A look ahead to our 2020 and 2021 rosters [draft update pg 3] (1 Viewer)

[sammymvpknight]

I see the needs in this order for 2020:

QB, #2WR, OG, FB/RB, LS, CB

and don't see a big need for:

DT (We have a lot talent even David Onyemata leaves), TE (We can get buy with Cook and Hill, but one wouldn't hurt), S [CDGJ, PJ and Williams (would much rather Bell thou and hopefully we pick up another CB that can play both positions) can play safety], DE (Plenty of talent, just needs to produce).

My concern isn't so much 2020, it's 2021. Rankins is on the last year of his rookie contract and he can't stay healthy. He was underwhelming last year coming off of his achilles injury, which unfortunately can reduce the explosiveness of a player permanently. We are also losing a bunch of other DTs in 2021. The only guy we'll have at that point is Shy Tuttle.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Seniority sucks, unless you’re senior

I'm wouldn't bet on Davenport long-term. He's developed quite a nack for getting injured late in the season.

I'd like to see us try and find a real number two DE to pair with Jordan. Let Davenport platoon. Maybe trade for someone? IDK Robert Quinn, Shaq Lawson or Armstead from the 9ers. Both of KC's young DE are URF (Jones & Ogbah).

Lack of pass rush hurt us down the stretch. We can get away with a lot more on the backend with a better rush.

Agreed. Wouldn’t count on Anzalone or Rankins either. Love em but all hurt a lot.

Great post OP.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Now I see why Kamara is pouting around
RB #1- Alvin Kamara ($1.2m, $243k, +$900k) - through 2020
RB #2- Latavius Murray ($4m, $5.3, -$1.3m) – through 2022

And the way they played LM was worth way more than AK this past season. We’d still be playing had he been utilized more.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Also Dante Fowler Jr. is a free agent I believe. Could help us tremendously at the backer spot imo.

 

[sammymvpknight]

When you look at the difference between dead money and cap savings, here are the guys who the Saints would gain more than $1 million by cutting:

1) Janoris Jenkins- about $11.2 million gained by cutting
Is Janoris Jenkins a $10+ million CB? That's the first contract you have to address, because that a substantial savings if you don't think he's that guy.

2) Sheldon Rankins- about $7.6 million gained by cutting
Rankins is another big one. My gut is that the Saints will keep his 5th year option, but I honestly don't think that he has been worth $7.6 million up until this point. I'm doubtful if he ever will be...not a game changer and always hurt. But for the hope and prayer that he gets it put together, the Saints probably keep him.

3) Kiko Alonso- about $7 million gained by cutting
This is the easiest one on the list. There no chance the Saints keep Alonso at his current price, especially as he comes off of an ACL tear. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets restructured at a much lower price though, because he seemed to be a pretty good fit and the Saints need help at LB.

4) Larry Warford- about $4.1 million gained by cutting
I think that Warford stays. He's a good player when healthy.

5) Terron Armstead- about $3.6 million gained by cutting
Likewise, I think that Armstead is probably worth $3.6 million for the hope and prayer that he stays healthy. He's a game changer when he's in there. No chance the Saints cut him, but I suppose that they could trade him if they get a nice return.

6) Mario Edwards- about $2.3 million gained by cutting
Edwards played well this last year and provides nice depth at many DL positions. I think he stays, but if the Saints DL depth continues to progress (Granderson and Tuttle take steps forward), I suppose the Edwards can be a late cut.

7) Alvin Kamara- about $1.7 million gained by cutting
We give Kamara a hard time here, and much of it is deserved. The expectations are high, as they should be...he's one of the great players in the NFL...and his play was probably the most disappointing individual performance of the Saints 2019 season. There's no chance the Saints cut him, but I do think that a trade is very possible.

8) Patrick Robinson- about $1.2 million gained by cutting
Robinson played pretty well late in the season last year. If the Saints lose Bell and Apple, which is very possible, I'd be surprised if Robinson isn't retained at his current price. With Bell and Apple gone, CJGJ plays more safety and that would create a larger need at nickel, which is where Patrick Robinson fits well.

9) Craig Robinson- about $1.1 million gained by cutting
Robinson is as steady as they come. He is a special teams ace and his knowledge of the defense really helps. His skills are declining, but the Saints don't have much at LB, so I think there's a good chance he's back.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

When you look at the difference between dead money and cap savings, here are the guys who the Saints would gain more than $1 million by cutting:

1) Janoris Jenkins- about $11.2 million gained by cutting
Is Janoris Jenkins a $10+ million CB? That's the first contract you have to address, because that a substantial savings if you don't think he's that guy.

