After eight weeks, more Saints numbers - even more Saints data plus Bears info added on post #13 (1 Viewer)

[Rouxble]

THEN AND NOW

We are now eight weeks into the 2023 season, and to start off I thought I would post some differences between the first four weeks and the last four weeks.





On offense, it looks like we have definitely moved towards being a run-heavy team--more runs in the first half, more runs on first down, more runs in power situations, and more runs when ahead in the second half. What's interesting is that our yards/carry and rushing success rate have been more or less flat, but our passing has improved. Our yards/DB have increased from 5.0 to 6.9 and our passing success rate has increased from 43% to 48%. It looks like taking the burden off of Carr may have improved our overall passing game.

On defense, we are getting more of our sacks from the defensive line while also sending the house at the second highest rate. Not listed above is our usage of man coverage, which has increased from 42% (3rd) to 49% (2nd). We do it better than just about anybody, allowing only 4.5 yards/att (2nd) over the last four weeks.

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SO WHAT WENT RIGHT LAST WEEK?

A few weeks back, I posted about being more calculated on first and second down to set up better third down opportunities. I also posted about taking fewer deep shots on third and manageable, opting to move the chains instead of throw away a drive. The Saints did all of the above:



We were great on first down, and leaned on the run on second and six or less to give us better chances to extend the drive.

As for third down, after throwing 4 deep attempts on 11 third and manageable situations against Jacksonville, we only took 1 shot on 9 opportunities against the Colts. We were rewarded, converting 56% of our tries after only converting 21% the week prior.

Since we were more effective on third down, that afforded us the opportunity to take more shots on early downs--on five attempts, we connected twice for 102 yards and a TD.

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I'm short on time, so I'll just post what I have so far. Hopefully I'll add more before the game against the Bears.

 

[FooDoo]

Do you have stats for the OL? Curious if the passing attacks improved because the OL improved.

 

[B4YOU]

Awesome analysis! Thanks.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

THEN AND NOW

We are now eight weeks into the 2023 season, and to start off I thought I would post some differences between the first four weeks and the last four weeks.





On offense, it looks like we have definitely moved towards being a run-heavy team--more runs in the first half, more runs on first down, more runs in power situations, and more runs when ahead in the second half. What's interesting is that our yards/carry and rushing success rate have been more or less flat, but our passing has improved. Our yards/DB have increased from 5.0 to 6.9 and our passing success rate has increased from 43% to 48%. It looks like taking the burden off of Carr may have improved our overall passing game.

On defense, we are getting more of our sacks from the defensive line while also sending the house at the second highest rate. Not listed above is our usage of man coverage, which has increased from 42% (3rd) to 49% (2nd). We do it better than just about anybody, allowing only 4.5 yards/att (2nd) over the last four weeks.

---

SO WHAT WENT RIGHT LAST WEEK?

A few weeks back, I posted about being more calculated on first and second down to set up better third down opportunities. I also posted about taking fewer deep shots on third and manageable, opting to move the chains instead of throw away a drive. The Saints did all of the above:



We were great on first down, and leaned on the run on second and six or less to give us better chances to extend the drive.

As for third down, after throwing 4 deep attempts on 11 third and manageable situations against Jacksonville, we only took 1 shot on 9 opportunities against the Colts. We were rewarded, converting 56% of our tries after only converting 21% the week prior.

Since we were more effective on third down, that afforded us the opportunity to take more shots on early downs--on five attempts, we connected twice for 102 yards and a TD.

---

I'm short on time, so I'll just post what I have so far. Hopefully I'll add more before the game against the Bears.

We finally figured out that you MUST support Carr w/ a valid run game. Early in the season Pete had Carr chucking passes like he had 12’ Drew Brees. Carr isn’t that type of point Guard or distributor.

He does have a talented arm and can make some throws Drew couldn’t, especially later in his career.

They need to continue to lean on that part of their personality. Every game should be a Taysom game.

Only thing I’m worried about is Pete, slipping back into who he’s wired to be at bad times. I’ve seen too many times, a coach gets it during the season, gets to the playoffs. has some adversity, and slips into old tendencies. In Pete’s case, winging it and forgetting about the run, specifically the power run

 

[Rouxble]

Do you have stats for the OL? Curious if the passing attacks improved because the OL improved.

If we’re talking about first four weeks versus last four weeks, it’s not as big of a difference as you would expect. Carr was under pressure on 35% of his drop backs the first four weeks versus 34% the last four weeks.

That said, the game against the Colts was his first game where he was under pressure less than 20% of the time.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

If we’re talking about first four weeks versus last four weeks, it’s not as big of a difference as you would expect. Carr was under pressure on 35% of his drop backs the first four weeks versus 34% the last four weeks.

