NFL Draft Accuracy By Volume

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Yep. I agree we need more rolls of the dice to better our odds, but I also think in addition to taking more picks, we just need to get better at drafting. My suspicion is that the Browns, Panthers, Jets, Raiders, and Giants have likely made a lot of picks over the last 5 years (although the Browns traded many away for Watson and the Panthers traded a lot away for Young, so maybe not them) but they have little to show for it because of bad talent evaluation.

I think under Ireland we'v been more successful than not in drafting, more or less the player away draft is what makes us look worse. When we've given Ireland 4-5 picks in the top 100 we've hit at a higher rate but since 2017 we've only done that once or twice. At most we've had 3 picks in the top 100 if I'm not mistaken, so I agree w/ the premise of the thread.

Give Ireland more picks and he'll give you more talent.

 

[St. Widge]

Regardless of what % we hit on, its hard to argue that the lack of picks has led us to where we are with the quality of our depth. Other factors like extending dinosaurs and signing guys out of Touro doesnt help.

Im not saying you are wrong. No doubt we need to draft better. But we need to draft more because it seems easier to draft more and get more quality than to just say "draft better". I dont think we are making a choice to draft poorly. Either way we are drafting how we draft. More picks = more hits.

And I'm not saying you are wrong. We do need to make more picks and even that alone would improve the team by giving us better depth even if we continue to hit at the same percentage we hit at now. And yes, the lack of picks over the last 5 or so years has compounded the cap issues because we aren't drafting enough quality depth.

But, I do think we also need to upgrade the college scouting because our drafts picks have been mediocre since about 2017. They have hit on some, but even the hits haven't been even Pro-Bowl level players at this point.

 

[St. Widge]

I think under Ireland we'v been more successful than not in drafting, more or less the player away draft is what makes us look worse. When we've given Ireland 4-5 picks in the top 100 we've hit at a higher rate but since 2017 we've only done that once or twice. At most we've had 3 picks in the top 100 if I'm not mistaken, so I agree w/ the premise of the thread.

Give Ireland more picks and he'll give you more talent.

I think Ireland has a relatively low bust rate, but since 2017 he hasn't really hit on any Pro-Bowl level players or many guys outside of the top 3 rounds which is why I think his drafting has been mediocre.

But sure if he has more picks you will get more talent. I'm just saying we need more quality in addition to more quantity.

 

[St. Widge]

I hope Loomis has really changed his model. I will need 1 more draft/offseason to really buy that we are shifting gears. I thought the Lattimore trade was solid and it looks better every week.

Agree, 2026 is the best time for a full reset. The amount of Carr's salary restructured this offseason will tell us Mickey's plans. I think Loomis only restructures 20M of the 31M possible and leaves space for an out in 2026.

I don't think there is much choice how we handle Carr's restructure. Not really any other options for getting under the cap this year.

 

[B4YOU]

I don't think there is much choice how we handle Carr's restructure. Not really any other options for getting under the cap this year.

We are 64M over the cap. I think Loomis can PUP list Ram again for 16.5M space. Davis, Hill, HB, Granderson, McCoy gets us 28M. Foster, Warner, Shaheed are 6M. That covers about 50M in cap. Kicking 20M of Carr's money gives us 6M space for rookies.

That's before addressing Jordan's contract/decision, not touching Ruiz's 8M, and not resigning JJ or Young for cap savings.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

Coaches/GM's draft according to the strategy of their head coach. Sean Payton was a schemer who would scheme around an individual's capability. He did this very well offensively, which is Jimmy Graham became himself, Lance Moore, so on. He did this less so with defense which is why we spent so many high draft picks on defense.

Patriots Bill Belechik would draft in quantity and coach the players up. Not all succeeded. But his quantity allowed him to coach up half or a bit more of his draft picks. Which is why that worked.

We have no idea who our head coach will be, what his scheme will be, what his needs will be, and thus is ignorant to assume any kind of strategy for him. I know what I would like, but it also may not be what he needs to begin turning the team around.

 

[St. Widge]

We are 64M over the cap. I think Loomis can PUP list Ram again for 16.5M space. Davis, Hill, HB, Granderson, McCoy gets us 28M. Foster, Warner, Shaheed are 6M. That covers about 50M in cap. Kicking 20M of Carr's money gives us 6M space for rookies.

That's before addressing Jordan's contract/decision, not touching Ruiz's 8M, and not resigning JJ or Young for cap savings.

