- Joined
- Nov 28, 2007
- Messages
- 22,245
- Reaction score
- 50,870
Online
Using the draft Tek Chart, specifically the Rich Hill model explained here ( https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill) how would you maneuver getting to the #1 pick from the Titans
If you don't click the link, there's a mention of how future draft picks are calculated. A 2026 1st would be worth the value/points of a 2025 2nd round pick, a 2026 2nd is a 2025 3rd and so forth. Extending that model out can we agree a 2027 1st round pick would be equal to a 2025 3rd rounder?
The pick values are below and the Titans #1 pick is worth 1000. You can include players, value them based on what you'd ask for in the 2025 draft. I'll be valuing Chris Olave somewhere between late 1st and a mid 2nd rounder.
1(9) - 387
2(40) - 149
3 (71) - 68
3 (93) - 42
4 (111) - 29
4(130) - 18
6 (207) - 4
7 (254) - 1
I offered a 2025 1st 2nd and 3rd and 2026 1st and 2nd worth 821 points. I valued Olave to Titans 2nd round pick worth 170 to push it to 991. Hopefuly Borgonzi humors me and doesn't go scorched earth for the other 9 points right lol?
Imagining this from the Saints perspective, 2027 would be an ideal target for at least a league average cap. In theory restructuring Carr doesn't destroy the teams future since 2027's cap space should be large enough to absorb the dead money hit. Having your potential #1 and #2 QB's on rookie contracts adds to the flexibility. Barring any 2026 trades you'd also have all your 2027 picks.
You either have a QB you can win because of, or you're looking for one.
Loomis placed Carr firmly in the win with category. Rattler, while his circumstances were unfavorable, ulitmately missed his win because of moment in the 20-19 loss vs Washington.
During Wards college journey he's shown at that level he's a QB you win because of.
Will that translate to the NFL?
Time will tell, but if you have a top 10 pick for the 1st time in the last 19 years and hopefully the last for another 19, you should target (within the scope of Titans asking for reasonable compensation) a QB that you think displays because of traits.
Disclaimer: I would trade back for extra picks and focus on developing Rattler in Moore's system w/ an eye towards the 2026 QB class. That would admittedly be passive and lady luck shines on those who take chances.
If they took one on Ward it would be hard to be upset.