Analysis AMA: Post-Cowboy's Game (1 Viewer)

Hey Dan. Any weaknesses, or places to improve, in the offense so far through two games? I don't expect to score 40 every week. Once teams start to have tape on the new (to us) system, I imagine things will settle somewhere, but I'm just not sure where that is.

Also, how has Chase Young performed so far? What's his ceiling this year? Double digit sacks?
 
I always hear that opposing teams study game film and learn how to stop the other team
Watching the first two games l have no idea what we are doing to do despite the personal on field, is it me or are we showing tendencies on film that will help other teams to slow us down?
EDIT, last season l could tell what we were trying to do on at least half of our plays
 
Hey Dan. Any weaknesses, or places to improve, in the offense so far through two games? I don't expect to score 40 every week. Once teams start to have tape on the new (to us) system, I imagine things will settle somewhere, but I'm just not sure where that is.

Also, how has Chase Young performed so far? What's his ceiling this year? Double digit sacks?
Right now the guys look really confident in what they're being asked to do on offense and it makes a huge difference. If you're wondering how everyone looks so improved across the board, that's why--that clarity of purpose. I have wanted to write an article on this for a while but haven't found the time (and no one has directly asked about it in an AMA so I keep forgetting), but I will touch on it now.

The thing about Payton's offense was it evolved for a decade and a half around Drew Brees. Think about the on-field operations. Break the huddle quickly, get to the line, hard count, and Brees either changes the play or dishes out a hot route and they snap the ball with the play clock almost at 0. This also ties into the perceived "lack of motion" and shifts--Brees' on field operations served a similar purpose, forcing the defense to show it's hand. He could then exploit a matchup or a spacing issue.

Brees' success created the myth that this offense was quarterback-friendly. It wasn't. It was Brees friendly. Just like you couldn't plug anyone in to Peyton Manning's offense, you couldn't do it here. And it was all Carmichael knew. So you had this offense that relied heavily on matchups and on-field operations, was a west-coast, low protection-type of system, and while Carr and the other guys started to grasp it later in the year, the slow starts were inevitable.

I'm getting back to your original question, I swear :).

What you have with Kubiak's system--and the words SYSTEM should be in bold capitals--is something that takes, for lack of a better term, a more systematic approach. It's of that Alex Gibbs zone tradition in the running game, and it relies less on isolation and matchups and on-field operations and more on "we are going to do these very specific things as an offense, and you, as a defense, must figure out ways to stop them without leaving room for the built-in answers we have."

The only way to beat the zone running game is with numbers and penetration. One way to match numbers is backside pursuit (that end playing spill/chase and running the back down), but that opens up the bootleg. You want to slide down a safety as a free hitter? Cool, we'll max pro and get you with crossing routes.

These are really simple examples and the truth is the devil is in the details. This isn't just a great job by Kubiak (though he deserves a ton of credit). This is a testament to GREAT positional coaching. These guys aren't just doing the right drills, but they're having very detailed meetings and are understanding exactly what they're supposed to do--then how and why of it all--and that dramatically boosts buy-in from the players.

So, yes, things will get tough, games will get closer. But as we saw with the Saints in 2009 this level of efficiency, combined with complimentary football from an opportunistic offense, is difficult to stop. And that goes back to buy-in too. Even when games get close or low-scoring, you will less frustration and better focus and leadership than we saw in the past couple of years.

ALL THAT TO SAY--yes, I still see issues. Penning is playing great and I am sure they're preparing him very well for what he'll face each week and he's gaining confidence. But how does he fare when something he didn't expect finally gets thrown his way? How will the team handle injuries to more important players (this could've been a very different game if Fuaga couldn't go)? I like the depth they've built, especially at the skilled positions--Tipton exists on this roster explicitly in case something happens to Rashid Shaheed. There's great situaitonal play coming from the defense.

But this is the NFL. Things will get tougher--that much is guaranteed.

