vaccines available and normally, most healthy people can fight off the flu. There is much we still don't know about COVID19. We do know enough that it is easily spread and that the mortality rate is far higher than the flu. There also is little known about longer term effects. Traveling to an area where the virus is starting to spread isn't a good idea. I mean what's the point if you go there and everything is shut down?

I have a friend who's been planning a lengthy vacation overseas, and has already spent over $15,000 and she just decided to cancel the trip. She was concerned she might not be able to get back out of the country and part of the trip included a 10 day cruise. Sucks because she just retired too.

Now she can use that extra money on supplies.

 

[saintmdterps]

"But this is different..." They're all different. That's the flu, it mutates from season to season and within seasons.

"But this could be the big one..." Nope, if and when the BIG ONE comes, it will be over before it even starts. Humans will never know what hit them. The fact that these outbreaks are still relatively limited in scope is telling.

I hate winter, and this is just one reason why.

I'm done with it. These end-of-the-world doomsday scenarios are depressing and completely unhelpful. I'm not a prepper, I decide long ago (about the time of The Road Warrior) that I have no desire to live to live in some post-apocalyptic wasteland.

Y'all knock yourselves out. Rates are low so Imma go buy me a new car

 

[B4YOU]

"We have no plan to quarantine any district or any city. We only quarantine individuals," Iran's president Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday.

Iran says it won't quarantine any towns or cities, despite recording the most coronavirus deaths outside of China

Iran said two people died from the coronavirus the same day it discovered its first case, leaving many questioning the honesty of the official count.

www.google.com

What American policy can’t accomplish, the Coronavirus is about to do. Iran is about to find out what it means to be cut off from the world.

This is where we see if China’s community quarantines are more effective than Iran’s individual/selective quarantines.

edit: Misspelled words

 

[Tapxe]

This is where we see is China’s community quarantines price more effective than Iran’s individual/selective quarantines.

We are also about to see the effectiveness of the US health care system vs. other industrialized nations systems. I do worry about the millions without coverage or security in the workplace which would allow them sick time to stay home and self isolate.

But we'll see how this plays out. At least, I hope and the numbers seem to bear out I should be around once this is over. Buckle up folks, it's going to be an interesting next few months.