I'm no cap expert so maybe it can be done, but from what I've read you pretty much so have to convert Carr's entire salary to a bonus to get under the cap.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

I think Ireland has a relatively low bust rate, but since 2017 he hasn't really hit on any Pro-Bowl level players or many guys outside of the top 3 rounds which is why I think his drafting has been mediocre.

But sure if he has more picks you will get more talent. I'm just saying we need more quality in addition to more quantity.

Perhaps i was misunderstood. It's not more or less the quantity, it's the quality of the picks IE within the top 100. When Ireland has had a certain # of picks within the top 100 he's done well.

2018 - (1) #91 (Trequan Smith)
2019 - (1) #48 (Erk McCoy)
2020 - (2) #24, #74 ( Cesar Ruiz, Zach Baun)
2021 - (3) *28, #60, #76 (Payton Turner, Pete Werner, Pauslon Adebo)
2022 - (3) #11, #19, #49 ( Chris Olave, Trevor Penning, Alontae Taylor)
2023 - (3) #29, #40, #71 ( Bresee, Foskey, Miller)
2024 - (2) #14, #413 (Fuaga, McKinstry)

The only real non contributor on that list is Foskey. We're obviously not skilled at the DE position, I think that's because the prototypes need to be adjusted. I also have to acknowledge that 2022-2024 were all draft classes headed by Allen under the (Smart, Tough, Competitive) mantra which likely changed the "types" of guys we became interested in acquiring.

Conversely

2017 (5) #11, 32, 42, 67, 76 (and I could throw in 103) Latt, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone and Hendrickson if you throw in 103. Ironically it was also the draft where we let the board fall to us and found value in each pick. We tried to trade up for the Reuben Foster and thank god that crashed through because we ended up w/ Ram. However, it was the type of draft I'm sure Ireland enjoys having because he gets to trust the board over the need to get a specific player which all the subsequent drafts became about.

Trying to plug that one hole. I shall restate my point.

Give Ireland more top 100 picks, and he'll give you quality talent. Force him to fill holes in the roster,and we tend to have a rougher go at it.

 

[Grumpy Old Manatee]

So I figured I'd do some examining of the Saints approach to the draft of "F dem picks" and constantly trading away picks to move up and compared it to the teams currently leading their divisions, or are a great team stuck in a loaded division (looking at you NFC North), or in playoff contention. This is over a five year span, so dating back from 2020 to the present.

By default, a team is given 7 picks per draft.

The AFC East leading Bills have made 39 picks, 7.8 picks per draft.
The AFC West leading Chiefs have made 36 picks, 7.2 picks per draft.
The AFC North leading Ravens have made 44 picks, 8.8 picks per draft.
The AFC South leading Texans have made 37 picks, 7.4 picks per draft.
The NFC East leading Eagles have made 40 picks, 8 picks per draft.
The NFC West leading Rams have made 50 picks, 10 picks per draft.
The NFC South leading Succaneers have made 37 picks, 7.4 picks per draft.
The NFC North leading Vikings have made 49 picks, 9.8 picks per draft.
The NFC North second place for now Lions have made 38 picks, 7.6 picks per draft.
The NFC North somehow third place Packers have made 53 picks, 10.6 picks per draft.

The Commanders have made 42 picks, 8.4 picks per draft.
The Steelers have made 36 picks, 7.2 picks per draft.
The Chargers have made 39 picks, 7.8 picks per draft.
The Broncos have made 41 picks, 8.2 picks per draft.
The Bengals have made 41 picks, 8.2 picks per draft.
The chokers in Georgia have made 38 picks, 7.6 picks per draft.
The Dolphins have made 33 picks, 6.6 picks per draft.

The 49ers fall from grace this season has been remarkable, but they've played in 3 of the 5 NFC Championship games including this season. 39 picks, 7.8 picks per draft.

Going back to 2000, more than two decades, the Patriots have drafted less than 7 players just TWICE.

For those who haven't seen my previous posts, the Saints have made 29 picks, 5.8 picks per draft.

Since the new era Saints started in 2006, the Saints have made less than 7 picks in 12 drafts. (How much did Drew Brees fool Payton/front office into thinking they were geniuses?) It is interesting to see that Payton in his first draft after being crippled in 2023 by the Wilson trade, Denver had 7 picks. Will be interesting to see if he was a driving force behind the Saints "fork dem picks" strategy or if he continues to make 7+ picks per draft and shows Loomis was the one doing it. Loomis to his credit has left the last two drafts with 14 picks, 7 and 7. Perhaps he's learned?

