The Uncertain Future of Pervez Musharraf (1 Viewer)

[dapperdan]

It is interesting that this issue is being raised. Finally a few people are noticing the deterioration that is occuring in Pakistan.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/05/the_uncertain_future_of_pervez.html

May 28, 2007
The Uncertain Future of Pervez Musharraf
By Ian Bremmer

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has dodged a lot of bullets over the years. He's survived multiple assassination attempts, managed intense U.S. pressure to drive jihadis from the country's northwest frontier no-man's land, and weathered domestic charges that he is a dictator and American puppet.

Some of his old allies have abandoned him; two former prime ministers have demanded his resignation; and his bid to sack Pakistan's chief justice has provoked outrage, deadly violence and the first large-scale public protests of his nearly eight-year rule.

In short, he's already used up most of his nine lives.

 

[baarbogast]

I would hate to be in that region. I'm not sure if there is truly anyone we can call an ally in Pakistan. It seems they play both sides of the fence so they can keep living.

 

[CAVALIER]

If radical islam prevails in Pakistan it will be an Islamist regime with nuclear weapons....

 

[watts]

I'm amazed he and his regime has survived this long.

WHile fundamental Islam is alive and well, especially in the lawless, tribal regions, I've always thought of them as very vocal minority.

Pakistan has actually made some inroads into the acceptance of Western business over the past five years. They have seen the explosive growth of neighbor, and long time foe, India and have opened to the idea of Western investment. Clearly, the infrastructure and political climate make it nearly impossible to do any sort of meaningful exchange but they are at least making some overt efforts.

As for the nukes, I would be very surprised if they found there way into the hands of fundamentalist. The military would, in my mind, never release these and again, outside the tribal regions, the major cities don't appear to be very receptive to this brand if Islam.

My guess is that one of three things happen:

1) He is assasinated before the election and one of this commanders take control, postpones any election and the status quo continues.

2) As the article mentions, he reshuffles the deck and wins a, shall we say, 'contested' popular election.

3) He runs, loses and realizes that he got out with the one thing that matters most - his life and sits on the sidelines for a few years like Bhuto.