- Moderator
- #1
- Joined
- Feb 1, 1998
- Messages
- 15,488
- Reaction score
- 17,155
Offline
The premise of "know who to pull for" is that in the NFL most teams need help from other teams in some form or fashion to get to the playoffs or get a top seed. Even the Falcons have needed help this year. They would not be leading for the overall number one seed if other teams had not beaten Philly or Chicago along the way. This is yet another big weekend of kwtpf games. While the Saints conrol their wild card destiny, they could lose this week and still get in with some kwtpf help.
Some big games have obvious kwtpf implications, such as when Tampa hosted Atlanta. Other more obscure games have had just as big an impact, such as the October 31st match up in Phoenix between Tampa and Arizona. We will come back to that.
The playoff picture is reasonably clear for the Saints. If they win one of their remaining two games, they are in as the fifth seed (first wild card team). If they win both games and Atlanta loses to Carolina, the Saints win the division. That's a parlay bet that would pay a ton. If Tampa loses one game, the Saints are in as a wild card.
Now here is the scary part. If the Saints lose this week (they are underdogs) and the Bucs win (they are favored), then more likely than not the winner of the season finale between the Bucs and the Saints will go to the playoffs and the loser will not. There are some scenarios where the Saints could lose their last two games and reach the playoffs (the Giants lose out and the Packers lose to Chicago or the Eagles lose out), but let us hope it does not come to that.
I do like our chances of beating Tampa in the superdome, if that is what we have to do. A side benefit of a Saints loss this week and Bucs win would be that we end up getting a home playoff game of sorts. The playoffs for the Saints would start with our home game against Tampa. The winner would (probably) play on and the loser would (probably) go home.
So what does all this have to do with the Bucs/Cardinals game back in October? Well, if the Saints lose out and the Bucs win out, they would both be 10-6. The first tiebreak is head to head and they would be even. The second tiebreak is division record and they would both be 3-3. The third tiebreaker is common games. The Saints lost to both Cleveland and Arizona, teams the Bucs beat. Arizona had a fourth quarter lead over Tampa. Little did we know how big a kwtpf game that might turn out to be.
But you can not go back, what is done is done. I am sure Bret Favre regrets texting a picture of his feet to Rex Ryan and Michelle Ryan wishes she had not sent pictures of her junk to Jenn Sterger. Wait...I think I got that one mixed up.
I better get to the games before this one gets thrown behind the levee. 
5-9 San Francisco @ 6-8 St Louis - If we have to travel to play the WNFL West division leader, I still say I would rather go to St Louis than Seattle. The strength of the Saints team remains their offense and while they can play outside, they are most at home in a dome. Pull for the Rams.
10-4 New York Jets @ 10-4 Chicago - You have to tune into this game to see the grief the Chicago fans are going to give Rex Ryan over footgate. I feel sorry for the guy. I mean, let he who does not have some weird, freaky fetish throw the first stone.
I can imagine how I would feel if the naked pictures of me with all the saintsations dressed up as lingerie schoolgirls hit the web. 
The Bears have clinched the NFC North. The game does have implications for the Saints as to where their second round game might be if the Saints reach as a wild card. It hurts my head too much to figure that out. Pull for the Jets and look for all the Bear's fans to have their bare bearfeet hanging over the rails trying to distract Ryan. :idogpile:
9-5 New York Giants @ 8-6 Green Bay - This is kind of complicated. It is a must game for Green Bay. As bad of shape that they are in, I think the Packers do control their own destiny by beating the Giants this week and the Bears next week. That is no easy task but very possible. We want Green Bay to win because that sets up a possible scenario where the Giants could be eliminated with a loss to Washington and we would advance, even losing our last two games, with the Bucs (if Green Bay then lost to the Bears). I told you it was complicated.
6-8 Seattle @ 8-6 Tampa Bay - This one is not complicated. We needed an easy kwtpf game after that one and here it is. Pull for Seattle. If the Bucs lose Sunday the Saints are in the playoffs and are playing for seeding. Tampa is obviously the favorite in this game. Tampa's problem is that they are not good enough to have an off day and still win if Seattle plays well. We will know the outcome before we play Atlanta.
5-9 Minnesota @ 10-4 Philadelphia - As hard as our home game loss to Atlanta was this year, I do not think it compares to the way New Yok lost to their East rival Philadelphia last week. That loss was epic. Favre now has a concussion to go along with his bad ankle, elbow tendonitis, separated shoulder and woman problems. This guy is so tough its almost comical watching him somehow still play. I do not know about you, but I bought some wrangler jeans to wear just in case he plays. I have some buds coming over to watch the game who also bought wranglers. We are not shaving this week and at halftime we are going to have this cool pick up game and then go fishing and do other guy things in our wranglers after the game. Pull for Minny.
10-4 New Orleans @ 12-2 Atlanta - Forget about the power rankings and all that nonsense. There is very little separation between these two teams. Despite their record and what others say, this years' Saint's team is every bit as good as the Saint's team in week sixteen was last year, if not better. The problem is that this year's Falcon's team is better than last year's Falcon's team. The game would be even money on a neutral field and that is about how I see the game. The Saints have a better offense with more weapons. Atlanta has a better power running game. I do not see either team having a big defensive advantage over the other. The ball that bounced so much the Saint's way last year is bouncing the Falcon's way this year and that has been the big difference. There is no secret strategy to this one. The Saints will crowd the box to stop the run and make Ryan beat them. As is usually the case when two evenly matched teams play, the team who wins the turnover battle in this game probably wins a close game. The Saints are defending Super Bowl champs until they are not and the Falcons are wannabes until they win it all.