2) Sheldon Rankins- about $7.6 million gained by cutting
Rankins is another big one. My gut is that the Saints will keep his 5th year option, but I honestly don't think that he has been worth $7.6 million up until this point. I'm doubtful if he ever will be...not a game changer and always hurt. But for the hope and prayer that he gets it put together, the Saints probably keep him.

3) Kiko Alonso- about $7 million gained by cutting
This is the easiest one on the list. There no chance the Saints keep Alonso at his current price, especially as he comes off of an ACL tear. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets restructured at a much lower price though, because he seemed to be a pretty good fit and the Saints need help at LB.

4) Larry Warford- about $4.1 million gained by cutting
I think that Warford stays. He's a good player when healthy.

5) Terron Armstead- about $3.6 million gained by cutting
Likewise, I think that Armstead is probably worth $3.6 million for the hope and prayer that he stays healthy. He's a game changer when he's in there. No chance the Saints cut him, but I suppose that they could trade him if they get a nice return.

6) Mario Edwards- about $2.3 million gained by cutting
Edwards played well this last year and provides nice depth at many DL positions. I think he stays, but if the Saints DL depth continues to progress (Granderson and Tuttle take steps forward), I suppose the Edwards can be a late cut.

7) Alvin Kamara- about $1.7 million gained by cutting
We give Kamara a hard time here, and much of it is deserved. The expectations are high, as they should be...he's one of the great players in the NFL...and his play was probably the most disappointing individual performance of the Saints 2019 season. There's no chance the Saints cut him, but I do think that a trade is very possible.

8) Patrick Robinson- about $1.2 million gained by cutting
Robinson played pretty well late in the season last year. If the Saints lose Bell and Apple, which is very possible, I'd be surprised if Robinson isn't retained at his current price. With Bell and Apple gone, CJGJ plays more safety and that would create a larger need at nickel, which is where Patrick Robinson fits well.

9) Craig Robinson- about $1.1 million gained by cutting
Robinson is as steady as they come. He is a special teams ace and his knowledge of the defense really helps. His skills are declining, but the Saints don't have much at LB, so I think there's a good chance he's back.

Great post. Totally agree on Rankins. He reminds me of Sedrick Ellis. Lunch pail work hard guy that will try but won’t make any impact plays. Or very few.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Updated today with Brees, Hill, and Onyemata signings. I also updated PRob's and Alonso's restructures.

 

[Saint Spud]

Updated today with Brees, Hill, and Onyemata signings. I also updated PRob's and Alonso's restructures.

Good info. Thanks for this.

 

[saint_drago]

It's such a good point about this team not having any blatantly bad contracts holding them back. Not having much cap space because you're paying a bunch of talented guys is one thing, but not having any cap space because you gave all the money to Byrd and Fleener is another.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Numerous updates littered through the OP.

- Restructures of MT and TA
- Signings of Malcolm Jenkins and Andrus Peat
- First round options of Ramczyk and Lattimore for 2021
- In-house FA target updated
- Positional draft needs list updated

 

[sammymvpknight]

Updated:
- Sanders, Burton, Hardy contracts
- Positional draft needs edit

I’ll eventually get to an update on commentary

 

[sammymvpknight]

Updated draft picks and recent signing. Draft analysis to come.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Draft review

Positive:
- I can understand the Saints methodology, and it was very calculated.
- I like that they were able to trade low yield resources for higher yield resources.
- I thought that they got relative value with each selection.

Negatives:
- I have some concerns about the amount of movement on the OL.
- I have some concerns over the health of Zach Baun.
- It was difficult seeing the Saints not selecting a WR in this MONSTER of a WR draft.


Round 1. Caesar Ruiz

I considered the possibility of the Saints going interior OL with the first pick, but I felt that Ruiz was unlikely for a few reasons. I thought that LB was a much more significant need, so I had concerns with passing on Patrick Queen. But I was at least someone reassured in knowing that the Saints could have passed on Queen for Jordyn Brooks, which would have been disaster. More on this later.

First, Ruiz is a natural center, and McCoy was graded out as a top 5 center last year. I saw OG as a much more significant need, with concerns over a combination of Peat and Warford. But I didn't connect the dots, that McCoy could slide over to the RG position. I also think that I underappreciated McCoy's struggles with line adjustments, which could have fueled the guard struggles. So with a more detailed understanding of the Saints concerns over both Warford and McCoy, I can better appreciate the selection. Again, fit or ability was never a question with Ruiz. I suspect that he would be a great pro, I just questioned the need, which has at least been partially answered after the draft.

