Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak (Update: 17 US cases confirmed) (33 Viewers)

Eeyore

Flucifer
Joined
Aug 1, 1997
Messages
15,378
Reaction score
6,163
Age
49
Location
Ersetu
Online
Sticky Post
UPDATED TRACKER LINKS:



It shouldn't be a big deal but with a large number of people unable to afford healthcare, and the anti vax crowd growing there's a small chance that this could be interesting.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

superchuck500

tiny changes
VIP Subscribing Member
VIP Contributor
Diamond VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 9, 2004
Messages
51,592
Reaction score
73,947
Location
Mt. Pleasant, SC
Offline
I bet we find out this virus has been in the US for a while. So many people this winter have had vital respiratory infections resulting in bronchitis and pneumonia.
I think the timeline is the first patients were reported in a bulletin to the Chinese medical community on December 30. By December 31, China reported it to the WHO - but the virus hadn't been sequenced yet. It wasn't until January 9 that it was identified as novel coronavirus.

There were 27 in the initial report of late December. If the virus takes a week or two to become symptomatic, and even longer to become serious, it could be that it was there in Wuhan in somewhat early December. Anyone traveling out of Wuhan from mid-December through the present potentially carried the virus.
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
30,439
Reaction score
36,496
Age
12
Location
Jackson, ms
Offline
Seattle, Chicago, Houston and likely LA. San Fransisco also has direct flights from Wuhan and is almost surely going to see cases pop up in the next few days. NYC is one of the most popular destinations for Chinese traveling to USA. waiting for Mumbai and Delhi to get in the act and the virus will then be confirmed in the 10 largest cities in the world and 5 of the largest cities in the US. Assuming the LAX and IAH cases get confirmed then it means there is only 1 degree of separation from every international airport in the US and all but a handful of regional airports and we are still at least a week away from seeing the secondary cases with no direct relationship to China popping up.
 

superchuck500

tiny changes
VIP Subscribing Member
VIP Contributor
Diamond VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 9, 2004
Messages
51,592
Reaction score
73,947
Location
Mt. Pleasant, SC
Offline
Seattle, Chicago, Houston and likely LA. San Fransisco also has direct flights from Wuhan and is almost surely going to see cases pop up in the next few days. NYC is one of the most popular destinations for Chinese traveling to USA. waiting for Mumbai and Delhi to get in the act and the virus will then be confirmed in the 10 largest cities in the world and 5 of the largest cities in the US. Assuming the LAX and IAH cases get confirmed then it means there is only 1 degree of separation from every international airport in the US and all but a handful of regional airports and we are still at least a week away from seeing the secondary cases with no direct relationship to China popping up.
Yeah, it's really going to turn on transmission/contagiousness. Clearly Wuhan has a very serious problem - the case count is likely in the tens of thousands or higher there. The question is when does it transmit and how easily.

The patient in Washington state is being treated by a robot (to minimize human contact).
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
30,439
Reaction score
36,496
Age
12
Location
Jackson, ms
Offline
Yeah, it's really going to turn on transmission/contagiousness. Clearly Wuhan has a very serious problem - the case count is likely in the tens of thousands or higher there. The question is when does it transmit and how easily.

The patient in Washington state is being treated by a robot (to minimize human contact).
Another big question is climate. Will the disease spread less in the spring and summer or continue at the same rate?

Spoke to a guy from Wuhan this morning trying to get video shot from the City to distribute to media outlets and he says it is so much worse than what is being reported and that media is scared to go to worst areas and/or being kept out by Chinese Gov. He was willing to give it a go but at prices that arent very realistic. I'd go, I have full face respirators that can even be used as gas masks but dont want to get trapped there.
 

superchuck500

tiny changes
VIP Subscribing Member
VIP Contributor
Diamond VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 9, 2004
Messages
51,592
Reaction score
73,947
Location
Mt. Pleasant, SC
Offline

efil4stnias

one lonely Beastie i be...
VIP Contributor
Joined
Jul 9, 2001
Messages
31,138
Reaction score
29,411
Location
Covington
Offline
Another big question is climate. Will the disease spread less in the spring and summer or continue at the same rate?

