COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (6 Viewers)

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Second case in Japan - but it's a Wuhan resident that traveled to Japan as a tourist. Until new cases are confirmed where the patient wasn't personally in Wuhan, it's still not an acute containment concern.




Singapore now with three - all having been in Wuhan.


 
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Wow. Officials expect the hospital to be open by February 2. Probably going to have to be field/temporary structure.

 
First case in Nepal. The man had been in Wuhan "earlier this month."


 
I bet we find out this virus has been in the US for a while. So many people this winter have had vital respiratory infections resulting in bronchitis and pneumonia.
 
Second US case confirmed - Chicago, the patient had been in Wuhan in late December. Additional suspected cases with connection to Wuhan are pending confirmation in California and Texas.


 
Great, so this lady had practically 2 weeks to be walking around spreading this virus around Chicago?
 
Great, so this lady had practically 2 weeks to be walking around spreading this virus around Chicago?

Yes, she had it for two weeks - we don't know exactly what she was doing but that's one of the real problems with this virus. It has a long asymptomatic period (upwards of two weeks).

What's not clear yet is whether the virus spreads during that period. Often viruses don't spread while latent/asymptomatic. If this one does, it's going to be a real problem - at least as far as the contagiousness question goes.
 
I bet we find out this virus has been in the US for a while. So many people this winter have had vital respiratory infections resulting in bronchitis and pneumonia.

I think the timeline is the first patients were reported in a bulletin to the Chinese medical community on December 30. By December 31, China reported it to the WHO - but the virus hadn't been sequenced yet. It wasn't until January 9 that it was identified as novel coronavirus.

There were 27 in the initial report of late December. If the virus takes a week or two to become symptomatic, and even longer to become serious, it could be that it was there in Wuhan in somewhat early December. Anyone traveling out of Wuhan from mid-December through the present potentially carried the virus.
 
Seattle, Chicago, Houston and likely LA. San Fransisco also has direct flights from Wuhan and is almost surely going to see cases pop up in the next few days. NYC is one of the most popular destinations for Chinese traveling to USA. waiting for Mumbai and Delhi to get in the act and the virus will then be confirmed in the 10 largest cities in the world and 5 of the largest cities in the US. Assuming the LAX and IAH cases get confirmed then it means there is only 1 degree of separation from every international airport in the US and all but a handful of regional airports and we are still at least a week away from seeing the secondary cases with no direct relationship to China popping up.
 
Seattle, Chicago, Houston and likely LA. San Fransisco also has direct flights from Wuhan and is almost surely going to see cases pop up in the next few days. NYC is one of the most popular destinations for Chinese traveling to USA. waiting for Mumbai and Delhi to get in the act and the virus will then be confirmed in the 10 largest cities in the world and 5 of the largest cities in the US. Assuming the LAX and IAH cases get confirmed then it means there is only 1 degree of separation from every international airport in the US and all but a handful of regional airports and we are still at least a week away from seeing the secondary cases with no direct relationship to China popping up.

Yeah, it's really going to turn on transmission/contagiousness. Clearly Wuhan has a very serious problem - the case count is likely in the tens of thousands or higher there. The question is when does it transmit and how easily.

The patient in Washington state is being treated by a robot (to minimize human contact).
 
Yeah, it's really going to turn on transmission/contagiousness. Clearly Wuhan has a very serious problem - the case count is likely in the tens of thousands or higher there. The question is when does it transmit and how easily.

The patient in Washington state is being treated by a robot (to minimize human contact).
Another big question is climate. Will the disease spread less in the spring and summer or continue at the same rate?

Spoke to a guy from Wuhan this morning trying to get video shot from the City to distribute to media outlets and he says it is so much worse than what is being reported and that media is scared to go to worst areas and/or being kept out by Chinese Gov. He was willing to give it a go but at prices that arent very realistic. I'd go, I have full face respirators that can even be used as gas masks but dont want to get trapped there.
 
Another big question is climate. Will the disease spread less in the spring and summer or continue at the same rate?

Spoke to a guy from Wuhan this morning trying to get video shot from the City to distribute to media outlets and he says it is so much worse than what is being reported and that media is scared to go to worst areas and/or being kept out by Chinese Gov. He was willing to give it a go but at prices that arent very realistic. I'd go, I have full face respirators that can even be used as gas masks but dont want to get trapped there.

Worse as in number of infected or severity of illness? that is the question. And without proper reporting, everyone is left to speculate.
 
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