Perhaps we'll see fewer two-RB sets (per Football Outsiders) (1 Viewer)

[IsraeliSaintsFan]

In an article on 2018 Offensive Personnel Analysis, Football Outsiders claims that the Saints offense plays much better with three WRs on the field, and that they suffered, especially in the running game, when both Kamara and Ingram were on the field together. While they admit this is true for most teams, they specifically called out the Saints for running the two-RB set too frequently. Interesting.

Quoting for your convenience:

"Then you have the Saints, who, for the second year in a row, ranked near the top in 11-personnel DVOA, and near the bottom in 11-personnel usage. They have consistently been a better offense with three wideouts on the field, but they really throttled back on those sets starting in 2017 -- or, to put it another way, just as Alvin Kamarashowed up. In 2017, the Saints DVOA split between 11 and 12 personnel was nominal, less than two percent, with 21 personnel less than ten percent behind that. While subbing in that extra tight end or running back made the Saints less efficient, it wasn't by much. Last season, however, the DVOA gaps widened, and now we have something to talk about.

Saints Personnel Usage​
Personnel	Frequency	DVOA	Pass%	Pass DVOA	Run DVOA
11	54.5%	28.5%	64.1%	38.9%	12.5%
12	16.1%	15.0%	55.0%	35.4%	-7.8%
21	13.1%	-1.2%	44.6%	0.3%	-2.4%

Most of the difference between the Saints' three-wide and two-tight end sets are just how often they choose to run out of each. They're about equally good at passing out of both formations, but much better at running without the extra tight end on the field. This is not a Saints-only problem; the league had a DVOA of 3.9% while running out of 11 and a -13.3% DVOA running out of anything else. Bringing extra bodies onto the field not only telegraphs a run, but clogs up running lanes. But the Saints' struggles with both Kamara and Mark Ingram on the field are real; they were lagging behind in 2017 and were much worse last season. With Ingram out and Latavius Murray in, perhaps we'll see fewer situations where both Saints running backs hit the field simultaneously."

 

[AARPSaint]

Can't imagine the Saints running a lot of plays with both Kamara and Murray in the game.

 

[Tapxe]

I'm no coach, but I'd think if you become too predictable then they'll shutdown what works.

 

[WxM]

I'm no coach, but I'd think if you become too predictable then they'll shutdown what works.

Yup. Sometimes you have to run the less efficient, less effective stuff in order to set up what does work.

That being said, it's still reasonable to expect Kamara's work load to go up a bit, meaning fewer two back sets.

 

[State Of Affairs]

Yup. Sometimes you have to run the less efficient, less effective stuff in order to set up what does work.

That being said, it's still reasonable to expect Kamara's work load to go up a bit, meaning fewer two back sets.

There are so many factors to this that you can’t really look at those numbers.

As you said, some things are to set up others, Sometime you just want to play bully ball and ram it down their throats which pays off later in the game or maybe you got up by 24 point with 11 personnel and now you’re in the 4th and just want to run the clock, most of us realize you don’t wana just keep throwing the ball, not to mention, in this situation, the defense knows you’re running the ball and lastly, 3rd and short and goal line, you can’t really be very productive when you just need a single yard.