5th year option deadline for Olave/Penning is May 1st

[Snakehead]

This is a great example about why you wait on players before deciding on their future.

After their rookie season, this question would have been extend/pick up Olave's 5th y/o and kick Penning to the curb. Now it's almost the opposite due to Olave's concussion issues and Penning's continued development.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

I don't think Olave really wants another year with the possibility of having Carr throw to him. Last year's concussion and having his family blame Carr on social media doesn't mesh well. Trade him now.
I would also consider moving on from Penning. He still can't stop a fast DE in pass protection.

Something to consider. I don't know what family would go on social media blaming the QB if the brother who's a WR talked positive of that QB. For his family to do that, Olave himself is likely negative on Carr in hushed circles. Then add to the fact that Carr has thrown only 1 ball to him that led to a concussion (or was it two?) out of how many? 5 or 6? 3 or 4 of his concussions came from college. Throw in Mike Thomas openly declaring his thoughts on Carr, and we suddenly begin to see a trend. Then there's the fight with McCoy that occurred and now we're seeing a very concerning, consistent trend.

I was really high on Carr coming here. Not because I thought he was world class or anything. But I believed he could've been a good leader with above average skills. It seems (at least to me) that its obvious he's not a leader, possibly even a bit toxic. Certainly, unwilling to be the face of this franchise. And still to this day, I can't think of him without remember that play he threw to Olave on the sidelines that went over Olave's head, while Taysom Hill was open and the play was for him to be read #1. After the pass went over Olave's head and was uncatchable, Carr went off openly on the field on Olave.

I'm just seeing a massive lack of leadership from Carr, and the Mike Thomas social media comments, Olave's family social media comments and the massive fight with his center mid field, then massive fight with Olave mid field...... just thinking on it and listing it all out really makes me want to move on from Carr. Let him follow Dennis Allen around or something.

 

[SWJJ]

I vote give both a 3 year extension at a better AAV compared to their true value.

Olave may feel he deserves too much money and may not be interested in an extension less than the 5th year option value, if that's the case, trade him.

 

[Chuck McGill Esq.]

I would decline to offer both. If they have breakout years and want to leave in free agency for rich contracts that we don't want to match, take the compensatory picks. If they have relatively mediocre seasons, we have the leverage in negotiating new contracts.

 

[saintmike23]

Olave yes. You take that bc he could have a big year in KM’s offense

 

[MikeyF]

I don't think Olave really wants another year with the possibility of having Carr throw to him. Last year's concussion and having his family blame Carr on social media doesn't mesh well. Trade him now.
I would also consider moving on from Penning. He still can't stop a fast DE in pass protection.

Olave medical problems are deeper than Derek Carr...
He has played more games with Carr that any other QB since his first reported head injury in 2020.
His family using Carr as an escape-goat is nothing more than a distraction.

Sunday Nov 3, 2024 Derek Carr
Sunday Oct 13, 2024 Spencer Rattler
Sunday Nov 26, 2023 Derek Carr
Sunday Oct 9, 2022 Andy Dalton
Saturday Oct. 24, 2020 Justin Fields

I do agree with trading him.

 

[Snakehead]

Olave medical problems are deeper than Derek Carr...
He has played more games with Carr that any other QB since his first reported head injury in 2020.
His family using Carr as an escape-goat is nothing more than a distraction.

Sunday Nov 3, 2024 Derek Carr
Sunday Oct 13, 2024 Spencer Rattler
Sunday Nov 26, 2023 Derek Carr
Sunday Oct 9, 2022 Andy Dalton
Saturday Oct. 24, 2020 Justin Fields

I do agree with trading him.

You are correct. His family blaming Carr is a distraction for the real issue. They/he is using deflection and distraction to hide the real issue and the real issue is blatantly obvious, but nobody wants to admit it.

His head will not allow him to have a long career. At some point whether it's this year or in the future, concussions will more than likely end his career. He can retire and hope for no long-term issues like some players have done by retiring early, or he can play on and be forced into retirement or worse. It's not a good situation at all.

 

[TribuneUK]

For all the popular talk involving an Olave trade of some kind (across multiple threads), his medicals, the impending end of his rookie deal and the depth of this draft at WR suggest he'll net minimal return for any such trade. It's not his draft status as a #1 that will be on the minds of GMs making a call, by any means. The more attractive option may be to wait for the compensatory pick, whether after his rookie deal, or after his second contract.

Olave is an elite separator, dogged by fans who are easily frustrated by players like him, who don't show the iron man invincibility they expect from their gladiators, but he may still produce a lot of worthwhile snaps here or elsewhere. A new contract probably needs to be loaded with incentives to reflect his status as such.

Penning feels like someone the team will look to retain, whether they tag him while working out the cheaper mid-term deal, or negotiating that deal before May comes. His future is at tackle, as those with any knowledge of the OT/OG position have repeated many times. The draft's depth in OTs able to transition to guard give the team options to develop the next man up at RT if Penning doesn't sufficiently pan out over the next 2-3 years, or to leave them at OG accordingly.

 

[rlemieux]

Anyone wanting to give Penning 17 million a year is crazy. There is absolutely zero chance that his option is picked up, less than zero.

Olave at least has talent but injuries almost prevent you from picking that option up.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

No on Olave, concussions.

No on Penning, attempt to extend at a lower rate.

 

[St. Widge]

Penning -
Not everyone lives up to draft status early in their career. Many players need a few years to develop. Sometimes they need a good coaching staff.
Penning looked much better this past year and his arrow looks to be pointed upward.
Wouldn't you hate if he left here after we developed him and he turned into a very solid RT for the next 10 years for someone else?

