Young New Orleans Saints primed for Super Bowl run (3 Viewers)

[Brennan77]

It seems that way, but it's just not true. Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Pittsburg, and even our own New Orleans Saints all had records of no better than 8-8 the year before they went on 3+ year runs deep into the playoffs, with all of them making it to the Super Bowl and most of them winning it.

Today's NFL isn't about gradually improving from 4-12 to 7-9 to 9-7 to 11-5 to 13-3 and then winning it all.

It's about setting in place multi year plans (by drafting well and managing your contracts/salary cap) that will coincide at one perfect time and allow you a 3 year run. One of those years you get lucky with injuries and win it all, basically.

A few things have to go right, all while your FO is making good decisions and sticking to the plan. Ideally, your valued vets are in the middle of their 2nd contract, ie. their prime. Your draft picks are in the middle of their rookie deals, and as such, they are still cheap. You have just one or two holes, so you can be very specific in your FA targets and at worst, overpay a smidge for a solid starter.

But here's what you absolutely MUST have to even consider putting this plan in place and going on a three year run:

1) Above average QB play. Sometimes a guy just gets hot (Flacco, Kaep, Newton), sometimes you just get blindly lucky in the 3rd round (Wilson). But for the most part, you want to have an elite guy back there (Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger).

2) Semi-inexpensive studs at the other "Big 5" positions: LT, #1 Pass Catcher (usually a WR), Pass Rusher, DT, and #1CB.

Don't look now, but the Saints have all of these pieces in place (just need the Pass Rusher in FA, if no one develops) for next offseason to put them WAY over the top. Carolina & Seattle will be riding the back end of their runs while the Saints will be on year one of theirs. The talking heads will laude the amazing offseason that the Saints have before 2017, but this plan started with the two JG personnel decisions and has been in place since. Every move, even the ones that didn't work, was made with this run in mind, I promise.

Enjoy this year for what it is, a "first draft" if you will, of the team that is going to dominate for the rest of Brees' career.

P.S. The Patriots are not factored into this discussion in any way, due to the fatal four-way deal that Robert Kraft, Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, and the dark lord Beelzebub himself have in place. Seriously.

Great post. That's why I'm encouraged by the team this year, especially the receivers. It's all there, and will be next year, without having to pay more money.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

 

[crosswatt]

Drew will be around for about 2-3 more years. This team isn't winning a Super Bowl in that time nor anytime soon. You don't go from being this bad too winning a Super Bowl in a couple of Off season.

I don't know if your just being facetious or if you truly are this ignorant concerning NFL history.

The fact is that, since 1998, when the Rams went from 4-12 to 13-3 and won the Super Bowl, five non-winning teams (8-8 or worse) have gone on to win the championship the following year.

*EDIT*
duckjr said it much better than I did.

It seems that way, but it's just not true. Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Pittsburg, and even our own New Orleans Saints all had records of no better than 8-8 the year before they went on 3+ year runs deep into the playoffs, with all of them making it to the Super Bowl and most of them winning it.

Today's NFL isn't about gradually improving from 4-12 to 7-9 to 9-7 to 11-5 to 13-3 and then winning it all.

It's about setting in place multi year plans (by drafting well and managing your contracts/salary cap) that will coincide at one perfect time and allow you a 3 year run. One of those years you get lucky with injuries and win it all, basically.

A few things have to go right, all while your FO is making good decisions and sticking to the plan. Ideally, your valued vets are in the middle of their 2nd contract, ie. their prime. Your draft picks are in the middle of their rookie deals, and as such, they are still cheap. You have just one or two holes, so you can be very specific in your FA targets and at worst, overpay a smidge for a solid starter.

But here's what you absolutely MUST have to even consider putting this plan in place and going on a three year run:

1) Above average QB play. Sometimes a guy just gets hot (Flacco, Kaep, Newton), sometimes you just get blindly lucky in the 3rd round (Wilson). But for the most part, you want to have an elite guy back there (Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger).

2) Semi-inexpensive studs at the other "Big 5" positions: LT, #1 Pass Catcher (usually a WR), Pass Rusher, DT, and #1CB.

