NFL Draft My first and only and last Mock Draft (1 Viewer)

[DSnfla]

Silly take. He has plenty of elite traits which is why he finished the season with a higher quarterback rating then Cam Ward and Sanders, and out of the 3 was the only QB doing it against SEC defenses.

If we came away in this draft with Dart, Tre Harris, Amos and Kiser I would be doing back flips. Not sure on Gidden as an NFL RB. And while I really like Kiser in college, his low RAS gives me pause for the NFL. I can't help but wonder if Stutsman would be much better.

But overrall, awesome draft with loads of potential. The only way it could be better is if we somehow came away also with 2 of the following 3, Skattebo, Conely Jr (OT) or Mason Taylor/Luke Lachey

Well not according to Underhill , Skrmetta , and a few other draft pundits. And QB rating has nothing to do with if the QB has an elite trait or not. Maybe you can elaborate on what you think are Dart's elite traits

 

[3ParStillDriver]

Well not according to Underhill , Skrmetta , and a few other draft pundits. And QB rating has nothing to do with if the QB has an elite trait or not. Maybe you can elaborate on what you think are Dart's elite traits

I watched Sanders and Dart in real time for two years now. It's exactly how you can trace my postings going back to early January pre senior bowl about my thoughts on both of them. Keep in mind a few things.

• SEC defenses are far more talented then PAC-12, as are the coaches.
• SEC defenses run more disguises in their defense.
• Ole Miss's Oline was not good at all.

Here is a report that will help answer your question that articulates pretty well a lot of my thoughts. Dart Analysis

This part in particular is what I consider to be elite.

Three years later, the shape of the offense was generally the same, but with added complexity and wrinkles. In 2024, the Ole Miss offense employed more pre-snap movement, allowing Dart to read the defense as well as make adjustments at the line of scrimmage. It also featured more progression reads and asked Dart to read the full field. Where his helmet rarely shifted between reads as a sophomore, Dart was actively working through full-field progressions as a senior. Dart also showed improved eye discipline and an understanding of how to use his body language to manipulate defenders.

As a senior, Dart also showed evidence of relatively advanced processing within the structure of Kiffin’s scheme. The scheme often used concepts with multiple receivers at different levels in the same general area of the field. Dart seemed to use the tempo of his progression reads to force indecision in his opponents. There were multiple incidents of him seeming to focus on the underneath receiver, holding the corner and safety, and creating room for the deeper receiver.

And while Kiffin’s scheme does create open space for receivers, Dart grew in his ability to throw with anticipation and lead his receivers to the open field. In that way it incorporated some of the open-ended post-snap option aspects of the Run ‘n Shoot offense and demanded the quarterback and receivers be on the same page. That wouldn’t have been possible if Dart didn’t improve in his ability to diagnose the defense in both the pre and post-snap phases of the play.

This is exactly what I want in my QB. Someone who is showing ample amount of growth in pre-snap reads, putting his guys in position to succeed in audibles, hot routes etc, then being adaptable after the snap and manipulating defenders. That's exactly what is elite in college standards. Most QB's coming out of the draft can't or don't do this much anymore and have to learn it at the NFL level which often doesn't work out. And Dart did it with an offense that was lacking in talent. His Oline was below average. His WR's were below average with the exception of Tre Harris. And his RB's were average. The primary reason that offense was successful was because of Dart and his intangibles first and foremost. The second reason was because being a dual threat, defenses had to spy on him and spread (the spread part was also in part because of play calling) which helped set the RBs up for success. Dart quite literally carried that entire offense game in and game out and only really had Tre Harris to help. Where as Travis Hunter carried Colorado's offense with the help of Sanders. And while Cam Ward carried Miami, he had quite a bit of help from his RB Martinez, WR Restipro, TE Arroyo and OT Rivers and not even against SEC defenses/coaches.

Excessive manipulation of defenses and line of scrimmage changes is not something most QB's succeed at in college. Even Cam Ward did very little of this in comparison to Dart.

So why is Cam Ward a better prospect? Athleticism, Accuracy and Arm Strength. A coach who drafts Ward is hoping he can learn the intangibles that Dart has already proven to have. Some coaches don't care about this much and are willing to scheme around it. Ward showed signs of good intangibles, but its not as good as Darts yet. Meanwhile whoever drafts Dart is going to have to help him adjust to NFL style offenses which in itself is questionable, something Cam Ward is already comfortable in.

As for me, I personally find intangibles and teaching the ability to manipulate defenders the hardest thing in football. And doing it at the NFL level rarely works out and is why so many QB's bust in the NFL. And intangibles is exactly what made Drew Brees who he was, as well as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

So if you're to ask me who has the highest floor at QB in this draft, its Dart. The biggest problem is that if you were also to ask me who had the lowest floor out of Ward, Sanders and Dart, its also Dart. Which is why what coach he goes to is so important and I believe Kellen Moore is one of the best coaches he could end up under and why I believe he's the best fit for the Saints. Other coaches he would be great under are Sean McVay and Kevin O'Connell.

