COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (7 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

I think it's going to be a while before we see widespread confirmed cases of Wuhan from people that have not been in China because right now, the only people that are being tested are people that hit the very specific criteria of going to Wuhan or being in close contact of someone that has the virus. With the symptoms being so closely related to the Flu you aren't going to be able to confirm Wuhan cases without looking for it.

Yesterday I went full crazy and bought full facial respirators, tyvek suits, gloves, disinfectant sprays, wipes, hand sanitizers, etc. Not because I'm scared of it though, just think it's going to be a big story in the US in the coming weeks and if I want to go cover a high risk area for media then I'll have the option to do it safely.

Good thinking.

I’m still not convinced it’s going to spread as easily abroad. I agree about the timeline - it’s going to have a long tail on it for sure. But until new cases start popping in other countries, we can be cautiously optimistic that a limited number of cases can be managed without widespread infection.

 

[bclemms]

Good thinking.

I’m still not convinced it’s going to spread as easily abroad. I agree about the timeline - it’s going to have a long tail on it for sure. But until new cases start popping in other countries, we can be cautiously optimistic that a limited number of cases can be managed without widespread infection.

I'm not convinced of anything other than social media reports are always going to be chaotic and the Chinese Government puts the interest of those in power above all else. Trying to find the accurate middle ground is pretty difficult but one thing I'm betting on more than anything else is panic. I also know throughout history humans have never gotten ahead a disease that spreads easily so this will likely be a long running news story.

 

[faceman]

h1 and h5 varieties are the most deadly. they generally have a generational pandemic associated with them. I think in 2018 there were like 80k deaths from the flu but it still was a super low percentage vs the total number of cases.

Mortality rate is the key. The Spanish Flu killed 2% which was unheard of at the time. Spanish flu also killed the healthy more than the old/young/already sick. I bet that had a lot to do with the medicine at the time but still... if this strain kills between 5-15% then we are talking globally a potential of 780,000,000. In developed, westernized countries say its closer to 5% and in the parts of the world without indoor plumbing its closer to 20% My God....

Agreed, but the Spanish flu also occurred at the end of WW1. Many young men were involved in trench warfare. Those crowded
conditions and stress of warfare led to compromised immune systems according to some medical experts. I posted the following in
another thread around a year ago. My younger sister and I caught the Swine flu in early 1977. I was a member of my HS football,track
and baseball team. I was in the best shape of my life. I spent a week on my parents couch praying not to laugh or cough. If I caught
the same strain today, I'd probably be dead. That crap was no joke man.

 

[bclemms]

Agreed, but the Spanish flu also occurred at the end of WW1. Many young men were involved in trench warfare. Those crowded
conditions and stress of warfare led to compromised immune systems according to some medical experts. I posted the following in
another thread around a year ago. My younger sister and I caught the Swine flu in early 1977. I was a member of my HS football,track
and baseball team. I was in the best shape of my life. I spent a week on my parents couch praying not to laugh or cough. If I caught
the same strain today, I'd probably be dead. That crap was no joke man.

It's actually believed to be exactly the opposite.

Inside a Cytokine Storm: When Your Immune System is Too Strong

The vast majority of people who suffer severe complications from influenza are elderly or have compromised immune systems. In fact, almost 90% of people who die as a result of a flu infection in the United States are over 65, an age when the immune system’s ability to fight infection begins to...

www.getscience.com

 

[efil4stnias]

The end goal with the universal flu vaccine is pretty cool. Each flu virus has thousands of different DNA code but every flu virus also has part of the DNA code that is same. It basically uses every flu virus since 1918 in one shot and trains the immune system to recognize the the parts of the code that are the same in the flu so that any mutation it is ignoring everything but the base code that is the same. It's done really well in animal testing. Also of note, Bill Gates foundation has done a whole lot along the way to help make it happen.

This.

And distributed bio just received a grant from the Gates foundation (ep 4). Their pig trials in Guatemala showed promise and now next trial this year in UK. They just authored a paper on it. ( the two lead scientists who are young and extremely bright) really cool stuff.

 

[bclemms]

This.

And distributed bio just received a grant from the Gates foundation (ep 4). Their pig trials in Guatemala showed promise and now next trial this year in UK. They just authored a paper on it. ( the two lead scientists who are young and extremely bright) really cool stuff.

The most impressive part about them was the relentless pursuit while being self funded and refusing to sell out to private investment firms so they could pursue the idea of the entire world getting the vaccine at a fair price. If it works as expected they are going to go down in history and even if they only profit a few bucks from each vaccine going to make a hell of a lot of money.

