I’m inclined to think the Saints would ideally like to leave this draft w/ Bowers (3 Viewers)

[Lionsaint]

My question is and I’m way too lazy to look it up myself, in that half a decade span where they weren’t drafting OL in the first what did their OLine look like? Was it a bunch of lower round players? Did they have first and second round players from the previous years that were older but still playing well? Did they have players from the first round that they didn’t draft but signed via FA? If it worked with lower round players for those years why did they draft OLine high other years? Why not continue that draft strategy and say not draft a first round lineman for 10 years? 15 years?.

 

[St. Widge]

So the fact that we have drafted Oline better in later rounds, makes us the exception, not the rule.

Stop being intentionally obtuse and I didn't say we draft OL better in later rounds. Teams, including the Saints, sometimes get lucky on OL in later rounds, but it's not a sustainable way to build an OL or a good strategy for building an OL. It's not like the Saints have some special talent for drafting OL in the later rounds, you need look no further than Rick Leonard.

The last good Later round OL we took was Armstead 11 years ago and he was taken in the 3rd round. The next was Carl Nicks in the 5th 16 years ago.

That's two good later round pick OL (if you consider the 3rd a later round) in the last 16 years. You can not build an OL like that. Even if you go further back and add Bushrod and Evans, that's 4 in 18 years.

 

[Summed7]

"Nine tight ends have been selected in the first round of the past 10 drafts. Those players have combined for zero All-Pro nods and one 1,000-yard season. "

Just read this from TheRinger article. Thought it was worth mentioning. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/4/18/24133333/nfl-draft-traps-to-avoid-2024

 

[Infoman]

 

[SWJJ]

"Nine tight ends have been selected in the first round of the past 10 drafts. Those players have combined for zero All-Pro nods and one 1,000-yard season. "

Just read this from TheRinger article. Thought it was worth mentioning. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/4/18/24133333/nfl-draft-traps-to-avoid-2024

1000 yard season by tight ends are incredibly rare, All-Pro is a ridiculous standard to gauge success.

The 9 tight ends drafted in the first the last 10 years and their best season are:

Kyle Pitts - has a 68 catch 1000 yard season and a pro bowl
TJ Hockenson - 95 catches 960 yard season and a pro bowl - 13 points and 3 first place votes for All Pro
Noah Fant - 60 + catches 700 yards
Hayden Hurst - 56 catches 571 yards
OJ Howard - 26 catches 432 yards 6 TDs
Evan Engram -114 catches 963 yards Pro Bowl
David Njoku - 81 catches 883 yards Pro bowl
Eric Ebron - 66 catches 750 yards 13 TDs Pro Bowl
Tyler Eifert - 52 catches 615 yards 13 TD probowl

I wouldn't call anyone of them a bust. Every one of them were legitimate starters, and several are pro bowlers, hock could have easily been all pro . More than 66% of the Tight Ends drafted in the first round made the pro bowl. The way that Sheil Kapadia frames his article makes it sound like most TEs taken in the first round are busts, but the FACTS say different.

​

 

[Infoman]

Kincaid and LaPorta were also taken in the top 34 picks last year... they are pretty good too. It has nothing to do with the history... It has everything to do with the player...

 

[St. Widge]

Kincaid and LaPorta were also taken in the top 34 picks last year... they are pretty good too. It has nothing to do with the history... It has everything to do with the player...

Agreed. It's the sunken cost fallacy in action. You have to evaluate the individual player regardless of if it's a TE, OT, DE, etc. It doesn't matter if an individual position hasn't worked out in the past or if a team hasn't done a great job at drafting a certain position in the past. All that matters is a proper evaluation of each individual player in each draft.

 

[RJS]

Here's another article from the don't take a tight end early crowd. To me it's a similar conversation as taking a running back early.

Why Teams Should Never Use a Top Pick on a Tight End

You should not want your favorite team to spend a top 10 pick on a tight end in the draft, no matter how good you think the player is. Recent history has proven

withthefirstpick.com

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

Most of those guys aren't even on the team that drafted them anymore. The fact that highly drafted TEs have a high rate of being on other teams when they hit their primes makes drafting a TE early risky based on the historical data. TEs tend to be one of the most unpredictable positions to draft.

 

[Infoman]

Here's another article from the don't take a tight end early crowd. To me it's a similar conversation as taking a running back early.

