The Stat About The Saints Never Drafting A First Round QB (1 Viewer)

[Saint Jack]

I’ve heard this stat thrown out in relation to the Saints possibly drafting a first round QB, but I think it’s a bit misleading.
Archie, Herbert, Brooks, and Brees take up more than thirty five years of the franchise.
The only lull was the end of Mora and the Ditka era.

 

[Taker597]

They only drafted 1 QB in the 1st two rounds since the franchise existence which is a league lowest.

They haven't draft a QB in the 1st two rounds since 1971. Which is also... League lowest.

It's pretty valid.

 

[Big_L]

Well, it could of been 3 if Payton didn't tell Reid his plan . . .

 

[Saint Jack]

They only drafted 1 QB in the 1st two rounds since the franchise existence which is a league lowest.

They haven't draft a QB in the 1st two rounds since 1971. Which is also... League lowest.

It's pretty valid.

But the stat implies that the franchise just constantly goes into a spiral of constantly signing FA QBs that don’t work.
Archie was drafted. Lasted 11 years.
Hebert came from the USL. 7 seasons.
Brooks came to NOLA from a trade. Lasted 5 seasons.
Obviously Brees lasted 15 seasons.
Carr was a FA bust that will soon be gone.

 

[BoNcHiE]

Well, we should have drafted a 1st round QB during the Brooks, Herbert years.

 

[OutlawSaint]

We did not draft Brooks, Hebert, or Brees so their years don't even count towards that stat of drafting a 1st round QB

 

[slowhandsaints]

If the Saints are drafting 8 to 12 in the first round of next year‘s draft, surely they will not pass on a quarterback. Even if there’s a highly rated offensive or defensive lineman, if DA is here or not, you take a quarterback, set them for a year, let them get some work in in the preseason and maybe some spot duty during the season. He can work on quarterback, IQ building muscle and then by year two when it is easier to move on from Carr.

 

[Doug B]

Dave Wilson cost the Saints a 1982 first-round pick (#3 overall) because he was taken during the NFL's Supplemental Draft in July 1981. Wilson was a prolific record-setting passer at Illinois, so the risk was reasonable at the time.

EDIT: Keeping that #3 overall pick wouldn't have made much difference -- 1982 was a terrible year for quarterbacks in the draft. The only QB taken in that draft to ever make a Pro Bowl or start a playoff game was Jim McMahon.

 

[SystemShock]

But the stat implies that the franchise just constantly goes into a spiral of constantly signing FA QBs that don’t work.

I don't think the stat itself implies that, although it begs a deep dive of the years between Archie and Drew. Between Archie (1981) and Drew (2006), it is a very valid argument, I think.

Between Archie and Hebert (5 seasons), the Saints had a washed up Ken Stabler, Richard Todd from the Jets, and Dave Wilson (who was drafted in the 1st round, but the 1st round of the supplemental draft in 1981). They certainly could've taken someone then.

Hebert lasted 7 seasons, but frankly, the Saints could've done better than Bobby.

Between Hebert (1992) and Brooks (mid-2000), the Saints played a series of washed up/rethread/bad QBs, : Walsh, Everett, Wilson, Shuler, Tolliver, Hobert (I'll give them points for signing Blake)... the only QB they drafted in that period was Marc Bulger in the 6th round in 2000, who went onto have some success with the Rams after being released by the Saints that very same year, and who lasted longer in the league as a starter that both Brooks and Blake after being picked up by the Saints.

For an additional touch of misery to this post, here is the list of QB's the Saints drafted between Archie and Drew:

2002 6 J.T. O'Sullivan
1990 8 Gerry Gdowski
1997 4 Danny Wuerffel
1994 4 Doug Nussmeier
1990 6 Mike Buck
1988 10 Todd Santos

The highest QBs drafted all time were Archie (1st) and Garret Grayson (3rd).

Y'all reading this may need some:

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

We did not draft Brooks, Hebert, or Brees so their years don't even count towards that stat of drafting a 1st round QB

i think the idea is 'why draft a QB in rd 1 if you already have a starting QB'?
and it's a sound(ish) question

 

[IceHot]

Just a small side stat note - on the significance.


39 of the 57 SB Winning Teams had a starting QB drafted by the team they won with. 32 of the Team QBs* were drafted in the 1st round (not necessarily at the top of the round).
*note: For stat purposes I chose the QB who played the most games in season not necessarily the SB Starting QB, thus Schroeder over Williams. In a tie situation I factored in the post season, thus Dilfer not Banks. Also I counted it as a home team draft if it was a draft and trade/acquire situation. Thus Elways was counted as a home team draft pick even though drafted by the Colts. The 15 Broncos count Manning as a Hired Gun QB for their SB victory.

To me, it seems rather significant though not critical.

 

[SaintsMan209]

I don't believe the narrative that Payton told Andy Reid.

Payton is all talk. If he wanted Mahomes and really thought he was as good as he was saying then he should have bet 2 or 3 first round picks and done whatever it took to get him. Payton lies so much he lies to himself. How could Payton say Mahomes was the highest quarterback he's ever graded but not give up 2/3 first rounders to get him? Who is this guy kidding and what do we buy Sean Payton's lies. The guy won 1 Super Bowl with arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time who was entirely committed.

 

[saintmdterps]

But the stat implies that the franchise just constantly goes into a spiral of constantly signing FA QBs that don’t work.
Archie was drafted. Lasted 11 years.
Hebert came from the USL. 7 seasons.
Brooks came to NOLA from a trade. Lasted 5 seasons.
Obviously Brees lasted 15 seasons.
Carr was a FA bust that will soon be gone.

Add Heath Shuler and the Billy Joes

 

[longtime lurker]

This is the year to do it and fingers crossed it’s with a new HC.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Just a small side stat note - on the significance.


39 of the 57 SB Winning Teams had a starting QB drafted by the team they won with. 32 of the Team QBs* were drafted in the 1st round (not necessarily at the top of the round).
*note: For stat purposes I chose the QB who played the most games in season not necessarily the SB Starting QB, thus Schroeder over Williams. In a tie situation I factored in the post season, thus Dilfer not Banks. Also I counted it as a home team draft if it was a draft and trade/acquire situation. Thus Elways was counted as a home team draft pick even though drafted by the Colts. The 15 Broncos count Manning as a Hired Gun QB for their SB victory.

To me, it seems rather significant though not critical.

a few things - first i think charting playoff teams (or even teams with .600+ winning %) might be a statistically more useful data group - it seems like making the playoffs is more an indicator (on average) of having a good QB, whereas the SB itself is too impacted by D or special teams or (un)lucky bounces to put too much weight into QB

but even then for the theory to be useful for anything, you'd have to weight all the teams who drafted QBs in rd 1 and did not find success - that's a much much much bigger number