Moving up in the draft this year for a QB: What would it take?
It looks like the target would have to be 12 if we want to get someone like Richardson (if Levis doesn’t fall out of the top ten).
Beyond that, you’re looking at the clear next tier, who would likely be there when we pick anyway as of today (Hooker, McKee, etc).
Good stuff.Let's assume for the purpose of this post that we rank the top quarterbacks:
Bryce Young
CJ Stroud
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson.
What would it take to get them? Let's have a closer look below:
Who has the first 10 picks and what are their team needs? (Per pff.com)
Chicago loves them some Justin Fields, so they won't be drafting a QB, but if you want to get your top pick for QB, you would have to trade up to number 1, because Houston, will likely take their choice of QB at number 2. Arizona has too much money invested into Murray to take a QB at 3, if your preferred QB is still available, you may could trade to the number 3 spot, because in all likelihood, the Colts will draft Young or Stroud, whichever one is still there.
This is where things get hairy. Seattle could resign Geno Smith, or they could draft a QB right here and while I don't expect Detriot to be in the Market for a QB, the next 3 teams, Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers are all in need of a QB. So it's my opinion that you would have to trade up to the number 6 spot with Detroit in order to get one of the "Top Tier QBs."
What would it take to get us there?
Let's have a look at the NFL draft pick value chart
The number 6 pick is worth on this chart about 1600 points. Our number 29 is worth 640 and our number 40 is worth 500.
It would take our first and second this year, plus probably our 1st next year to move to number 6. That is a lot to give up assuming the top 2 rated guys are off the board, unless we really like one of the others.
"But SWJJ, every year QBs fall in the draft, just like Aaron Rodgers did!"
Assuming one (or more) of the guys we are targeting make it out of the top 10, how far could they fall?
Well, not far.
There are 3 teams in a row that have QB needs in the mid rounds. Let's assume Texans have taken their QB of choice at number 2, so they could be amenable to letting us trade ahead of the Jets, to snag the last top tier QB. Their number 12 pick is valued at 1250. Our 29, again worth 640 and our 40, again worth 500, could be paired with a late round pick (probably next year) to jump up and take our QB at 12.
This would not look like last year, where we make the trade ahead of time. This would go down the day of the draft, assuming one of the top dogs slide out of the top 10.
I really don't see a way that we could afford to use draft capital to move into the top 10, but if a QB we want falls out of the top 10, we could go get him at number 12 via trade with the Texans.
Your thoughts and feedback are welcomed.
It looks like the target would have to be 12 if we want to get someone like Richardson (if Levis doesn’t fall out of the top ten).
Beyond that, you’re looking at the clear next tier, who would likely be there when we pick anyway as of today (Hooker, McKee, etc).