Comparing Saints Defense to SF Defense and our future games with Panthers (1 Viewer)

BigSaintsFAN9

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Just sharing some figures I pulled for a post on another board.

Panthers vs Saints comparison, who is better team?

Saints Offense #2 vs Panthers Defense #2

Saints Defense #5 vs Panthers Offense #15. <<--- Why i think Saints better team!




Panther offense struggled to put 10 on SF def, here is how Saints D compares:

SF defense vs Saints defense (so much closer than I thought!)

Points a game - 17.2 vs 18.1 - they are allowing 0.9 less a game, yet if you take away the pick 6 which defense wasn't on field for, it's basically even

Total yards - 316.8 vs 317.6 - 7 yards less in 9 game, basically less than a yard a game difference!

Rush yards - 105.3 vs 117.7 - 111 yards more by Saints, so 12 rush yards more a game, not huge difference considering SF one of best rush Def

Pass Defense 211.4 vs 199.9 - 12 pass yards more by 49ers than #3 ranked Saints defense

So basically the SF defense Panthers barely put 10 on is statistically almost the same as Saints, yet Saints have #2 offense vs 49ers 23rd ranked offense!



My thoughts on chance of Panthers overtaking us:

Saints currently own two tiebreakers over Panthers already. The chances of Panthers sweeping Saints is minimal, Brees has played very well against Panthers with Newton and Riveras only wins coming last year against a handicapped team with no HC where in second game, Brees had about 118 passer rating and came close to doubling the defensive points allowed. I think we split games with each winning home games, and that leaves probable wins over Bucs and Falcons, and that means the 3 other games will decide it. But with one game lead and tiebreaker, Panthers would need to go 2-1 and Saints lose all 3, or 3-0 in those 3 games while Saints would need to go 1-2.
 
Yea I was noticing the stats vs SF earlier today. Looks better for us.
 
Yea I was noticing the stats vs SF earlier today. Looks better for us.

I was totally surprised how statistically similar our a Defense is compared to SF which is supposed to be one of the best. I was also surprised that the difference between SF run defense and our is 12 yards a game! I thought our run defense was close to dead last.
 
People shouldn't be scared of the Panthers beating the Saints for the NFC South title. They are a good team, but not great. I love their defense, but their offense is still ran by Cam Newton and if he tries to be explosive he makes mistakes. If they keep playing conservative they can keep winning a lot of games, but definitely not against the Saints in the dome. I see them in the #5 wildcard spot with SF being #6 come the postseason.
 
I think Kaep only throws the ball 8 times a game now....would be hard to picks six him just based on the percentages.
 
I fear that this may be the game that Harbaugh will call Kaepernicks number to run the ball numerous times and our run defense has been inconsistent.
 
Last season, Drew's pick 6s were the difference. Last season's team stunk it up on D, but handled Kap and the 9ers pretty well defensively.
 
I fear that this may be the game that Harbaugh will call Kaepernicks number to run the ball numerous times and our run defense has been inconsistent.

One thing I noticed with run game is that we have a few times allowed a lot of yards to runners on back to back plays for a drive mainly because we are sitting in nickel, but then we adjust by bringing a safety down or a run blitz or something similar. Then after that adjustment, on first down we usually stuff them for no yards or loss, then 2nd down goes about the same or only gets 2-3 yards at best, and then other team is left facing a 3rd and long and that is where our defense has been at its best. They apply pressure, make ball come out quick, and more times than not we got off the field by not allowing a 1st down.

Even in Jets game, one of the worst run defense games, it was missed tackles that led to Ivorys success, not scheme or defensive alignment. In 8 other games, we have averaged 2-3 missed tackles a game, but in Jets game we had 12! Further, it was 3 big runs by Ivory at key points that really hurt us, and those were due to multiple missed tackles. Hopefully they keep practicing sound tackling this week. Conversely, we had only 2 missed tackles against Cowboys.
 
While I'm not too concerned with the Panthers' offense, I think the defensive rankings need to be looked at a little bit more than just yardage given up.

The passing defenses are similar as the Saints allow an average passer rating of 75.5 to the 49ers 73.1. You could argue the Saints played better quarterbacks (the best QBs the 49ers faced - Rodgers, Luck, Wilson - their teams scored 28, 29, and 27 points).

But the rushing defense is a bigger gap than you would think. The 49ers give up an average of 3.9 yards per carry. The Saints give up 5.0 yards per carry... tied for worst in the league (with KC).
 
Looking a yards per carry can also be deceptive, for instance, game 1, we gave up 77 yards to Jackson on 11 carries, a YPC of 7, yet the reality was he broke off a 50 yard run and was 10 carries for 2.7 on the 10 others. So 10 times out of 11 we held him to an average of less than 3 yards.

Same with Jets game, Ivory had 139 yards on 18 carries, yet 109 came on 3 runs with missed tackles, so he went 15 carries for 30 yards on the other 15 plays.

I know that's a little oversimplification, but just trying to point out that Saints defense usually has been in place to make plays and has made them the majority of the time and was back to just two missed tackles last game. When they are not missing tackles, the run defense has been really good,
 
I fear that this may be the game that Harbaugh will call Kaepernicks number to run the ball numerous times and our run defense has been inconsistent.


.

Alas, I fear the same!

9ers are probably starting to feel DESPERATE and won't hesitate to have Colin Run, Run, Run!

Hopefully the Saints have been studying the film on how to stop the Read Option!!!

.
 
.

Alas, I fear the same!

9ers are probably starting to feel DESPERATE and won't hesitate to have Colin Run, Run, Run!

Hopefully the Saints have been studying the film on how to stop the Read Option!!!

.

lol Thad Lewis treatment coming right up
 
This is a really good and enlightening thread, thanks for posting OP.
 

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