And if you don't think the media isn't manipulating, then consider this. Dart showed better in pre-snap reads and in defensive manipulations and far more often then Sanders, yet the media is hyping up Sanders for it as his best attribute and completely quite about Darts. This is one of the few reasons I expect Dart to be QB2 off the board. Most coaches in the NFL will catch this.

 

[sammymvpknight]

Trey Harris is a really good WR…and I could easily see him being picked if we get Dart. It would make some sense.

I don’t want a DE or WR in the first round without a trade down, but they are both deep positions. Going BPA in the 1st followed by DE round 2, WR round 3, and RB round 4 is probably going to field a pretty good draft class. Truthfully, outside of Carter, Jeanty, and Hunter…I can’t say that the players we’d get beyond round 1 at those three positions would be worse than the guy we get at #9. It’s exactly why you should either draft up or down unless there is very compelling evidence that a guy like the three mentioned before or Warren/Graham falls

 

[Treybad]

Ole Miss fan ir alum lol Dart at 9 makes this draft horribly bad

 

[Sailorsaint]

I'm going to be very disappointed if we pick a QB in the first two rounds. Or even in the third. Go with what we have this year. Evaluate. Then try for a QB next year in a class that is much better than the one coming out this year. Actually, though, from all the glowing reports I've seen about other coaches really liking Rattler, you either go with him after this year, or you trade him to someone that really wants him and use that draft capital to go after who you really want.

 

[SonOfNOLA]

Silly take. He has plenty of elite traits which is why he finished the season with a higher quarterback rating then Cam Ward and Sanders, and out of the 3 was the only QB doing it against SEC defenses.

If we came away in this draft with Dart, Tre Harris, Amos and Kiser I would be doing back flips. Not sure on Gidden as an NFL RB. And while I really like Kiser in college, his low RAS gives me pause for the NFL. I can't help but wonder if Stutsman would be much better.

But overrall, awesome draft with loads of potential. The only way it could be better is if we somehow came away also with 2 of the following 3, Skattebo, Conely Jr (OT) or Mason Taylor/Luke Lachey

Dart’s QBR was inflated by the weakest stretch imaginable during his first 4 weeks.
3-8 Furman FCS, 3-9 Middle Tennessee State, 4-8 Wake Forest and 8-5 Georgia Southern FCS.

A rushing QB with a lot of deep passes and little to no turnovers should have a higher QBR.
On the other hand, after that 4 week stretch, Dart’s Passer Rating was 164.3. Sanders’ was 173.6. Ward’s was 172.56, including the 1H played in the bowl game.

35% of Dart’s passing yards came off of deep ball. 36.3% of his overall passing yards were in the first 4 weeks against weak teams. He has big throw ability and great rushing talent. But lacks a consistent passing profile in the short-middle ranges a lot to be considered a top 10 pick. He has below average passing production once the deep ball is taken away. 4 win Kentucky and 2 win Miss State were able to limit him in the air. In the SC and LSU games, it took a couple big throws to raise Dart’s yards up on 52-57 comp %. It looks like the difference between ‘23 and ‘24 were more FCS teams and other weak P5 teams on the schedule to put up big #s on.

He’s a QB who has to be schemed around instead of a QB who fits any type of pass scheme, which could be hit or miss. He could potentially project to not be a starter until his 3rd season. Or at least not be an effective passer until then which is a gamble for a new HC to ride on with a top 10 pick.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

Dart’s QBR was inflated by the weakest stretch imaginable during his first 4 weeks.
3-8 Furman FCS, 3-9 Middle Tennessee State, 4-8 Wake Forest and 8-5 Georgia Southern FCS.

A rushing QB with a lot of deep passes and no turnovers should have a higher QBR.
On the other hand, after that 4 week stretch, Dart’s Passer Rating was 164.3. Sanders’ was 173.6. Ward’s was 172.56, including the 1H played in the bowl game.

35% of Dart’s passing yards came off of deep ball. 36.3% of his overall passing yards were in the first 4 weeks against weak teams. He has big throw ability and great rushing talent. But lacks a consistent passing profile in the short-middle ranges a lot to be considered a top 10 pick. He has below average passing production once the deep ball is taken away. 4 win Kentucky and 2 win Miss State were able to limit him in the air. In the SC and LSU games, it took a couple big throws to raise Dart’s yards up on 52-57 comp %. It looks like the difference between ‘23 and ‘24 were more FCS teams and other weak P5 teams on the schedule to put up big #s on.

He’s a QB who has to be schemed around instead of a QB who fits any type of pass scheme, which could be hit or miss. He could potentially project to not be a starter until his 3rd season. Or at least not be an effective passer until then which is a gamble for a new HC to ride on with a top 10 pick.

Your bashing Darts competition for 4 weeks when Sanders played against KU, KState and the embarrassing defenses of PAC-12 while still completing around half his passes to the LOS.

