Saints have a very good chance to win Super Bowl next season (1 Viewer)

[bclemms]

Since 1985, the Super Bowl has been won by a team with a Hall of Fame caliber QB 21 out of 27 seasons.

Of the 7 teams that won the Super Bowl and didn't have a hall of fame QB, 4 of them had the #1 ranked defense in the league and a strong running game. The other QB's were guys like Mark Rypien, Jim McMahan, Ben Roethlisburger, Trent Dilfer and the infamous Doug Williams. Roethlisburger has a partial resume of a hall of fame QB but for now I can't possibly put him into that category.

So, in 27 NFL seasons with an average of 30 teams each season three total teams have won a Super Bowl without a Hall of Fame QB or the #1 overall defense in the league. Lets say there has been an average of 4 teams with a hall of fame QB each season and one team ultimately has the #1 defense each season. This leaves 25 teams each season for 27 seasons. This means 3 teams in 665 attempts have won the Super Bowl since 1985 putting the odds at a stagering 1:225.

Since 1985, 4 teams have won the Super Bowl with the #1 ranked defense in 27 seasons. So it basically gives the team with the #1 overall defense in the NFL about a 1:7 chance of winning the Super Bowl. However, there are other factors at work here. The 1985 Bears and the 2000 Ravens were historically good defenses. The two Steeler teams that won the Super Bowl had both a very good defense, a good QB and a good running game. So having the #1 defense and nothing to go with it has really only worked out twice in 27 seasons with defenses that are well known by simply a year in front of the team's name.

Now, since 1985 there have been some seasons with a larger amount of Hall of fame QB's playing at one time than others but for simplicity let's say there are 5 on any given season. 21 times a Hall of Fame caliber QB has led his team to victory in 27 seasons. This equates to 21 times out of 135 chances, or 1:5.

If you throw coaching, defense, special teams and everything else out the window; if you have a Hall of Fame QB, you not only have a chance but you have a very good chance.

Despite Goodell's punishments handed down yesterday, we still have a better statistical shot at a Super Bowl win this season than about 27 other teams.

 

[Saint Kamara]

Saints will still have the most prolific offense in the NFL in 2012.

The defense will be improved with Spagnuolo as DC.

You do the math.

For a team that was a defensive stop from winning a Super Bowl, this improved team will definitely win it.

Goodell, have fun handing us the Lombardi. It's gonna kill you, but you have no choice.

 

[wizard1183]

While I envy your concept, I have to say there's other QBs out there that are in the hunt this yr. One that comes to mind will be Manning in Denver. He's only got 1 SB but he's def a HOF QB. His baby bro Eli is not a top teir QB by any means. Just because he's got 2 rings doesnt make him great. His TEAM is what got him there. Specifically his Defense. Not to mention in the 2nd half of the season he ALWAYS seems to WAKE UP and make a run for it. In the SB, He made 1 or 2 passes that put him on top. I'd think you'd HAVE TO BE a fool if you chose Eli over Drew as your QB though.

 

[bclemms]

While I envy your concept, I have to say there's other QBs out there that are in the hunt this yr. One that comes to mind will be Manning in Denver. He's only got 1 SB but he's def a HOF QB. His baby bro Eli is not a top teir QB by any means. Just because he's got 2 rings doesnt make him great. His TEAM is what got him there. Specifically his Defense. Not to mention in the 2nd half of the season he ALWAYS seems to WAKE UP and make a run for it. In the SB, He made 1 or 2 passes that put him on top. I'd think you'd HAVE TO BE a fool if you chose Eli over Drew as your QB though.

I didn't say the Saints would win the Super Bowl because of this, just saying the statistics say the Saints have as good of a chance as any.

4 teams in the same boat as the Saints, statistically speaking:
Denver, Green Bay, New England and New York.

These teams also have some pretty big question marks, New England less than others. Denver, how are they going to do with Manning in his first season back? New York, can they parlay their 2nd half success into a new season? Green Bay, which Aaron Rodgers will show up, the one we saw in the last few games and playoffs or the one we saw the first 12 games?

 

[bkmowad]

while it does appear that our offense will should be prolific under PCJ and the defense should improve under Spags, i'm not sure those two add directly to winning football games.

Football in the NFL is alot about motivation, and sean payton was a master motivator, whoever takes his place (my money in on PCJ) will need to figure out this part of the puzzle, so all the pieces can come together.

i actually think PCJ will do a good job, the question is can he do a great job?

 

[Broad St. Saint]

Saints are 14-1 right now to win the SB according to Ladbrokes and William Hill.

Trailing only the Packers, Pats and Texans.

Those odds could grow longer if the player suspensions are worse than currently expected, or they could shorten if the suspensions are better than expected.

I'd guess that those odds would also improve if Brees signs an extension, or would worsen if the Saints trade Brees to the Jets for Sanchez, Tebow and picks, a scenario that the NFL, its northeast bias, and the NYC media would love.

 

[Goats]

The Saints might make the playoffs, but do you think fro one second Goodell would allow them to make it to the Superbowl? Not a chance. Expect some very questionable calls in the playoffs.