Analysis Drafting a QB in the first 10 picks. (3 Viewers)

[Stalwart385]

I see this debated often so I decided to do a bit of research.

In the last 10 Super Bowls out of a possible 20 starting QBs 11 were top 10 draft picks. Mahomes 5 times, stafford, burrow, Goff, Ryan, newton, and manning at 1 each. 9 were drafted outside of the top 10, in fact they weren’t drafted in the first round at all. Hurts twice, Brady 4 times, Purdy, Foles, and Garoppolo 1 each.

Last 10 QBs to win MVP.
5 drafted top 10 and 5 drafted outside top 10.
Newton, Ryan, Allen 1 each and Mahomes twice.
Brady once. Lamar and Rodger’s twice each.

Super Bowl appearances and mvps it’s basically 50/50.

Then I looked at every QB drafted top 10 the past 10 years.

2024: Williams, Daniels, Maye, penix, and McCarthy
2023: Stroud, young, Richardson
2022: none.
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert
2019: Murray, Jones
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes
2016: Goff, Wentz
2015: Winston, Mariota

26 total QBs drafted in the top 10. Two of them have made the Super Bowl. In the same time span 2 QBs drafted outside the top 10 have also made the SuperBowl.

It doesn’t appear that drafting inside the top 10 provides a better chance of hitting on QB that will take us to the SuperBowl. Admittedly the QBs drafted top 10 this past year could move the data in that direction in the coming years but at this point it hasn’t been proven yet.

Edit: posted this last night when I was half asleep and rereading it today it’s obvious I did a poor job expressing what I meant. So some clarifications. The debate I was referring to was about tanking/losing for higher drafts picks. Not specifically drafting QBs. I chose the QB position because I didn’t have the energy to look up every position and felt it was the most important position.

I generally agree that getting a top QB definitely requires luck and no one strategy will save you.

That said there is clearly an advantage to drafting in the top 10 and you just said it. 50% of mvp qbs were top 10 qbs, etc. Think of how many top 10 qbs there are versus non top 10 qbs. That 50% number is a huge advantage to top 10.

Of course it's not a given, as I said with my original statement, but I very much disagree that there isn't a better chance. I think what you researched says there is.

 

[StudioSaint]

They've let us down mightily in the past, but if they decide there's a QB they can't resist... Do it.

Have to trust them to make the decisions, but considering we've only picked one QB in the first round in team history (Don't count Dave Wilson), and that was Archie Manning in 1971, I'd say the chances are remote.

The Saints in 1971 are a completely different Saints of now. Different owner, different coaches and I don't think a single employee back in 1971 is with the team now. I think it's just an odd coincidence rather than an institutional philosophy or preference.

I think that within the next three years they'll draft a QB either in the first round or high in the second round. That's unless another Brees like free agent QB lands at their doorstep before they draft one.

Even IF Carr were to play like a future Hall of Famer and the Saints win a Super Bowl with him, I think 3 more seasons is the most that Carr might be with the Saints.