The back to back defending champs Kansas City have made 36 picks over five years, one pick more than the default allotment so even they value draft picks despite their elite status. Almost like the best team in the league knows its roster is going to get raided regularly and they need to bring in plenty of talent every season to reload.

Now I am sure there are people who will say "well there are bottom feeders who also make a lot of picks", yes, and? Just one team averages less than 7 picks per draft and is in playoff contention. And they're trending down: the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins made just 4 picks in 2022, 4 picks in 2023, and 7 picks in 2024. There is a lot of discussion about a decline in talent and depth on the Dolphins roster.

The draft is not an exact science, it is just a whole bunch of educated guesses. The more educated guesses you get, the more chances you get to be right.

Did you utilize a graduated cylinder?

 

[St. Widge]

Perhaps i was misunderstood. It's not more or less the quantity, it's the quality of the picks IE within the top 100. When Ireland has had a certain # of picks within the top 100 he's done well.

2018 - (1) #91 (Trequan Smith)
2019 - (1) #48 (Erk McCoy)
2020 - (2) #24, #74 ( Cesar Ruiz, Zach Baun)
2021 - (3) *28, #60, #76 (Payton Turner, Pete Werner, Pauslon Adebo)
2022 - (3) #11, #19, #49 ( Chris Olave, Trevor Penning, Alontae Taylor)
2023 - (3) #29, #40, #71 ( Bresee, Foskey, Miller)
2024 - (2) #14, #413 (Fuaga, McKinstry)

The only real non contributor on that list is Foskey. We're obviously not skilled at the DE position, I think that's because the prototypes need to be adjusted. I also have to acknowledge that 2022-2024 were all draft classes headed by Allen under the (Smart, Tough, Competitive) mantra which likely changed the "types" of guys we became interested in acquiring.

Conversely

2017 (5) #11, 32, 42, 67, 76 (and I could throw in 103) Latt, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anzalone and Hendrickson if you throw in 103. Ironically it was also the draft where we let the board fall to us and found value in each pick. We tried to trade up for the Reuben Foster and thank god that crashed through because we ended up w/ Ram. However, it was the type of draft I'm sure Ireland enjoys having because he gets to trust the board over the need to get a specific player which all the subsequent drafts became about.

Trying to plug that one hole. I shall restate my point.

Give Ireland more top 100 picks, and he'll give you quality talent. Force him to fill holes in the roster,and we tend to have a rougher go at it.

That's fair and I did misunderstand. I do think giving him more top 100 picks would help, but like I said, while he doesn't have busts outside of maybe Foskey and Turner, he also really hasn't drafted enough Pro-Bowl or All-Pro quality guys in those top 100 picks. McCoy is the only one I think is at that level now. But I do think Fuaga and Taylor could develop to that level. Olave is a good player but I'm not sure he's ever going to be a great player given his size and injury issues.

He's done okay with those picks but I think you have to hit on more star players with those picks if you are going to be a really good team.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

That's fair and I did misunderstand. I do think giving him more top 100 picks would help, but like I said, while he doesn't have busts outside of maybe Foskey and Turner, he also really hasn't drafted enough Pro-Bowl or All-Pro quality guys in those top 100 picks. McCoy is the only one I think is at that level now. But I do think Fuaga and Taylor could develop to that level. Olave is a good player but I'm not sure he's ever going to be a great player given his size and injury issues.

He's done okay with those picks but I think you have to hit on more star players with those picks if you are going to be a really good team.

Olave was drafted to fill a need. The whole notion in 22 that we were a couple players away from competing sunk us. Olave was drafted to replace Ted Ginn/Emmanuel Sanders. Penning to replace armstead.

We got caught drafting for need. We even adjusted our prototype to draft Olave. He’s the first receiver under 190lbs that we drafted for this system. Payton would have never.

Some of that falls on Allen, some of that falls on being desperate. I don’t think it’s an indictment on Ireland.

 

[webster]

So I figured I'd do some examining of the Saints approach to the draft of "F dem picks" and constantly trading away picks to move up and compared it to the teams currently leading their divisions, or are a great team stuck in a loaded division (looking at you NFC North), or in playoff contention. This is over a five year span, so dating back from 2020 to the present.

By default, a team is given 7 picks per draft.

