Matthew Berry loves Eagles WR Devonta Smith against the Saints (10 Viewers)

[BlackNGoldblood]

My question, how do we let this guy beat us with AJ Brown out and Marshon Lattimore seemingly back from injury? Oh and by the way, on the Ross Tucker podcast this week, film expert Greg Cosell said Alonte Taylor might be the best slot corner in the entire league. So..how does Berry’s prediction come true, or is this just hogwash? Does it happen while we are concentrating so hard on trying to stop their run? My guess is Berry is looking at numbers that reflect Taylor working into the slot corner role early last year that don’t necessarily indicate how well he is playing now. Here’s what Berry wrote this week:
“Instead, I want to talk about Eagles pass catcher DeVonta Smith taking on the Saints in a game that has Week 3’s second-highest game total at 49.5. Since the start of last season, the Saints are allowing the fifth-most yards per game to the slot, while Smith has seen 50% of his targets so far this season come in the slot. Smith will also continue to see a lot of extra work with A.J. Brown out of the lineup. Last week – sans Brown – Smith got a 34.5% target share, including two end zone targets. Smith is a top 10 wide receiver in Week 3.”

Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 3 of 2024 season

Matthew Berry breaks down his Love/Hate players for Week 3 and explains to fantasy managers why their seasons aren't over despite dealing with a rash of injuries.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[BreesusSaves]

Smith owners when he has 1 catch for 5 yards on 8 targets:

 

[Saintslfc13]

He's on my fantasy team and I've been thinking about benching him or Tyreek Hill for Smith-Njigba but more than likely I'm going to play them both. The other option is Keenan Allen but I really want no part of that Bears passing game at the moment, and I'm not sure he's even going to play. I don't expect much out of him vs our secondary but given he's their only receiver it's likely he gets opportunities and if the score through the air he's probably going to be the guy, they don't seem to throw much to Goedert for whatever reason.

Most fantasy gurus base their projections off of opportunities (target share, air yards, route run percentages, etc.) so it's not necessarily that they believe he'll be productive as that he will have the opportunity to be productive which given Brown's injury is probably true. Rhamondre Stevenson gave me a whopping .30 tonight in a matchup he was supposed to do well in so that goes to show you how these things can pan out, it's also why I can't really afford to bench guys who're their teams number one targets even in less than ideal situations.

 

[sammymvpknight]

You have to respect the volume. They have to throw it to someone and with Hurts owning the saints through his career, I understand the projection. I personally think that it’ll largely be Barkley and Hurts though.

 

[los226]

It’s simply that Brown is out so it means more targets for Smith and this game has the highest O/U of the week. It’s essentially a “safe” pick for Berry.

In fantasy you want to target volume and game environment.

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

Smith is good at finding space on broken plays. I think he'll get his due to Hurts being able to get some off script plays on us. But it won't be enough.

 

[St. Geezy]

Maybe he thinks Smith will get plenty of garbage time stats against a prevent defense when they’re down like 41-10 in the fourth quarter.

 

[efil4stnias]

You have to respect the volume. They have to throw it to someone and with Hurts owning the saints through his career, I understand the projection. I personally think that it’ll largely be Barkley and Hurts though.

define "own"?

Game 1 was 24-21 ( Taysom was QB )

Game 2 was 40-29 ( and our QB was Trevor Seimian )

He has a passer rating of 78.8 vs Saints - 314 yards in 2 games on 54 attempts ( 30 completed ) and our Run D is much more improved since our last matchup in 2021.

 

[Crusader Saint]

I have him and he will be on the bench. My two rules of fantasy, never draft a Falcon and bench anyone playing the Saints. I can't enjoy the game with a conflict of interest.

 

[St. Geezy]

I have him and he will be on the bench. My two rules of fantasy, never draft a Falcon and bench anyone playing the Saints. I can't enjoy the game with a conflict of interest.

This has been an off and on switch I’ve never had a problem with. I enjoy the hell out of FFL, with multiple teams for years, but never above the interests of my real life team.

I can easily make objective decisions on who to play if a player’s matchup against a bad Saints pass D back in the day for instance is favorable. But during the actual game, I couldn’t care less about my player and will easily actively root for him to be shut down like I normally would. Truthfully, there have been many times that once my lineup is set, I’m not even thinking about my FFL team during a Saints game, even if I have a player on the other team.

Guess I’m just built differently when it comes to that stuff.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

My question, how do we let this guy beat us with AJ Brown out and Marshon Lattimore seemingly back from injury? Oh and by the way, on the Ross Tucker podcast this week, film expert Greg Cosell said Alonte Taylor might be the best slot corner in the entire league. So..how does Berry’s prediction come true, or is this just hogwash? Does it happen while we are concentrating so hard on trying to stop their run? My guess is Berry is looking at numbers that reflect Taylor working into the slot corner role early last year that don’t necessarily indicate how well he is playing now. Here’s what Berry wrote this week:
“Instead, I want to talk about Eagles pass catcher DeVonta Smith taking on the Saints in a game that has Week 3’s second-highest game total at 49.5. Since the start of last season, the Saints are allowing the fifth-most yards per game to the slot, while Smith has seen 50% of his targets so far this season come in the slot. Smith will also continue to see a lot of extra work with A.J. Brown out of the lineup. Last week – sans Brown – Smith got a 34.5% target share, including two end zone targets. Smith is a top 10 wide receiver in Week 3.”

Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 3 of 2024 season

Matthew Berry breaks down his Love/Hate players for Week 3 and explains to fantasy managers why their seasons aren't over despite dealing with a rash of injuries.

www.nbcsports.com

Easy. If Hurt's is allowed to scramble all over the place I don't care how good Taylor or Lattimore are, they can't cover for 6-7 seconds w/ guys breaking routes unexpectedly because they see their QB outside of the pocket. As I noted in my post, secondary isn't going to win this game....it'll be how our front 7 plays.

If were missing tackles in the backfield, letting guys escape our grasp, unable to pull the QB down, not beind disciplined at DE during read options etc it's going to be a long day for the defense.

 

[sammymvpknight]

define "own"?

Game 1 was 24-21 ( Taysom was QB )

Game 2 was 40-29 ( and our QB was Trevor Seimian )

He has a passer rating of 78.8 vs Saints - 314 yards in 2 games on 54 attempts ( 30 completed ) and our Run D is much more improved since our last matchup in 2021.

Conveniently leaving out the rushing stats I see

 

[kcirdor]

He has a passer rating of 78.8 vs Saints - 314 yards in 2 games on 54 attempts ( 30 completed ) and our Run D is much more improved since our last matchup in 2021.

I don't believe our run defense has improved all that much, not against mobile QBs.

 

[la. champ1]

I’ll never count Devonta completely out but I don’t see that being a good pick for this week.

 

[BreesusSaves]

Conveniently leaving out the rushing stats I see

I think his point is the damage Hurts does to the Saints isn't with his arm, but with his legs?