Iraq--The Effects on the '08 Elections (1 Viewer)

[RJ in Lafayette]

Different topic. For the most part, those who regularly post on political subjects on this forum know where most stand with regard to Iraq and the Bush's administration's foreign policy.

However, we have national elections in 16 months--we elect a new president, all House seats are up, a third of Senate seats are up.

Admittedly, 16 months in politics is a long way off. Another 9.11 attack, another war, could change the political calculus. But the way things stand now, unless we substantially reduce our presence in Iraq over the next 6 to 9 months, the Republican party is going to take a bath in November 2008. I am talking about significant gains for the Democrats in both houses of Congress and a real chance of Hillary, whose negative ratings are awfully high, getting elected president (and the next president will name at least one and likely two Supreme Court justices).

Forget about whether our policies in Iraq and the Middle East are ultimately wise or not. What about their impact on the 2008 elections?

 

[Richard]

IMO Republicans will take significant losses in Congress, barring an unforeseen event, and even then, people may prefer to see how Democrats would handle it. Iraq may still play a central role on the political landscape in 2008, but I don't think it will be as big a factor then. I still see the race for the White House differently in that, as November 2008 approaches, it will be about the two individuals in the race, rather than the party they represent. The Democratic nominee will likely start out with a large advantage, but by November, it could be tight or an edge to the Republican. The reason I say this are several, but let me give one example. Say Hillary or Obama wins the Democratic nomination. I can't see a scenario where either of them would win the debate season over any of the potential Republican nominees. Say what we will about Gulliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson or even Gingrich (and they each come with baggage), but each man comes with a record they can run on. Neither Hillary or Obama can point to even one piece of legislation they authored that has passed that I know of or any kind or record of achievement. You are then left to the things people are going to care about most in 2008. Supreme Court justices will be an issue, as well as ability to handle the office. Right now, I'd say Democrats will control the Congress and Republicans will again win the White House.