 

[bclemms]

Conspiracy theory time.

So the student in Tennessee tested negative for Wuhan virus. Problem is, he was tested almost 2 days after the Texas A&M student who is suspected of having the virus and no word has been released on the test results of many people who went in for testing long before the Tn student. It's entirely possible the CDC is holding the results of positive test results in an attempt to reduce fear. If true, they are decreasing transparency and will ultimately feed the conspiracy theorists and do far more damage in the long run.

Also, Amazon is sold out of most surgical masks and N95 masks. Same with most stores in areas around New York and Houston areas.

Stores in central Texas are running out of medical masks after possible case of coronavirus reported

Medical supply stores in central Texas are experiencing a medical mask shortage after a Texas A&M student, having recently traveled to Wuhan, China, may have contracted coronavirus.

www.ksat.com

 

[superchuck500]

Conspiracy theory time.

So the student in Tennessee tested negative for Wuhan virus. Problem is, he was tested almost 2 days after the Texas A&M student who is suspected of having the virus and no word has been released on the test results of many people who went in for testing long before the Tn student. It's entirely possible the CDC is holding the results of positive test results in an attempt to reduce fear. If true, they are decreasing transparency and will ultimately feed the conspiracy theorists and do far more damage in the long run.

Also, Amazon is sold out of most surgical masks and N95 masks. Same with most stores in areas around New York and Houston areas.

Stores in central Texas are running out of medical masks after possible case of coronavirus reported

Medical supply stores in central Texas are experiencing a medical mask shortage after a Texas A&M student, having recently traveled to Wuhan, China, may have contracted coronavirus.

www.ksat.com

It’s also possible there was an issue with the Texas case’s first test and they needed to run it again.

 

[superchuck500]

It's actually believed to be exactly the opposite.

Inside a Cytokine Storm: When Your Immune System is Too Strong

The vast majority of people who suffer severe complications from influenza are elderly or have compromised immune systems. In fact, almost 90% of people who die as a result of a flu infection in the United States are over 65, an age when the immune system’s ability to fight infection begins to...

www.getscience.com

There’s actually some interesting discussion of this as it relates to
2019-nCoV in the Lancet paper.

The report also notes that some of the patients had family members that didn’t get infected - so the contagiousness is still unknown.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

 

[gboudx]

My wife got a mask from urgent care today when she went in for a flu test. She didn’t use it. But she tested positive for flu A. I’ll sell the mask for $100.

 

[bclemms]

My wife got a mask from urgent care today when she went in for a flu test. She didn’t use it. But she tested positive for flu A. I’ll sell the mask for $100.

Too soon for that. Give it a few more days but those dollars may be useless. Might want to ask for canned goods or ammunition.

 

[superchuck500]

This article is from the official newspaper in Hong Kong (South China Morning Post), which is credible and has been a bit conservative with its reporting.

Hundreds of patients in Wuhan who have yet to be confirmed as carrying the new strain of coronavirus are becoming increasingly desperate as the city struggles to cope with the numbers reporting pneumonia symptoms.

One 36-year-old, speaking by phone outside a major hospital in the city, said she had spent the past week taking her sick husband from hospital to hospital in a vain attempt to get him tested for the virus, which has already killed 41 people and infected hundreds more.

“I have nothing. No protective clothing, only a raincoat, and I am standing outside the hospital in the rain,” said the woman, who gave her name as Xiaoxi.

“I am desperate, I have lost count of time and days. I don’t know if we will both live to see the new year.”

Coronavirus infections surpass 1,900 as China appoints top-level crisis team

President Xi Jinping says people from different ethnic groups and sectors must work together to control outbreak.

www.scmp.com

 

[superchuck500]

Toronto

 

[bclemms]

Toronto

That one is a potential super spreader case. He was very ill when he contacted health services a day after returning from Wuhan.

 

[Eeyore]

Netflix Pandemic.

Its a series with 4 or 5 different vignettes, but one that caught my interest is about Distributed Bio.
They are pursuing a vaccine for ALL influenza. Basically, they have taken the idea that creating a vaccine taking bits of all historical inluenza up to recent and combining. They are currently in Guatemala doing trials. In the lab, it seems to be effective.

What a novel idea. Instead of focusing on one strain and estimating which strain will be virulent in the coming year, the vaccine would protect one from all influenza.

Toronto

I'd imagine that everyone who was on that plane is being looked at.