That said, the game against the Colts was his first game where he was under pressure less than 20% of the time.

Probably had something to do with pass rushers not being able to tee off.

id like to see us incorporate more delayed handoffs from the Gun too. We did it a few times vs IND and it resulted in positive plays, but more importantly forced the Dline to at least consider playing run vs a pass formation

 

[Rouxble]

We finally figured out that you MUST support Carr w/ a valid run game. Early in the season Pete had Carr chucking passes like he had 12’ Drew Brees. Carr isn’t that type of point Guard or distributor.

He does have a talented arm and can make some throws Drew couldn’t, especially later in his career.

They need to continue to lean on that part of their personality. Every game should be a Taysom game.

Only thing I’m worried about is Pete, slipping back into who he’s wired to be at bad times. I’ve seen too many times, a coach gets it during the season, gets to the playoffs. has some adversity, and slips into old tendencies. In Pete’s case, winging it and forgetting about the run, specifically the power run

You’ve been beating that drum for awhile, and the results have been good with an increased emphasis on the run game.

I understand your concerns about PC, I also have concerns about Carr going back to throwing away downs when he is feeling the pressure. Those deep shots on third and manageable drove me crazy, as did the hopeless fades he threw on earlier downs. I liked that practically every deep shot had a good chance this past week, otherwise the ball was being distributed underneath.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

You’ve been beating that drum for awhile, and the results have been good with an increased emphasis on the run game.

I understand your concerns about PC, I also have concerns about Carr going back to throwing away downs when he is feeling the pressure. Those deep shots on third and manageable drove me crazy, as did the hopeless fades he threw on earlier downs. I liked that practically every deep shot had a good chance this past week, otherwise the ball was being distributed underneath.

I think Carr feeling pressure depends on Pete asking too much of him. Carr is a different QB in games where he’s asked to throw 50+ times. It weighs heavily on him because his flaws begin to get exposed the more he has to toss it.

Keeping him around 25-35 passes a game would be ideal. Even easier to do when you incorporate Taysom more.

 

[Mamba]

I can't tell if your chart covers this, but it seems like when we're in 2nd & 10, we choose to run the ball at a very high percentage. I'd prefer they mix it up a little more, and really lean more heavily on the passing game in that scenario.

 

[Rouxble]

Probably had something to do with pass rushers not being able to tee off.

id like to see us incorporate more delayed handoffs from the Gun too. We did it a few times vs IND and it resulted in positive plays, but more importantly forced the Dline to at least consider playing run vs a pass formation

We have been one of the most unbalanced teams from shotgun, I believe passing 90% of the time on early downs through the first seven weeks. It’s probably a bigger tell than player A or B being on the field.

 

[Rouxble]

I can't tell if your chart covers this, but it seems like when we're in 2nd & 10, we choose to run the ball at a very high percentage. I'd prefer they mix it up a little more, and really lean more heavily on the passing game in that scenario.

We tend to pass more in 2nd and 7+, I would have to look at 2nd and 10 specifically but I know someone posted a few weeks ago we ran the most from that down/distance after an incomplete first down pass.

 

[ItFan]

Seems like what fans suggested worked

 

[Rouxble]

I'll add a few more Saints facts, follow up with a look at the Bagent-led Bears.

PERSONNEL MATTERS

A lot has been made of player A or B being a tell, and it had me thinking... what about complete personnel packages? We've already looked some at personnel groupings (11, 12, 6OL+, etc.), but what about the different combinations of players on the field?

The first thing I looked at was how many different groupings of players the Saints have used on offense this season. The number was almost unbelievable. We have used 198 unique personnel packages through eight games. Injuries, suspensions, and other circumstances have contributed, but I wouldn't have assumed we used that many. Our most common package was used 77 times (14% of all plays): Hill, Kamara, Thomas, Olave, Shaheed. Only seven packages have been used at least 10 times, and all of those packages feature our top three WR's.

With so many different packages, it would be hard for defenses to key on any without overwhelming the players. However, if you remember, I said all of our top packages feature Thomas, Olave, and Shaheed. Do we have a tendency with those three guys out there?

The answer is yes--we pass 83% of the time when they are on the field together. When we have 3+ WR on the field and one of them isn't the big three, we pass only 45% of the time. Pretty balanced by comparison.

Despite the giveaway with our big three, we still average 5.8 yds/DB when they are all on the field at the same time versus 6.2 yds/DB when at least one is missing. Where we actually gain a slight edge is in the run game, probably due to surprise. We average 4.1 yds/rush when the big three is out there, and 3.6 yds/rush when they are not.