Don't look now, but the Saints have all of these pieces in place (just need the Pass Rusher in FA, if no one develops) for next offseason to put them WAY over the top. Carolina & Seattle will be riding the back end of their runs while the Saints will be on year one of theirs. The talking heads will laude the amazing offseason that the Saints have before 2017, but this plan started with the two JG personnel decisions and has been in place since. Every move, even the ones that didn't work, was made with this run in mind, I promise.

Enjoy this year for what it is, a "first draft" if you will, of the team that is going to dominate for the rest of Brees' career.

P.S. The Patriots are not factored into this discussion in any way, due to the fatal four-way deal that Robert Kraft, Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, and the dark lord Beelzebub himself have in place. Seriously.

 

[St.Dan]

It seems that way, but it's just not true. Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Pittsburg, and even our own New Orleans Saints all had records of no better than 8-8 the year before they went on 3+ year runs deep into the playoffs, with all of them making it to the Super Bowl and most of them winning it.

Today's NFL isn't about gradually improving from 4-12 to 7-9 to 9-7 to 11-5 to 13-3 and then winning it all.

It's about setting in place multi year plans (by drafting well and managing your contracts/salary cap) that will coincide at one perfect time and allow you a 3 year run. One of those years you get lucky with injuries and win it all, basically.

A few things have to go right, all while your FO is making good decisions and sticking to the plan. Ideally, your valued vets are in the middle of their 2nd contract, ie. their prime. Your draft picks are in the middle of their rookie deals, and as such, they are still cheap. You have just one or two holes, so you can be very specific in your FA targets and at worst, overpay a smidge for a solid starter.

But here's what you absolutely MUST have to even consider putting this plan in place and going on a three year run:

1) Above average QB play. Sometimes a guy just gets hot (Flacco, Kaep, Newton), sometimes you just get blindly lucky in the 3rd round (Wilson). But for the most part, you want to have an elite guy back there (Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger).

2) Semi-inexpensive studs at the other "Big 5" positions: LT, #1 Pass Catcher (usually a WR), Pass Rusher, DT, and #1CB.

Don't look now, but the Saints have all of these pieces in place (just need the Pass Rusher in FA, if no one develops) for next offseason to put them WAY over the top. Carolina & Seattle will be riding the back end of their runs while the Saints will be on year one of theirs. The talking heads will laude the amazing offseason that the Saints have before 2017, but this plan started with the two JG personnel decisions and has been in place since. Every move, even the ones that didn't work, was made with this run in mind, I promise.

Enjoy this year for what it is, a "first draft" if you will, of the team that is going to dominate for the rest of Brees' career.

P.S. The Patriots are not factored into this discussion in any way, due to the fatal four-way deal that Robert Kraft, Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, and the dark lord Beelzebub himself have in place. Seriously.

The dark lord role has blonde hair, in the case of the Pats.

And agreed that we're positioned correctly during this rebuild. Having more consistent officiating would be nice, too, though.

 

[Bill]

Man the roof would blow off the dome and land on one of our few remaining cornerbacks.

fify

 

[Kingston]

Was kikaha ever put on IR?

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

Nope he is on the PUP list but that is just a formality thing since he was hurt prior to the start of the season you can put him there giving him a shot to recover then move him to IR later in the year when you have to.

That said the guy has torn the same ACL 3 times now. The odds of him coming back this season are infinitesimal. The deck is stacked against him to even play again, ever.

You can't rule it out and as of now it is a possibility but an exceeding slim one.

 

[cgarsmoker]

As of 1990, teams that start 0-2 have 12% chance of making the playoffs.

 

[bobad]

We're 2-0, we have them right where we want them.

 

[insidejob]

We're 2-0, we have them right where we want them.

We're 2-0 at what?

I'm confused.

 

[Complex Kid]

I'm in. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

3 out of 8 people don't get this reference and that makes me the sads.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

It seems that way, but it's just not true. Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, Pittsburg, and even our own New Orleans Saints all had records of no better than 8-8 the year before they went on 3+ year runs deep into the playoffs, with all of them making it to the Super Bowl and most of them winning it.

Today's NFL isn't about gradually improving from 4-12 to 7-9 to 9-7 to 11-5 to 13-3 and then winning it all.