As for Chase Young--the sky is the limit. I don't know exactly how many sacks he'll get, but he's so disruptive that his production may be even more reflected in how many sacks everyone else on the DL gets.
 
I always hear that opposing teams study game film and learn how to stop the other team
Watching the first two games l have no idea what we are doing to do despite the personal on field, is it me or are we showing tendencies on film that will help other teams to slow us down?
EDIT, last season l could tell what we were trying to do on at least half of our plays

Teams will definitely gain some ground on the offense as the season gets on and more film is out there. But I'll say this much--the sheer offensive efficiency of the past 2 games should slow the pace at which the rest of the league catches up.

What I mean by that is this: The Saints scored TDs on every drive in the first half. Every drive looked like an opening script. 7 plays TD. 1 play TD. 9 plays, TD. Efficiency.

Yes there was some window dressing here and there and a couple of tendencies shown, but when you're that efficient on offense, your self-scouting load following the game is much lower. You've shown less. You haven't had to pull out your sneaky stuff.

Nothing the Saints have done these first two weeks has been crazy. There were no Andy Reid return motions or sneaky shovel passes or G/H counter bluff reverses. It's all just pure, solid execution combined with some very sound situational play-calling.

These deep posts to Shaheed aren't trick plays. They're clean protection, great routes (it's a post route, it's not fancy... Shaheed just knows exactly where to stem and then angle the break vs. different coverages), dimes from Carr, and just SPEED. To be honest--that is way harder to stop than any orbit motion shovel RPO reverse etc. etc.

Defenses will come up with answers. But truly, honestly--the Saints have NOT put that much on film. They're just running their base offense and beating the snot out of whichever defense is in front of them.
 
Right now the guys look really confident in what they're being asked to do on offense and it makes a huge difference. If you're wondering how everyone looks so improved across the board, that's why--that clarity of purpose. I have wanted to write an article on this for a while but haven't found the time (and no one has directly asked about it in an AMA so I keep forgetting), but I will touch on it now.

The thing about Payton's offense was it evolved for a decade and a half around Drew Brees. Think about the on-field operations. Break the huddle quickly, get to the line, hard count, and Brees either changes the play or dishes out a hot route and they snap the ball with the play clock almost at 0. This also ties into the perceived "lack of motion" and shifts--Brees' on field operations served a similar purpose, forcing the defense to show it's hand. He could then exploit a matchup or a spacing issue.

Brees' success created the myth that this offense was quarterback-friendly. It wasn't. It was Brees friendly. Just like you couldn't plug anyone in to Peyton Manning's offense, you couldn't do it here. And it was all Carmichael knew. So you had this offense that relied heavily on matchups and on-field operations, was a west-coast, low protection-type of system, and while Carr and the other guys started to grasp it later in the year, the slow starts were inevitable.

I'm getting back to your original question, I swear :).

What you have with Kubiak's system--and the words SYSTEM should be in bold capitals--is something that takes, for lack of a better term, a more systematic approach. It's of that Alex Gibbs zone tradition in the running game, and it relies less on isolation and matchups and on-field operations and more on "we are going to do these very specific things as an offense, and you, as a defense, must figure out ways to stop them without leaving room for the built-in answers we have."

The only way to beat the zone running game is with numbers and penetration. One way to match numbers is backside pursuit (that end playing spill/chase and running the back down), but that opens up the bootleg. You want to slide down a safety as a free hitter? Cool, we'll max pro and get you with crossing routes.

These are really simple examples and the truth is the devil is in the details. This isn't just a great job by Kubiak (though he deserves a ton of credit). This is a testament to GREAT positional coaching. These guys aren't just doing the right drills, but they're having very detailed meetings and are understanding exactly what they're supposed to do--then how and why of it all--and that dramatically boosts buy-in from the players.