Still not as good as the Bowden edge, where we get 4.3 yds/rush when he is on the field.

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ON TO THE BEARS

Sorry for the block of words there, I'll try to keep this one short and to the point.



The offensive stats are for the last three games, defensive stats are for the season. The Bears definitely lean on the run to help their young QB, and they've done it well. They've averaged 4.2 yds/att and have scored five rushing TD's in the last three games. Even with all that rushing success, they don't test the defense vertically too often, but when they do it's on early downs.

Here are their down/distance tendencies for the last three games:



They have played really well on 1st down, driven by a 69% success rate when passing. They also play very well whenever they have that successful first down and really poorly otherwise, so step one is to figure out how to stop their early down passing game.

One thing to consider is that Bagent has thrown 32 passes on first down, and 12 have been behind the LOS. The key is stopping YAC on those plays, because the Bears have averaged 9.9 YAC/completion on those throws, with a 67% success rate per attempt. We need our guys to make tackles and force those 2nd/3rd and long situations.

Otherwise, we just need to play good pass defense, with Bagent targeting his WR's and TE's on the other 19/20 attempts. On those passes, he is 17/19 for 198 yards and an interception.

That's it for this week, thanks to all for reading. Looking forward to another Saints win this Sunday. WHO DAT!

 

[Cougar 2]

We tend to pass more in 2nd and 7+, I would have to look at 2nd and 10 specifically but I know someone posted a few weeks ago we ran the most from that down/distance after an incomplete first down pass.

I honestly have absolutely no idea about our tendencies in those situations!



That said, IMO, the NFL is about “situational football”. So let’s say it’s 2nd n 7. N let’s say we decide we want to run da ball. What do we do? First, we come out in an “11” package: 1 RB, 1TE, 3 WRs: to give a passing “look”. Add to it with a lil motion from a WR. But who’s in to get da carry at RB?

Jamaal Williams.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

I'll add a few more Saints facts, follow up with a look at the Bagent-led Bears.

PERSONNEL MATTERS

A lot has been made of player A or B being a tell, and it had me thinking... what about complete personnel packages? We've already looked some at personnel groupings (11, 12, 6OL+, etc.), but what about the different combinations of players on the field?

The first thing I looked at was how many different groupings of players the Saints have used on offense this season. The number was almost unbelievable. We have used 198 unique personnel packages through eight games. Injuries, suspensions, and other circumstances have contributed, but I wouldn't have assumed we used that many. Our most common package was used 77 times (14% of all plays): Hill, Kamara, Thomas, Olave, Shaheed. Only seven packages have been used at least 10 times, and all of those packages feature our top three WR's.

With so many different packages, it would be hard for defenses to key on any without overwhelming the players. However, if you remember, I said all of our top packages feature Thomas, Olave, and Shaheed. Do we have a tendency with those three guys out there?

The answer is yes--we pass 83% of the time when they are on the field together. When we have 3+ WR on the field and one of them isn't the big three, we pass only 45% of the time. Pretty balanced by comparison.

Despite the giveaway with our big three, we still average 5.8 yds/DB when they are all on the field at the same time versus 6.2 yds/DB when at least one is missing. Where we actually gain a slight edge is in the run game, probably due to surprise. We average 4.1 yds/rush when the big three is out there, and 3.6 yds/rush when they are not.

Still not as good as the Bowden edge, where we get 4.3 yds/rush when he is on the field.

---

ON TO THE BEARS

Sorry for the block of words there, I'll try to keep this one short and to the point.



The offensive stats are for the last three games, defensive stats are for the season. The Bears definitely lean on the run to help their young QB, and they've done it well. They've averaged 4.2 yds/att and have scored five rushing TD's in the last three games. Even with all that rushing success, they don't test the defense vertically too often, but when they do it's on early downs.

Here are their down/distance tendencies for the last three games:



They have played really well on 1st down, driven by a 69% success rate when passing. They also play very well whenever they have that successful first down and really poorly otherwise, so step one is to figure out how to stop their early down passing game.

One thing to consider is that Bagent has thrown 32 passes on first down, and 12 have been behind the LOS. The key is stopping YAC on those plays, because the Bears have averaged 9.9 YAC/completion on those throws, with a 67% success rate per attempt. We need our guys to make tackles and force those 2nd/3rd and long situations.

Otherwise, we just need to play good pass defense, with Bagent targeting his WR's and TE's on the other 19/20 attempts. On those passes, he is 17/19 for 198 yards and an interception.

That's it for this week, thanks to all for reading. Looking forward to another Saints win this Sunday. WHO DAT!

So another area of improvement, to lean into that run identity, would be getting down to at least 65-70 percent with the big three on the field and build on that surprise element/slight edge.