Some big games have obvious kwtpf implications, such as when Tampa hosted Atlanta. Other more obscure games have had just as big an impact, such as the October 31st match up in Phoenix between Tampa and Arizona. We will come back to that.
The playoff picture is reasonably clear for the Saints. If they win one of their remaining two games, they are in as the fifth seed (first wild card team). If they win both games and Atlanta loses to Carolina, the Saints win the division. That's a parlay bet that would pay a ton. If Tampa loses one game, the Saints are in as a wild card.
Now here is the scary part. If the Saints lose this week (they are underdogs) and the Bucs win (they are favored), then more likely than not the winner of the season finale between the Bucs and the Saints will go to the playoffs and the loser will not. There are some scenarios where the Saints could lose their last two games and reach the playoffs (the Giants lose out and the Packers lose to Chicago or the Eagles lose out), but let us hope it does not come to that.
I do like our chances of beating Tampa in the superdome, if that is what we have to do. A side benefit of a Saints loss this week and Bucs win would be that we end up getting a home playoff game of sorts. The playoffs for the Saints would start with our home game against Tampa. The winner would (probably) play on and the loser would (probably) go home.
So what does all this have to do with the Bucs/Cardinals game back in October? Well, if the Saints lose out and the Bucs win out, they would both be 10-6. The first tiebreak is head to head and they would be even. The second tiebreak is division record and they would both be 3-3. The third tiebreaker is common games. The Saints lost to both Cleveland and Arizona, teams the Bucs beat. Arizona had a fourth quarter lead over Tampa. Little did we know how big a kwtpf game that might turn out to be.
But you can not go back, what is done is done. I am sure Bret Favre regrets texting a picture of his feet to Rex Ryan and Michelle Ryan wishes she had not sent pictures of her junk to Jenn Sterger. Wait...I think I got that one mixed up.
I better get to the games before this one gets thrown behind the levee. 5-9 San Francisco @ 6-8 St Louis - If we have to travel to play the WNFL West division leader, I still say I would rather go to St Louis than Seattle. The strength of the Saints team remains their offense and while they can play outside, they are most at home in a dome. Pull for the Rams.
10-4 New York Jets @ 10-4 Chicago - You have to tune into this game to see the grief the Chicago fans are going to give Rex Ryan over footgate. I feel sorry for the guy. I mean, let he who does not have some weird, freaky fetish throw the first stone.
I can imagine how I would feel if the naked pictures of me with all the saintsations dressed up as lingerie schoolgirls hit the web. The Bears have clinched the NFC North. The game does have implications for the Saints as to where their second round game might be if the Saints reach as a wild card. It hurts my head too much to figure that out. Pull for the Jets and look for all the Bear's fans to have their bare bearfeet hanging over the rails trying to distract Ryan. :idogpile:9-5 New York Giants @ 8-6 Green Bay - This is kind of complicated. It is a must game for Green Bay. As bad of shape that they are in, I think the Packers do control their own destiny by beating the Giants this week and the Bears next week. That is no easy task but very possible. We want Green Bay to win because that sets up a possible scenario where the Giants could be eliminated with a loss to Washington and we would advance, even losing our last two games, with the Bucs (if Green Bay then lost to the Bears).
I told you it was complicated. 6-8 Seattle @ 8-6 Tampa Bay - This one is not complicated. We needed an easy kwtpf game after that one and here it is. Pull for Seattle. If the Bucs lose Sunday the Saints are in the playoffs and are playing for seeding. Tampa is obviously the favorite in this game. Tampa's problem is that they are not good enough to have an off day and still win if Seattle plays well. We will know the outcome before we play Atlanta.
5-9 Minnesota @ 10-4 Philadelphia - As hard as our home game loss to Atlanta was this year, I do not think it compares to the way New Yok lost to their East rival Philadelphia last week. That loss was epic. Favre now has a concussion to go along with his bad ankle, elbow tendonitis, separated shoulder and woman problems. This guy is so tough its almost comical watching him somehow still play. I do not know about you, but I bought some wrangler jeans to wear just in case he plays. I have some buds coming over to watch the game who also bought wranglers. We are not shaving this week and at halftime we are going to have this cool pick up game and then go fishing and do other guy things in our wranglers after the game. Pull for Minny.
10-4 New Orleans @ 12-2 Atlanta - Forget about the power rankings and all that nonsense. There is very little separation between these two teams. Despite their record and what others say, this years' Saint's team is every bit as good as the Saint's team in week sixteen was last year, if not better. The problem is that this year's Falcon's team is better than last year's Falcon's team. The game would be even money on a neutral field and that is about how I see the game. The Saints have a better offense with more weapons. Atlanta has a better power running game. I do not see either team having a big defensive advantage over the other. The ball that bounced so much the Saint's way last year is bouncing the Falcon's way this year and that has been the big difference. There is no secret strategy to this one. The Saints will crowd the box to stop the run and make Ryan beat them. As is usually the case when two evenly matched teams play, the team who wins the turnover battle in this game probably wins a close game. The Saints are defending Super Bowl champs until they are not and the Falcons are wannabes until they win it all.