No. Just no. That’s not even close to a logical argument.

 

[SonOfNOLA]

Your bashing Darts competition for 4 weeks when Sanders played against KU, KState and the embarrassing defenses of PAC-12 while still completing around half his passes to the LOS.

No. Just no. That’s not even close to a logical argument.

Sanders is elite in off-target ball placement of those supposed 5 yard LOS passes while Dart appears hit or miss in that range. That area of the fields runs the offense and is scheme-based. Colorado OC Shurmur ran a short-intermediate pass offense. Sanders didn’t play Pac-12 in ‘24. 5 Pac-12 teams were ranked in ‘23.

Orlovsky’s soundbite about the LOS doesn’t change Dart’s stats being inflated by Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern. That’s a lot of I-AA level competition to begin a season. Which is irony as weaker non-FBS competition was an assumption on Sanders while he didn’t play any FCS schools as Colorado QB in ‘23 & ‘24. Dart played 3, and a lot of 2 to 5 win teams, in that span.

You’re basing QBR as the reason to draft Dart at 9 when it’s not a concrete QB impact stat. It’s factoring in throw distance, rush yards and sacks, which isn’t always based on the QB. It’s not indicating much other than a measure of many combined non-QB stats which doesn’t determine if they’re a good passer.

 

[Linchpinoutdoors]

The reality is there are no quarterbacks in this draft that scream elite or worth a first round grade... You don't select a QB this year. The risk is not worth the reward this year

 

[SonOfNOLA]

The reality is there are no quarterbacks in this draft that scream elite or worth a first round grade... You don't select a QB this year. The risk is not worth the reward this year

There’s 1 elite QB in Ward. A pro-ready day 1 starter in Sanders. And a starter in Dart who could be schemed to his playmaking strengths while he improves as a complete passer.

Next year’s class isn’t really stacked with elite QBs. Arch likely stays at Texas. There’s no guarantee the Saints will be inside the top 10 again to get Iamaleava, Sellers or Allar. Its also still to be determined if any of those QBs are elite prospects. This year is the closest chance they’ve had to land their coveted QB.

 

[DSnfla]

There’s 1 elite QB in Ward. A pro-ready day 1 starter in Sanders. And a starter in Dart who could be schemed to his playmaking strengths while he improves as a complete passer.

Next year’s class isn’t really stacked with elite QBs. Arch likely stays at Texas. There’s no guarantee the Saints will be inside the top 10 again to have a shot at Iamaleava, Sellers and Allar next year. This year is their closest chance they’ve had to land their coveted QB.

I gotta disagree with you on next yrs QB class. Yes Arch will stay @ UT. but I think there are a few that can easily have a breakout yr much like Burrow and Daniels did. Just as much as Ward did this yr . Klubnik, Mateer, King along with those you mentioned. I also like Avery Johnson to turn a corner.

With 6 teams drafting QBs in the 1st rd last yr and more than likely 2 in the 1st this yr we don't really need to draft in the top 10. Those teams will likely be drafting high next yr and not looking to take a QB so if we draft around 15-18 we could easily get a franchise QB mid 1st rd . And if there a guy we like a lot trading up would cost a lot less

 

[SonOfNOLA]

I gotta disagree with you on next yrs QB class. Yes Arch will stay @ UT. but I think there are a few that can easily have a breakout yr much like Burrow and Daniels did. Just as much as Ward did this yr . Klubnik, Mateer, King along with those you mentioned. I also like Avery Johnson to turn a corner.

With 6 teams drafting QBs in the 1st rd last yr and more than likely 2 in the 1st this yr we don't really need to draft in the top 10. Those teams will likely be drafting high next yr and not looking to take a QB so if we draft around 15-18 we could easily get a franchise QB mid 1st rd . And if there a guy we like a lot trading up would cost a lot less

Next year’s QB class does look deeper in potential starting caliber QB talent. I see a lot of potential day 1-day 2 picks. That can be a big plus to have many to choose from in the middle 1st. But possibly bad to not have a strong QB prospect to feel good about being a big difference maker.

You’re right about some having breakout years. Outside of Arch, the current production of practically all of them doesn’t really scream franchise QBs right now.

 

[DSnfla]

Next year’s QB class does look deeper in potential starting caliber QB talent. I see a lot of potential day 1-day 2 picks. That can be a big plus to have many to choose from in the middle 1st. But possibly bad to not have a strong QB prospect to feel good about being a big difference maker.

You’re right about some having breakout years. Outside of Arch, the current production of practically all of them doesn’t really scream franchise QBs right now.

I'm going to say 4 QBs picked in the 1st next yr

 

[saintmike23]

Nussmeier could also have a year that pushes him up the board. But without Arch declaring I would say it looks like another mediocre year.
lol
I made a post about Allar this year that got a mixed reception. There’s going to be at least 5 QB needy teams in the top 15 just like every year.

The Rams for example will need a young QB soon.

The Saints are doing the research HARD this year to get KM’s reign off to a good start.