I still have some concerns about the OL. In order for the draft pick to pan out in 2020, it's going to be contigent on a few things falling into place. First, Ruiz has to be as advertised. He has to at least be as good as McCoy was last year (through a combination of his own personal play, and potentially better directing flow at the LOS). That's a difficult ask, as I said before, McCoy was a superb center last year. Next, McCoy must be able to at least be as good as Warford last season. Warford wasn't great last year, but I think that most would be lying if they felt he was worse than Peat. So, there really is no guarantee that McCoy is an improvement this year on Warford. And lastly, the OL has to be able to gel. There will now be two moving pieces, which has a significant effect on the rest of the line, especially considering that there will be a new "quarterback" of the OL in Ruiz. No substantial injury concerns I could find, which is nice.

Round 3.1. Zack Baun
My concern of passing on a LB in round 1 was alleviated by the selection of Zack Baun in round 3. I had Baun at my #4 LB prospect. In round three, he was easily the BPA and a guy who I though would have to be selected in the 1st round in order to acquire. I knew that the Saints would be in a tough situation without a 2nd round pick, because to move up into the early 2nd round without a current 2nd round would have very likely costed next year's 1st. I was completely against that, so it was a bit nerve wracking. But thank goodness Baun was able to slip to round 3 to allow a more reasonable trade-up.

I really like Baun's traits. He does many things well, which is something to build upon. I like his coverage ability and blitzing ability. He also seems to be a hard worker and intelligent. But he's not without risk, which is why he was my #4 LB. He looked much more comfortable at the LOS than he did in a traditional LB role. I couldn't find a ton of tape on him playing MLB, so it was difficult to get a gauge on his read/react from that position, and also his ability to shed blocks, which is pivotal up the middle. I also have come concerns over Baun's health. He lost a season in 2017 because of a Lisfranc injury. It's not enormous concern moving forward, like a prior ACL tear or repeated head injuries, but it's a consideration for future injury. Also, he had a diluted drug sample at the combine, which is certainly a bit of a red flag. Baun states that he was "shocked" by the diluted sample, and notes that he drank too much water before the combine. There have been some fans throwing out diabetes insipidus as a cause, I find that highly suspect. I'd be more concerned about prognosis with diabetes insipidus than him trying to mask a performance agent, or whatever. Regarding the "over drinking" theory, it takes quite a bit of water to dilute out your sample, especially considering that the NFL tests bright and early in the morning. It does at least raise some suspicions, which is exactly why it is triggered as a failed test.

Round 3.2. Adam Trautman

I identified inline TE as one of the Saints needs, but honestly didn't put as much time at the TE position than I do in some years. Overall, the TE class was lacking. But I completely understand the rationale of selecting Trautman. He looks like a fluid athlete who can play inside an out. He's also a very bright guy, which should help with his learning curve. When reviewing his perceived negatives by scouts, its all theoretical negatives..."he may not be able to bully opposing defenders in the NFL", "he is lacking polish", "technique is underdeveloped." Essentially, the negatives are lazy and spawn out of a difficult time sorting out his level of competition. But level of competition is routinely overrated...either you can dominate your opponent or not...and Trautman spent his college career dominating the competitions. The same concerns draftniks have for Trautman are the same hypotheticals that can be negatives for ANY TE. I was also fine with compensation. If the Saints felt that he was a difference maker who would likely make the team at a position of need, then I suppose that I rather have that than a bunch of late round guys who would be unlikely to compete for a roster spot. My only reservation is that this was a legendarily good WR class, and it's one that I think that most teams are going to regret not getting more than one WR from it. The Saints didn't draft anyone, which is a disappointment. But on the bright-side, they were able to get Marquez Callaway, who I really like. No considerable injury concerns, which is very nice.

Round 7. Tommy Stevens

Whether it's a 6th or 7th round, it's pretty much a dart throw. He's not Taysom HIll, but then again, I'm not sure the NFL has ever seen a Taysom Hill. As a developmental guy, and potentially a guy who can backup Taysom Hill without our offense having to make a significant scheme change...not a horrible decision. I don't love him as a passer, but whatever. He had an ankle injury from which he seems to have recovered, so nothing significant regarding injury.