Moving up in the draft this year for a QB: What would it take? (1 Viewer)

[SWJJ]

Let's assume for the purpose of this post that we rank the top quarterbacks:

Bryce Young
CJ Stroud
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson.

What would it take to get them? Let's have a closer look below:

Who has the first 10 picks and what are their team needs? (Per pff.com)




Chicago loves them some Justin Fields, so they won't be drafting a QB, but if you want to get your top pick for QB, you would have to trade up to number 1, because Houston, will likely take their choice of QB at number 2. Arizona has too much money invested into Murray to take a QB at 3, if your preferred QB is still available, you may could trade to the number 3 spot, because in all likelihood, the Colts will draft Young or Stroud, whichever one is still there.

This is where things get hairy. Seattle could resign Geno Smith, or they could draft a QB right here and while I don't expect Detriot to be in the Market for a QB, the next 3 teams, Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers are all in need of a QB. So it's my opinion that you would have to trade up to the number 6 spot with Detroit in order to get one of the "Top Tier QBs."

What would it take to get us there?

Let's have a look at the NFL draft pick value chart




The number 6 pick is worth on this chart about 1600 points. Our number 29 is worth 640 and our number 40 is worth 500.

It would take our first and second this year, plus probably our 1st next year to move to number 6. That is a lot to give up assuming the top 2 rated guys are off the board, unless we really like one of the others.


"But SWJJ, every year QBs fall in the draft, just like Aaron Rodgers did!"

Assuming one (or more) of the guys we are targeting make it out of the top 10, how far could they fall?
Well, not far.


There are 3 teams in a row that have QB needs in the mid rounds. Let's assume Texans have taken their QB of choice at number 2, so they could be amenable to letting us trade ahead of the Jets, to snag the last top tier QB. Their number 12 pick is valued at 1250. Our 29, again worth 640 and our 40, again worth 500, could be paired with a late round pick (probably next year) to jump up and take our QB at 12.

This would not look like last year, where we make the trade ahead of time. This would go down the day of the draft, assuming one of the top dogs slide out of the top 10.

I really don't see a way that we could afford to use draft capital to move into the top 10, but if a QB we want falls out of the top 10, we could go get him at number 12 via trade with the Texans.


Your thoughts and feedback are welcomed.

 

[jboss]

Not worth it. Not this year at least. Lack of draft capital/position aside, I think at some point we just have to take the poison pill and let go of the era we've grown accustomed to. I don't think mortgaging who knows how many draft picks on a, IMO, so-so QB class is a good idea.

 

[Saint Spud]

Let's assume for the purpose of this post that we rank the top quarterbacks:

Bryce Young
CJ Stroud
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson.

What would it take to get them? Let's have a closer look below:

Who has the first 10 picks and what are their team needs? (Per pff.com)




Chicago loves them some Justin Fields, so they won't be drafting a QB, but if you want to get your top pick for QB, you would have to trade up to number 1, because Houston, will likely take their choice of QB at number 2. Arizona has too much money invested into Murray to take a QB at 3, if your preferred QB is still available, you may could trade to the number 3 spot, because in all likelihood, the Colts will draft Young or Stroud, whichever one is still there.

This is where things get hairy. Seattle could resign Geno Smith, or they could draft a QB right here and while I don't expect Detriot to be in the Market for a QB, the next 3 teams, Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers are all in need of a QB. So it's my opinion that you would have to trade up to the number 6 spot with Detroit in order to get one of the "Top Tier QBs."

What would it take to get us there?

Let's have a look at the NFL draft pick value chart




The number 6 pick is worth on this chart about 1600 points. Our number 29 is worth 640 and our number 40 is worth 500.

It would take our first and second this year, plus probably our 1st next year to move to number 6. That is a lot to give up assuming the top 2 rated guys are off the board, unless we really like one of the others.


"But SWJJ, every year QBs fall in the draft, just like Aaron Rodgers did!"

Assuming one (or more) of the guys we are targeting make it out of the top 10, how far could they fall?
Well, not far.


