Odds of Rizzi Getting Permanent Job and, If So, What Type of Contract (19 Viewers)

[RJ in Lafayette]

Two (or actually three) questions that should stimulate some discussion:

First, what are the odds of Rizzi being named the team's permanent head coach? Second, if the Saints have an interest, what type of contract should they offer Rizzi, and what type of contract would he accept?

Preface the discussion by saying that Loomis is going nowhere, unless he decides to step into another role in the Benson organization. Were I the owner, we would have a new general manager. He is 68, is far too secure in his job, and has made terrible decisions since Payton's departure. But in this organization, he is going nowhere.

Given my assumption, Loomis has to decide on what strategic direction the team wishes to go in. Does he believe that, absent injuries, we are a playoff-contending team and will generally maintain the status quo with a nod to getting younger? Or do we truly rebuild? My belief is that we will pursue the former approach. If so, Rizzi will be seriously considered for the permanent job. But given the many variables, I will say Rizzo's chances of getting the permanent job are in the 25 to 30 percent range. And of course, a factor will be how many of the highly sought-after head-coach candidates are interested in the Saints job.

Next, if the Saints are interested in Rizzo, what type of contract should they offer him? I do not have the numbers, but I have seen too many times where the interim coach has won games after he was named head coach, the players endorse him, he gets named permanent head coach, and thereafter he does poorly. If the Saints want to see more of Rizzi, they may offer something like a two-year contract, providing financial security to Rizzi but allowing the Saints to go in a different direction after 2025 if he gets the job and the team disappoints.

Would he accept it? It is likely his one shot at being head coach next year. I do not see the other teams that will be looking for a head coach seriously considering Rizzi because of his age and a likely lackluster response to his getting the job. If the Saints are his only option, he should say yes.

 

[SweetT]

Odds of Rizzi getting the job is at 50/50.
That’s all we know as of now.
“IF” he gets the job. He will probably get a contract somewhere in the bottom half of HCs or in the top half of HCs. Once again, both options would be at 50/50 odds
Hope this helps.
I will say this, I am really impressed with how Rizzi has taken the reigns at being the man. I didn’t see that coming

 

[jasonsw]

Odds of Rizzi getting the job is at 50/50.
That’s all we know as of now.
“IF” he gets the job. He will probably get a contract somewhere in the bottom half of HCs or in the top half of HCs. Once again, both options would be at 50/50 odds
Hope this helps.
I will say this, I am really impressed with how Rizzi has taken the reigns at being the man. I didn’t see that coming

Yeah what happens that next 3 games will determine alot, if Saints play GB and T Tampa tight, beat LVR. Then I think.he gets it.

I don't think.Loomis is going anywhere. It just seems like there would be smoke if it were the case. You don't even really see people on here calling for his head anymore

 

[Saint Greg]

I think he has to beat the packers to have a serious shot so I’m going to say low odds….10%. 3-4 years 4-5mil/year if he did get the job.

 

[SweetT]

Yeah what happens that next 3 games will determine alot, if Saints play GB and T Tampa tight, beat LVR. Then I think.he gets it.

I don't think.Loomis is going anywhere. It just seems like there would be smoke if it were the case. You don't even really see people on here calling for his head anymore

Loomis’ job is in tact. Shouldn’t be, but it is, or sure seems like it

 

[NatureBoy]

I'd say Rizzi has a 1 in 10 shot. If the Saints hadn't recently turned to hiring from within (unsuccessfully), I'd say his chances might be better. I get the feeling there is a need to sweep clean. Because they've only been in place 1 season, I say Kubiak and the offensive coaches may stay in place, but I don't see the top job going to a holdover.

Unfortunately, I don't think Loomis is going anywhere. He bought extra time by putting Allen in place and passing the blame along to him.

As for Rizzi, of course he'd accept it if it were offered. What other NFL HC options would he have?

 

[jasonsw]

Two (or actually three) questions that should stimulate some discussion:

First, what are the odds of Rizzi being named the team's permanent head coach? Second, if the Saints have an interest, what type of contract should they offer Rizzi, and what type of contract would he accept?

Preface the discussion by saying that Loomis is going nowhere, unless he decides to step into another role in the Benson organization. Were I the owner, we would have a new general manager. He is 68, is far too secure in his job, and has made terrible decisions since Payton's departure. But in this organization, he is going nowhere.

Given my assumption, Loomis has to decide on what strategic direction the team wishes to go in. Does he believe that, absent injuries, we are a playoff-contending team and will generally maintain the status quo with a nod to getting younger? Or do we truly rebuild? My belief is that we will pursue the former approach. If so, Rizzi will be seriously considered for the permanent job. But given the many variables, I will say Rizzo's chances of getting the permanent job are in the 25 to 30 percent range. And of course, a factor will be how many of the highly sought-after head-coach candidates are interested in the Saints job.

