Not sure what 97L is going to do. It's in a sheared environment heading into an even worse environment over the next couple of days. But near the end of the weekend, there's a good chance that the SE Gulf or somewhere around the Florida peninsula will be seeing a deepening system. There are other things that have to happen first, and there are no guarantees. But here is what probably is going to happen based on the way things look today:
TD #13 (future Tropical Storm Lorenzo) is sitting in the Gulf of Mexico. It's going to move south, southwest or west into Mexico after spinning down in the Bay of Campeche for a few of days. This could even become a hurricane.
98L (invest off of Southern Florida) is probably going to get picked up by a front/trough this weekend and run up the east coast.
Tropical Storm Karen is going to be a fish spinner, but it may get caught by high pressure building in from the SE post-coldfront and could come back west for a while.
Meanwhile, underneath, 97L will move to a position somewhere near Cuba or Florida with a ridge/cold high building in overtop. This is a classic development pattern underneath. There's a fairly good chance that if it gets going, 97L could become pretty strong. It isn't going to get to Cat 4 or 5, because it's probably too late in the season for anything to get that strong in the Gulf. But it could still become a substantial hurricane and threaten Florida or the Northcentral/Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
You can find a link to 97L at the Naval Research Lab by clicking the link below:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Also, here's the Goes 12 Hurricane Sector IR Link. Look over toward the islands of Hispanola or Puerto Rico.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
That's all we've got until probably Friday when the models start picking up on it a little more as the other systems get out of the way.
TPS
TD #13 (future Tropical Storm Lorenzo) is sitting in the Gulf of Mexico. It's going to move south, southwest or west into Mexico after spinning down in the Bay of Campeche for a few of days. This could even become a hurricane.
98L (invest off of Southern Florida) is probably going to get picked up by a front/trough this weekend and run up the east coast.
Tropical Storm Karen is going to be a fish spinner, but it may get caught by high pressure building in from the SE post-coldfront and could come back west for a while.
Meanwhile, underneath, 97L will move to a position somewhere near Cuba or Florida with a ridge/cold high building in overtop. This is a classic development pattern underneath. There's a fairly good chance that if it gets going, 97L could become pretty strong. It isn't going to get to Cat 4 or 5, because it's probably too late in the season for anything to get that strong in the Gulf. But it could still become a substantial hurricane and threaten Florida or the Northcentral/Northeast Gulf of Mexico.
You can find a link to 97L at the Naval Research Lab by clicking the link below:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Also, here's the Goes 12 Hurricane Sector IR Link. Look over toward the islands of Hispanola or Puerto Rico.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
That's all we've got until probably Friday when the models start picking up on it a little more as the other systems get out of the way.
TPS
/some selfcongrats