I'd hate just about as much if we gave him a 5 year $100 million contract and he reverted to being the player he was before last year or never got better than he was last year. He's a good run blocker, but he still has major issues as a pass blocker, not to mention way too many penalties, which results in having to keep TEs and RBs in to help him with chips or even take the assignment against the other team's Edge when in pass protection. So, I think it's a position that really needs to be upgraded and I'd hate to have to give him a contract for $15 to $20 million AAV given that he has only had one average year as a RT.

If they can't draft an upgrade, my hope is that they can work out a 2 year deal in the $10 to $15 million range so they can see if he really is going to develop or not.

So, I'd probably decline the option and then try to work out a 2 year extension with him in the $10 to $15 million range while looking to upgrade the position in the next 2 to 3 years.

 

[St. Widge]

As far as Olave, if you can get a good offer for him trade him, but I doubt anyone is going to offer more than a 5th at this point. If DK Metcalf is only worth a 2nd and Deebo is only worth a 5th then Olave can't be worth more than a 5th right now given his injury history.

If that's the case, you have to pick up the 5th year option and see how his health is this year. One year of Olave is worth more than a 5th round pick and if he stays healthy then you can decide if you want to extend him or trade him.

If he gets hurt again, all you have lost is a 5th round or later pick and having him on the team this year with the possibility that he improves his trade value is more valuable than a 5th round pick IMO.

 

[Snakehead]

As far as Olave, if you can get a good offer for him trade him, but I doubt anyone is going to offer more than a 5th at this point. If DK Metcalf is only worth a 2nd and Deebo is only worth a 5th then Olave can't be worth more than a 5th right now given his injury history.

If that's the case, you have to pick up the 5th year option and see how his health is this year. One year of Olave is worth more than a 5th round pick and if he stays healthy then you can decide if you want to extend him or trade him.

If he get hurt again, all you have lost is a 5th round or later pick and having him on the team this year with the possibility that he improves his trade value is more valuable than a 5th round pick IMO.

This is a good argument against trading Olave. DK and Deebo aren't good trade comps. DK was due a huge pay day so that decreased his value some, but for a player who is on his way to 10K+ yards and probably 80+ TDs, that was a good deal. Deebo is injury riddled, high paid and older so a 5th is about right. Olave is young and still on his rookie contract, there's value in that. His concussion issues are a huge problem.

If he's worth a 5th on the the trade market, you keep him like you stated above. That makes sense.

If he's worth a 3rd or higher on the trade market, trade him. There are players in the draft who can replace his production (now that we have Shaheed and Cooks) who can be drafted in the 3rd.

I don't envy the FO on having to deal with the Olave situation.

 

[sfidc3]

I say no to Olave, problem is I don't think he has much trade value either, other teams are well aware of his concussion injury.....just a sucky situation....

I think we can get Penning for less as well....

 

[livefromDC]

That's a tough one. I think the Olave issue will take care of itself soon enough. I think he's traded before or during the draft.

As far as Penning, the new staff has a very mixed bag of results to work with while evaluating him. However, as someone said earlier, the needle is definitely trending up. He's not worth the 5th year tender amount, but he's not likely a cut bait candidate after the 2025 season. I honestly think the team will take the same approach it did with Ruiz. They will try to extend Penning before the season starts.

Ruiz, who was selected by the Saints with the 24th pick of the 2020 NFL draft, did not have his fifth-year option picked up in May 2024. His fifth-year option would have counted $14.1 million against the 2024 salary cap if it had been picked up. Instead, The Saints signed Cesar Ruiz to a four-year extension, worth up to $44 million, including $18 million guaranteed. I know people didn't like the deal, but for a starter, it's what we should expect.

Penning is set to cost close to $17 million against the cap next year if the fifth-year option is picked up. The Saints will politely pass and try to work out a long term deal. Why? For the same reason they did with Ruiz. The 5th year deal is great if the player turns into a pro-bowler. That's one more year you have to get the player a somewhat reasonable rate for a pro-bowl talent. That would be the Olave situation if he didn't have the concussions. But since there hasn't been that type of on-field return so far from Penning, picking up the 5th year doesn't really make sense. In this case, the savings is in securing the rights for an adequate player in a long term deal in the hopes that they continue to develop or can be traded after finding a better replacement. In either of these scenarios you're using an extension to entice the player to stay for a 5th year while taking a lower cap hit. It's a win-win. It's a practical solution to a roster management dilemma. This is why I didn't have a problem with the Ruiz extension and why I won't have a problem with the eventual Penning extension (given the new staff views him as at the very least an adequate starter).

5th year options allow teams an extra year to negotiate with their drafted players, who will command above average market value prices on the open market, while paying them today's average market value price for the best players at that position. Penning doesn't fit this category...but he's still young with starting capability. And that's why you extend him. You're paying him according to today's market value. And this is important. He has no pro-bowls, but he's a starter. Penning will be offered a contract based on today's average market value and NOT the average of the 3rd to 20th highest paid players who play Right Tackle. This is what the 5th year option would be based on for a player with Penning's snap count. He's not in that group and you don't want to pay him as if he's in the that group. BUT...at the same time, he's a young starter who could very well elevate into that group. Extend him and hope he outplays his contract. If he doesn't you can cut him after the next season. Extensions don't always mean the team loves a player. Sometimes it's just a numbers game. I'll skip the salary cap component but it should be easy to see how this helps both the cap and roster management purposes.