Next, if the Saints are interested in Rizzo, what type of contract should they offer him? I do not have the numbers, but I have seen too many times where the interim coach has won games after he was named head coach, the players endorse him, he gets named permanent head coach, and thereafter he does poorly. If the Saints want to see more of Rizzi, they may offer something like a two-year contract, providing financial security to Rizzi but allowing the Saints to go in a different direction after 2025 if he gets the job and the team disappoints.

Would he accept it? It is likely his one shot at being head coach next year. I do not see the other teams that will be looking for a head coach seriously considering Rizzi because of his age and a likely lackluster response to his getting the job. If the Saints are his only option, he should say yes.

I think the contract scenario you laid out is fair for both sides. If he succeeds, he gets a new contract quickly. If not Saints can pivot.

What's important is the team drafts well and gives the offense some much needed fire power. The lack.of investment in offensive weapons for the past many years is laughable. The Saints keep on throwing 1st round draft picks on lineman.

They have 3 first rounders and a second rounder in McCoy who was the Saints first pick in the 19 draft. No team in the NFL has that much draft investment in thier line.

 

[SuperSaint]

Had they pulled out the Commanders win, I would have said his odds were about 70%.

Now, they need a good showing against the Packers, but there are so many things going against them, it could get ugly.

 

[Saint Greg]

I say Kubiak and the offensive coaches may stay in place, but I don't see the top job going to a holdover.

How does that work? You hire a defensive head coach and tell him he can’t pick his own staff? That won’t happen. Same for the people who want Rizzi to stay on as ST coach. Won’t happen.

 

[NatureBoy]

How does that work? You hire a defensive head coach and tell him he can’t pick his own staff? That won’t happen. Same for the people who want Rizzi to stay on as ST coach. Won’t happen.

All I'm saying is that IF a new HC would want to keep some holdovers, they would most likely be the offensive crew, which wouldn't exactly have the "hold over" feel. They aren't directly attached to Sean and were DA's second group that only had 1 year and a bunch of injuries to deal with. I'm fine with a new HC coming in and starting completely over, too.

 

[SaintKenn]

"No team in the NFL has that much draft investment in thier line."

For such a low return

 

[DSnfla]

How does that work? You hire a defensive head coach and tell him he can’t pick his own staff? That won’t happen. Same for the people who want Rizzi to stay on as ST coach. Won’t happen.

Why not? 1st it's not unheard of to have an incoming HC retain an OC or DC especially when the incoming HC has never run an offense or defense at the NFL or major college level. He's never even hired an offensive or defensive staff at this level. There is nothing to go on to say if he's a good talent evaluator or not.

That said I think he has about a 20% chance at getting the job no matter what happens the rest of the way. While ML is not on the hot seat if he does not get this next HC hire right he won't be GM anymore. He might get moved to a different position but if this next HC hire is not and out of the park hit he won't make the next one. It's not like " I'll hire Rizzi and if he does not work out I'll hire someone else"

That's why I don't think Rizzi gets the job. Plus interim HC that become full time HCs have very little success afterward

 

[Saint Greg]

All I'm saying is that IF a new HC would want to keep some holdovers, they would most likely be the offensive crew, which wouldn't exactly have the "hold over" feel. They aren't directly attached to Sean and were DA's second group that only had 1 year and a bunch of injuries to deal with. I'm fine with a new HC coming in and starting completely over, too.

I just can’t think of a time that a coach has come in and kept a staff like that. You see it in college because of recruiting…but not in the NFL. The only way I see these coaches staying is if Rizzi gets the job.

 

[Boot 2Da Head]

Proud of what this Rizz has accomplished. It’s been a really tough season to watch. I hate the feeling of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Ownership and management owe it to the fans to conduct a proper coaching search. Shoot your shot to get the best coach you can find. If you have to settle for Rizz, I guess we’ll see. Could be worse, Dennis could still be here. I want to see how we finish out and I’m super curious about Rattler.

 

[NatureBoy]

I just can’t think of a time that a coach has come in and kept a staff like that. You see it in college because of recruiting…but not in the NFL. The only way I see these coaches staying is if Rizzi gets the job.

Not all young coaches have a rolodex (for the lack of a more modern term) of assistants on standby. I assume we'll either hire a guy like Vrabel, who will have some guys he can turn to, or a very young coach getting his first shot. That type of coach, especially if he were a defensive minded coach, might think Kubiak and his crew are a better option than what he has access too.

Nevertheless, it's a secondary discussion. the bigger point was that I don't think Rizzi lands the top job because we feel the need to move away from a holdover at the top of the coaching organization.