Interesting how Vegas looks at the Saints (1 Viewer)

[weunice]

We won 7 games last year. We were injured last year more than the average team - to key personnel. We finished second to last with a -11 turnover margin. Turnovers are a telling stat in football. They can make losses that shouldn't be. It likely cost us 3 games last year, if not more. We SHOULD have been a 10 win team just on the strength of the ball bouncing in our favor a few times.

We will have better QB play. We have the easiest schedule, on paper, in the NFL. It is unlikely we go -11 again. It is unlikely we are AS injured. I like our odds to hit the over.

 

[nolaswede]

One site has the Saints @ over 8.5(-165 juice).

 

[Optimistic Ozzy]

Because I always go to Chris Simms for hard-hitting NFL coverage....

He's a clown.

That top button at the neckline always convinces me.

 

[los226]

Vegas odds mean nothing. These futures bets are based on the public’s perception to try to get a lot of the public to put money down.

 

[Big_L]

Who is Chris Simms?!?

He's no Mike Jones.

 

[wwepatriot]

As someone that does Sports betting on occasion, lesson that’s gonna be learned when Vegas has screwy numbers like this, is don’t put the Saints on your ticket for anything, and if you cannot resist, just put it on there for money line. You know what should happen in these games, and you know the Vegas odds will influence the outcomes on some of these.

 

[SaintStephen1]

I think the guys in Vegas looked at Dennis Allen’s two minute defense and figures he’ll blow a bunch of games late.

 

[Summed7]

Vegas odds mean nothing. These futures bets are based on the public’s perception to try to get a lot of the public to put money down.

While the lines are influenced on where the public's money is going, they are also shaped by sharps who know what they are doing. And while sharps are still wrong 4 times out of 10, I would say vegas odds mean more than anything else in regards to the best predictor of an NFL teams future success.

 

[bobad]

You lost me after "According to".

Who's predicting the Saints will be favored in all but 3 games? Based on what? How can anyone possibly predict that?

Spoken like a non-gambler!

 

[44slayer]

According to this Chris Simms podcast, the Saints will be favored in all but 3 games, a fact which Simms said he was shocked to hear. However, the over/under win total is 9.5. Obviously oddsmakers think we won’t be able to finish games, just like last year. Also of note, the host of the podcast said 77% of the Vegas money has been spent on the Falcons going OVER 8.5 wins as opposed to under.

Simms apparently didnt do his homework and look at our schedule. We have a powderpuff schedule by NFL standards. We dont play a QB that Derek Carr isnt at least the equal. If you gave us say, the Chargers schedule, we might be favored in 5 games. They play KC twice, Det, SF, Buff, Mia, Den twice, NYJ, Dal and Bal. Im not sure we would be favored in any of those 11 games on a neutral site - a couple of those might be a push. We have to capitalize on this schedule. And Allen has no excuses left if he cant win 10+.

Vegas and the 9.5 is all about Dennis Allen. Our perpetual injury situation and lack of overall depth would be concern #2.