Spoke to a guy from Wuhan this morning trying to get video shot from the City to distribute to media outlets and he says it is so much worse than what is being reported and that media is scared to go to worst areas and/or being kept out by Chinese Gov. He was willing to give it a go but at prices that arent very realistic. I'd go, I have full face respirators that can even be used as gas masks but dont want to get trapped there.
Worse as in number of infected or severity of illness? that is the question. And without proper reporting, everyone is left to speculate.
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
30,439
Reaction score
36,496
Age
12
Location
Jackson, ms
Offline
Worse as in number of infected or severity of illness? that is the question. And without proper reporting, everyone is left to speculate.
Yes but most people have no idea what bad on a national scale is let alone global. Anytime it's YOUR home town people think it's way worse than it is on a much larger scale. That is the case with natural disasters at least, I cant imagine it would be any different with disease. So if you csnt rely on Government and Government makes media unreliable then who the hell knows.
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
30,439
Reaction score
36,496
Age
12
Location
Jackson, ms
Offline
Now you get this from the NY Post. Problem with the post is they will often error to the side of clicks and who is saying these are dead bodies?
 

superchuck500

tiny changes
VIP Subscribing Member
VIP Contributor
Diamond VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 9, 2004
Messages
51,592
Reaction score
73,947
Location
Mt. Pleasant, SC
Offline
Now you get this from the NY Post. Problem with the post is they will often error to the side of clicks and who is saying these are dead bodies?
Supposedly a nurse from Wuhan.

But leaving questionable info aside, it is clear that the situation in Wuhan is forked up. It has been reported by the BBC, NYT, and SCMP (Hong Kong) that medical staffs in Wuhan are at the breaking point - supplies are limited and the patient number is overwhelming. Beijing has dispatched hundreds of military medical personnel to assist and they're building a new hospital. The reality is that there thousands if not tens of thousands of cases there. And I think there are likely a much higher number of fatalities than can't be reported until they are confirmed cases.
 

Twyst

Hall-of-Famer
Joined
Nov 5, 2006
Messages
4,286
Reaction score
6,819
Location
Finally back in NOLA!
Offline
When talking about numbers and thousands of infected and media coverage, one thing to keep in mind:

Everyone remembers the huge media coverage of SARS and when it was happening the world was definitely on edge. By the time SARS wasdone spreading there were 9000 cases worldwide.

If there are 10's of thousands infected with this its a HUGE deal. Im hoping its just hysteria again like SARS and MERS
 

bclemms

More than 15K posts served!
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Messages
30,439
Reaction score
36,496
Age
12
Location
Jackson, ms
Offline
When talking about numbers and thousands of infected and media coverage, one thing to keep in mind:

Everyone remembers the huge media coverage of SARS and when it was happening the world was definitely on edge. By the time SARS wasdone spreading there were 9000 cases worldwide.

If there are 10's of thousands infected with this its a HUGE deal. Im hoping its just hysteria again like SARS and MERS
Well if we are comparing it to SARS you have to also keep in mind that we've had twice the confirmed number of cases in half the amount of time and the numbers are increasing almost 50% per day the last 3 days. It took SARS almost 3 months to hit 900 confirmed cases.
 

superchuck500

tiny changes
VIP Subscribing Member
VIP Contributor
Diamond VIP Contributor
Joined
Aug 9, 2004
Messages
51,592
Reaction score
73,947
Location
Mt. Pleasant, SC
Offline
Well if we are comparing it to SARS you have to also keep in mind that we've had twice the confirmed number of cases in half the amount of time and the numbers are increasing almost 50% per day the last 3 days. It took SARS almost 3 months to hit 900 confirmed cases.
Just pointing out (already been said but) SARS killed 10% and MERS killed 1/3. At this point, Wuhan is not nearly as severe.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 10, Guests: 20)



Headlines

Top Bottom