It's about setting in place multi year plans (by drafting well and managing your contracts/salary cap) that will coincide at one perfect time and allow you a 3 year run. One of those years you get lucky with injuries and win it all, basically.

A few things have to go right, all while your FO is making good decisions and sticking to the plan. Ideally, your valued vets are in the middle of their 2nd contract, ie. their prime. Your draft picks are in the middle of their rookie deals, and as such, they are still cheap. You have just one or two holes, so you can be very specific in your FA targets and at worst, overpay a smidge for a solid starter.

But here's what you absolutely MUST have to even consider putting this plan in place and going on a three year run:

1) Above average QB play. Sometimes a guy just gets hot (Flacco, Kaep, Newton), sometimes you just get blindly lucky in the 3rd round (Wilson). But for the most part, you want to have an elite guy back there (Brees, Manning, Roethlisberger).

2) Semi-inexpensive studs at the other "Big 5" positions: LT, #1 Pass Catcher (usually a WR), Pass Rusher, DT, and #1CB.

Don't look now, but the Saints have all of these pieces in place (just need the Pass Rusher in FA, if no one develops) for next offseason to put them WAY over the top. Carolina & Seattle will be riding the back end of their runs while the Saints will be on year one of theirs. The talking heads will laude the amazing offseason that the Saints have before 2017, but this plan started with the two JG personnel decisions and has been in place since. Every move, even the ones that didn't work, was made with this run in mind, I promise.

Enjoy this year for what it is, a "first draft" if you will, of the team that is going to dominate for the rest of Brees' career.

P.S. The Patriots are not factored into this discussion in any way, due to the fatal four-way deal that Robert Kraft, Bill Belicheck, Tom Brady, and the dark lord Beelzebub himself have in place. Seriously.

Nice Post Duck

 

[Bill]

3 out of 8 people don't get this reference and that makes me the sads.

Then you just have to help those poor unfortunate savages...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ep-xgd_eETE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[SaintsFanatic]

Just in case anyone was wondering.

125:1

damn. i dumped $50 @ 66-1 preseason. Guess i'll have to double down

 

[duckjr78]

I don't know if your just being facetious or if you truly are this ignorant concerning NFL history.

The fact is that, since 1998, when the Rams went from 4-12 to 13-3 and won the Super Bowl, five non-winning teams (8-8 or worse) have gone on to win the championship the following year.

*EDIT*
duckjr said it much better than I did.

Thank you, and thank you for adding the Rams in as those who fit the same "3 Year Run" mold. I hadn't gone back that far, but they more than fit. 4-12, right into a 3 year run with 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 victory.

The Ravens even went 5-11 the year before going on a 6 out of 7 year run to the playoffs, with 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 victory.

This is how it happens. If you aren't the Packers, Patriots, or Colts (with Manning), you have to do it this way. The only reason those teams didn't fit this mold is because they have a convergence of two massive factors: 1) A first ballot HOF'er on their team & 2) A complete lack of competence by all 3 teams other teams in their division, over an extended period of time. I hate to say it, but the ability at least one of the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers to scrape together an 11 win season every year just hasn't allowed the Saints to enjoy the same success as these three blessed teams.

 

[SunshinePumper]

Thank you, and thank you for adding the Rams in as those who fit the same "3 Year Run" mold. I hadn't gone back that far, but they more than fit. 4-12, right into a 3 year run with 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 victory.

The Ravens even went 5-11 the year before going on a 6 out of 7 year run to the playoffs, with 2 Super Bowl appearances and 1 victory.

This is how it happens. If you aren't the Packers, Patriots, or Colts (with Manning), you have to do it this way. The only reason those teams didn't fit this mold is because they have a convergence of two massive factors: 1) A first ballot HOF'er on their team & 2) A complete lack of competence by all 3 teams other teams in their division, over an extended period of time. I hate to say it, but the ability at least one of the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers to scrape together an 11 win season every year just hasn't allowed the Saints to enjoy the same success as these three blessed teams.

Ehh, the Packers had some sordid teams in the mid-Aughts, too. 4-12 in 2005, 6-10 in 2008, had a couple of 8-8/9-7 mixed in too IIRC

 

[Swimmer]

Just in case anyone was wondering.

125:1

Thise are terrible odds. I think no worse than 110:1 is more accurate