Why Teams Should Never Use a Top Pick on a Tight End

You should not want your favorite team to spend a top 10 pick on a tight end in the draft, no matter how good you think the player is. Recent history has proven

withthefirstpick.com

Again, it's about the player... you think the Lions regret taking Gibbs 12th overall last year?

 

[RJS]

Again, it's about the player... you think the Lions regret taking Gibbs 12th overall last year?

I'm not really arguing for or against; good players make teams better. Every team in the league would like to have Brock Bowers and I'd be happy if he becomes a Saint.

That said, I understand the opinion that in a world where multiple positions are now making $25mil/yr not using a high draft pick on a position that the top players make $15mil/yr.

I also wouldn't pass on a superior prospect just for philosophical reasons.

 

[Infoman]

I'm not really arguing for or against; good players make teams better. Every team in the league would like to have Brock Bowers and I'd be happy if he becomes a Saint.

That said, I understand the opinion that in a world where multiple positions are now making $25mil/yr not using a high draft pick on a position that the top players make $15mil/yr.

I also wouldn't pass on a superior prospect just for philosophical reasons.

I get that some positions are "valued" more by teams from a $$$ standpoint... It's obvious. Tackles make more than TEs... WRs make more than RBs... CBs make more than LBs... I get it.

From an "on the field" standpoint... I'd rather have Travis Kelce than Trent Williams... and what they get paid... they get paid.

IMO the biggest thing (position) that matters in terms of the high draft pick to pay ratio... Is at the QB position... because you get 5 years of reasonable cap, and if you pick the right QB... what you pay other positions and where you draft them becomes a lot easier to deal with.

 

[SWJJ]

Here's another article from the don't take a tight end early crowd. To me it's a similar conversation as taking a running back early.

Why Teams Should Never Use a Top Pick on a Tight End

You should not want your favorite team to spend a top 10 pick on a tight end in the draft, no matter how good you think the player is. Recent history has proven

withthefirstpick.com

This Dustin Mosher cat just said TJ Hockenson was disappointing for the Lions.

People are just saying stuff. Now his injury concerns did bother the lions, he missed half of 2 of his first 3 seasons. But when he was in the game he was a baller. He played 47 games for the lions, had 186 catches for 2068 yards. That a 4 catch 44 yard per game average. That projects to a full season to about 70 catches 750 yards.

and all he did since joining the Vikings is to be the best TE not named Kelce or Kittle.

Do you know the last time the Saints had a TE that had 70 catches or 750 yards? Do you know the last time our entire TE room combined had that kinda production?

in 2016, Colby Fleener, Josh Hill and John Phillips combined for 70 catches for 802 yards, the last time our entire TE room combined for more yards than Hock averaged for Detroit.

in 2015, Ben Watson had 74 catches and 825 yards.

Almost a decade since we had a TE with the kind of production from a TE that Mosher calls "disappointing."

 

[RJS]

This Dustin Mosher cat just said TJ Hockenson was disappointing for the Lions.

People are just saying stuff. Now his injury concerns did bother the lions, he missed half of 2 of his first 3 seasons. But when he was in the game he was a baller. He played 47 games for the lions, had 186 catches for 2068 yards. That a 4 catch 44 yard per game average. That projects to a full season to about 70 catches 750 yards.

and all he did since joining the Vikings is to be the best TE not named Kelce or Kittle.

Do you know the last time the Saints had a TE that had 70 catches or 750 yards? Do you know the last time our entire TE room combined had that kinda production?

in 2016, Colby Fleener, Josh Hill and John Phillips combined for 70 catches for 802 yards, the last time our entire TE room combined for more yards than Hock averaged for Detroit.

in 2015, Ben Watson had 74 catches and 825 yards.

Almost a decade since we had a TE with the kind of production from a TE that Mosher calls "disappointing."

I think you are kind of making the author's point. If Chris Olave was averaging 70 catches for 750 yards would anyone think that it would have been a good use of the 11th overall pick?

 

[SWJJ]

I think you are kind of making the author's point. If Chris Olave was averaging 70 catches for 750 yards would anyone think that it would have been a good use of the 11th overall pick?

Chris Olave is a WR not a TE.

70 catches for 750 yards is pro-bowl level stats for TEs.