There are 3 teams in a row that have QB needs in the mid rounds. Let's assume Texans have taken their QB of choice at number 2, so they could be amenable to letting us trade ahead of the Jets, to snag the last top tier QB. Their number 12 pick is valued at 1250. Our 29, again worth 640 and our 40, again worth 500, could be paired with a late round pick (probably next year) to jump up and take our QB at 12.

This would not look like last year, where we make the trade ahead of time. This would go down the day of the draft, assuming one of the top dogs slide out of the top 10.

I really don't see a way that we could afford to use draft capital to move into the top 10, but if a QB we want falls out of the top 10, we could go get him at number 12 via trade with the Texans.


Your thoughts and feedback are welcomed.

Good stuff.

It looks like the target would have to be 12 if we want to get someone like Richardson (if Levis doesn’t fall out of the top ten).

Beyond that, you’re looking at the clear next tier, who would likely be there when we pick anyway as of today (Hooker, McKee, etc).

 

[tim martin]

Only chance is if stroud has a bad combine. If so maybe falls to 8-12 range. Would take 29 plus next years first and one more pick

 

[SaintRay]

Our only chance to move up inside of the Top 3 would be to trade a combination of picks and players.
So who do you want to trade away?
Lattimore?
Kamara?
Ram?
We don’t have much high-end trade bait in house. Thomas is gonna walk away free.
I would part with one of these players for a franchise QB.
Our best option may be free agency, or my favorite scenario, if possible, is trading back our #29 for a 1st in 2024, then having 2 premium picks in next years draft.

 

[Rouxble]

Any of those teams from 7-16 can trade up more cheaply than we can. Even if we do want to trade up to #6, the Raiders #7 would be a more appealing asset, either to be used as a pick or traded away again for even more picks.

 

[cwesleyc]

If they feel strongly about someone, it makes sense to use serious resources to move up for that player. I'd prefer they package picks and player(s), so we aren't completely devoid of draft capital. We will go nowhere long term drafting late round prospects or signing retreads and thinking that resolves the issue.

 

[Rouxble]

As an aside, this draft value chart was created after analyzing draft day trades, showing the value that teams have placed on each pick (not necessarily what each pick should be worth). It would probably take two firsts plus our second to get to six. This chart assumes a next year pick is worth roughly 32 picks higher than this years draft slot, so it would be like trading picks valued 29, 40, and 42.

 

[Saint Spud]

As an aside, this draft value chart was created after analyzing draft day trades, showing the value that teams have placed on each pick (not necessarily what each pick should be worth). It would probably take two firsts plus our second to get to six. This chart assumes a next year pick is worth roughly 32 picks higher than this years draft slot, so it would be like trading picks valued 29, 40, and 42.

I mean…if a QB we love falls to that spot, I’d have no problem with that.

I’d much rather spend a lot for someone we love than just spend the 29th on the “best of the rest.”

 

[gregh]

too many needs, need a lot of cheap players, better to get a vet this year.

 

[Infoman]

If we draft Richardson in the 1st I will buy a falcons jersey and jump off the GNO bridge in it.

At this point I see us getting a FA QB and maybe drafting a guy like McKee, Dugan, or McCall in the later rounds.

If Levis, Stroud, or Young some how inexplicably drop into the late teens…. Then there’s a possibility. But that’s not likely IMO.

 

[Brandon13]

Moving up to draft Richardson would be insane imo. If one of the big three falls or is somehow attainable then okay, but to go all in on an out and out project seems all but destined to backfire on us.

 

[RaginCajun83]

Just stay at 29, there’s not a QB worth trading up for plus they would have to pull a Ditka type trade to even get close to the top 2 QBs

 

[jahsoul357]

I would take Tyjae Spears over any QB in this draft....
There, I said it..lol

 

[jesusfish]

Great thought exercise. I think the top 3 guys will be prohibitively expensive to move up high enough to draft.

I could see a scenario where Richardson is there in the mid teens because he is such a divisive prospect. I think it still costs us 2 firsts plus at least a 3rd to jump to the mid teens. That's not crazy for a franchise QB. But does the Front Office even like Richardson is a whole other question.