So, yes, things will get tough, games will get closer. But as we saw with the Saints in 2009 this level of efficiency, combined with complimentary football from an opportunistic offense, is difficult to stop. And that goes back to buy-in too. Even when games get close or low-scoring, you will less frustration and better focus and leadership than we saw in the past couple of years.

ALL THAT TO SAY--yes, I still see issues. Penning is playing great and I am sure they're preparing him very well for what he'll face each week and he's gaining confidence. But how does he fare when something he didn't expect finally gets thrown his way? How will the team handle injuries to more important players (this could've been a very different game if Fuaga couldn't go)? I like the depth they've built, especially at the skilled positions--Tipton exists on this roster explicitly in case something happens to Rashid Shaheed. There's great situaitonal play coming from the defense.

But this is the NFL. Things will get tougher--that much is guaranteed.

As for Chase Young--the sky is the limit. I don't know exactly how many sacks he'll get, but he's so disruptive that his production may be even more reflected in how many sacks everyone else on the DL gets.
As great, fantastic, phenomenal, etc. as Brees was....Can you imagine him in this offensive system with the O-lines he had?
 
Zone blocking- I want to say many years ago SP brought in Alex Gibbs ( i think as "oline consulting" ) and i really thought we were moving toward that zone blocking , backside run type offense but it never really took hold.
So what is making THIS iteration better? More athletic oline?
 
It's all just pure, solid execution combined with some very sound situational play-calling.
That's what has blown me away, our execution has been outstanding. There isn't a ton of trickery going on, we seem to be just running our base offense and the defenses we've faced so far have had zero answers. Kubiak/Carr haven't been in a position yet where we need to pull something out of a hat to get us back in a game, we're leaving opponents in the dust from the first drive onward.

Our defense has also significantly improved against the run year over year. What's your take on how we went from one of the worst run defenses to one that has only allowed 3.1 yards/att to opposing running backs?
 
If you told me the Saints were 25 points better than the Cowboys at the beginning of the season, I would have said you were crazy. The execution of the offense and to also take Micah Parson's out of the game was good coaching. You can tell the players have bought into Kubiak's system. The defense has a swagger and the players are not afraid to tackle or hit someone. This not the same team as we have seen since Drew retired.

Question: Can Olave and Shaheed continue to carry the load for the receivers since A.T. Perry is a healthy scratch and is non-effective this year? Is McKinistry the new replacement for Latimore?
 
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Zone blocking- I want to say many years ago SP brought in Alex Gibbs ( i think as "oline consulting" ) and i really thought we were moving toward that zone blocking , backside run type offense but it never really took hold.
So what is making THIS iteration better? More athletic oline?
Because as Dan says, it's a system, not a part of something else. In order to implement it properly you have to commit to it and it has to be core to your offense and your offense bends to it, not the other way around.

So when Payton brings in a/the guru consultant for a bit, that's just for adding a bit to his offense, not changing the core of his offense.

In culinary terms, if this Shanahan offense is a steak seasoned with salt and pepper, what Payton did was add a bit of salt and pepper to his Tilapia.
 
Teams will definitely gain some ground on the offense as the season gets on and more film is out there. But I'll say this much--the sheer offensive efficiency of the past 2 games should slow the pace at which the rest of the league catches up.

What I mean by that is this: The Saints scored TDs on every drive in the first half. Every drive looked like an opening script. 7 plays TD. 1 play TD. 9 plays, TD. Efficiency.

Yes there was some window dressing here and there and a couple of tendencies shown, but when you're that efficient on offense, your self-scouting load following the game is much lower. You've shown less. You haven't had to pull out your sneaky stuff.

Nothing the Saints have done these first two weeks has been crazy. There were no Andy Reid return motions or sneaky shovel passes or G/H counter bluff reverses. It's all just pure, solid execution combined with some very sound situational play-calling.

These deep posts to Shaheed aren't trick plays. They're clean protection, great routes (it's a post route, it's not fancy... Shaheed just knows exactly where to stem and then angle the break vs. different coverages), dimes from Carr, and just SPEED. To be honest--that is way harder to stop than any orbit motion shovel RPO reverse etc. etc.