The AFC East leading Bills have made 39 picks, 7.8 picks per draft.
The AFC West leading Chiefs have made 36 picks, 7.2 picks per draft.
The AFC North leading Ravens have made 44 picks, 8.8 picks per draft.
The AFC South leading Texans have made 37 picks, 7.4 picks per draft.
The NFC East leading Eagles have made 40 picks, 8 picks per draft.
The NFC West leading Rams have made 50 picks, 10 picks per draft.
The NFC South leading Succaneers have made 37 picks, 7.4 picks per draft.
The NFC North leading Vikings have made 49 picks, 9.8 picks per draft.
The NFC North second place for now Lions have made 38 picks, 7.6 picks per draft.
The NFC North somehow third place Packers have made 53 picks, 10.6 picks per draft.

The Commanders have made 42 picks, 8.4 picks per draft.
The Steelers have made 36 picks, 7.2 picks per draft.
The Chargers have made 39 picks, 7.8 picks per draft.
The Broncos have made 41 picks, 8.2 picks per draft.
The Bengals have made 41 picks, 8.2 picks per draft.
The chokers in Georgia have made 38 picks, 7.6 picks per draft.
The Dolphins have made 33 picks, 6.6 picks per draft.

The 49ers fall from grace this season has been remarkable, but they've played in 3 of the 5 NFC Championship games including this season. 39 picks, 7.8 picks per draft.

Going back to 2000, more than two decades, the Patriots have drafted less than 7 players just TWICE.

For those who haven't seen my previous posts, the Saints have made 29 picks, 5.8 picks per draft.

Since the new era Saints started in 2006, the Saints have made less than 7 picks in 12 drafts. (How much did Drew Brees fool Payton/front office into thinking they were geniuses?) It is interesting to see that Payton in his first draft after being crippled in 2023 by the Wilson trade, Denver had 7 picks. Will be interesting to see if he was a driving force behind the Saints "fork dem picks" strategy or if he continues to make 7+ picks per draft and shows Loomis was the one doing it. Loomis to his credit has left the last two drafts with 14 picks, 7 and 7. Perhaps he's learned?

The back to back defending champs Kansas City have made 36 picks over five years, one pick more than the default allotment so even they value draft picks despite their elite status. Almost like the best team in the league knows its roster is going to get raided regularly and they need to bring in plenty of talent every season to reload.

Now I am sure there are people who will say "well there are bottom feeders who also make a lot of picks", yes, and? Just one team averages less than 7 picks per draft and is in playoff contention. And they're trending down: the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins made just 4 picks in 2022, 4 picks in 2023, and 7 picks in 2024. There is a lot of discussion about a decline in talent and depth on the Dolphins roster.

The draft is not an exact science, it is just a whole bunch of educated guesses. The more educated guesses you get, the more chances you get to be right.

I agree, it’s the shotgun theory. Teams miss on sure things every year. Look at Chase Young and Bryce Young, the are not the exceptions.

 

[BreesusSaves]

Olave was drafted to fill a need. The whole notion in 22 that we were a couple players away from competing sunk us. Olave was drafted to replace Ted Ginn/Emmanuel Sanders. Penning to replace armstead.

We got caught drafting for need. We even adjusted our prototype to draft Olave. He’s the first receiver under 190lbs that we drafted for this system. Payton would have never.

Some of that falls on Allen, some of that falls on being desperate. I don’t think it’s an indictment on Ireland.

The big trend I see is that when the Saints attempt to go for need over letting the draft come to them, they don't do too hot. Defensive End has been the biggest area we've seen them chasing and it resulted in Davenport, Turner and Foskey. In 2017 when they simply let the cards fall, they got Hendrickson. Granderson is a UDFA. Jordan was BPA.

The Saints were trying to force Reuben Foster. They wound up "settling" with Ryan Ramcyzk who was the best RT in football before his injury and the next year got Demario Davis, arguably the second best free agent signing in Saints history. Foster meanwhile has been the very definition of a bust.

The teams drafting the best pure talent either wind up with an embarrassment of riches or never really feeling the squeeze of need and truly can live by the motto next man up.

Loomis has said in the past their draft strategy has been bubbles. They group players with close talent evaluations together and take the one that also fits a need when possible, but I feel like they often lean too far into the need part and not simply who is just a flat out baller.

 

[Trey W.]

You left out Davenport #14 pick in the 2018 draft.

Davenport, Turner, & Foskey have all been busts that we drafted high.