Defenses will come up with answers. But truly, honestly--the Saints have NOT put that much on film. They're just running their base offense and beating the snot out of whichever defense is in front of them.
This has really jumped out to me as well. They aren't doing anything earth shattering out there. This isn't some gimmick offense. The motions/formations look fancy to us because we haven't seen it but the plays are super basic. The execution has been unreal.

You don't have to put much on film when you can run right, run left, and hit play action at will.

When Kubiack does reach into his bag of tricks, what can we expect? I'm sure he has a few bangers drawn up for Taysom.
 
Zone blocking- I want to say many years ago SP brought in Alex Gibbs ( i think as "oline consulting" ) and i really thought we were moving toward that zone blocking , backside run type offense but it never really took hold.
So what is making THIS iteration better? More athletic oline?
Every single team in the NFL has inside and outside zone in their playbook. It's not something extremely unique as a concept.

What made Gibbs version different was the details--the way he coached the line--and the way they used their 21 and 12 personnel looks (FBs and TEs). The "wide zone" that he gets credited with is also not something super unique, but again, the way he coached it (for example, the use of cutting on the backside and second level) is what made it unique. The years the Broncos seemed to be able to plug in any RB and they'd run for 1000 yards were in large part due to Gibbs' version of the zone running game and the massive cutback lanes it creates.

It fit into Shannahan's system (and his tree) because of how it paired up with the play-action passing game and the bootlegs and the screens. But again... literally every team has some version of this. No one is reinventing the wheel from a concept level.

Gibbs was a position coach, and it's the position coaches that make any system work. What Kubiak is doing isn't radical play design, it's good coaching by him and the coaches under him. It's attention to detail. It's accountability. It's, rather than asking each player to just beat the man in front of them, it's telling them to do their job, the way they are being taught, and trust that they will win--and defining what "winning" means.

Maybe Shaheed doesn't get open on the post, but he opens up Olave on the over route. Maybe Penning doesn't get the end reached, but the guard washes the LB and a cutback lane opens on the outside zone. Instead of it being "you're gonna have to beat everyone 1 on 1" it's just "hey, do your job, and if the defense overplays you then it's gonna let us win somewhere else."

Again, it all comes down to coaching which is involves a lot more than play-calling and design (thought that is also important).

Ultimately the Saints are executing really well on the details--and those little details add up to some very big plays.
 
That's what has blown me away, our execution has been outstanding. There isn't a ton of trickery going on, we seem to be just running our base offense and the defenses we've faced so far have had zero answers. Kubiak/Carr haven't been in a position yet where we need to pull something out of a hat to get us back in a game, we're leaving opponents in the dust from the first drive onward.

Our defense has also significantly improved against the run year over year. What's your take on how we went from one of the worst run defenses to one that has only allowed 3.1 yards/att to opposing running backs?
What I see from the defense is that they aren't pressing, and when the opposing offense does make a big play, they stay composed. The Cowboys game, especially in the first, really came down to the Saints' offense scoring TDs and their defense holding Dallas to field goals. On the one touchdown that was a great route by Lamb (he got Adebo stacked, leaned into him, and then speed cut the out) and Mathieu just took a bad angle (was trying to play the ball and he should have just gone for the hit.... like he did later in the game).

I love what I'm seeing from an individual level too. Kool-aid played really well--far better than I expected. Adebo is earning himself a massive payday (he's been playing pro-bowl ball for a couple years now). Taylor is embracing the slot role and we finally have a nickel that looks like CJ Gardner-Johnson out there. The DL is disruptive and Demario is ageless and while I do think the defense can be a little leaky at times they are playing with a ton of swagger and complementing the offense really well.

Again, I'm not trying to get too excited, but these are 2009 vibes. I love the way the entire team is playing.
 

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