Rating QBs by defensive performance (1 Viewer)

[Cincy Saint]

I heard about this analysis related to Cutler's performance. How good is a QB when you look at the defense that he played with? On this board, we often talk about "if only the D held a team under 30", Brees would win almost every game. Is it really true?

Check out this interesting analysis on Pro Football Reference.

The good news for Saints fans -- Brees is one of the better QBs in the modern era when looking at his win/loss percentage and comparing it to his defense's ability.

The bad news -- the analysis lists Archie as the worst QB of all time.

Let the discussion begin.

 

[Sophandros]

Here's a better analysis: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1868

Similar results, but more robust.

Sadly, I'm certain that is going over a lot of people's heads and/or they will draw the wrong conclusions from the data.

 

[saintmike23]

Brees has played exactly 50 games with the Saints including the playoffs. Here are his numbers with the Saints. I'm not sure how the author calculated expected wins so the differential category here is not the same as in the article.

The striking numbers are in the 26+ points categories. We have played 21 games where the opponent has scored 26 points or more in 3 years and we have only won three of those games.

We have only lost 2 games when the opponent scores 20 points or fewer. And only 6 games when the opponent scores 25 points and under.

 

[JackDiesel]

The striking numbers are in the 26+ points categories. We have played 21 games where the opponent has score 26 points or more in 3 years and we have only won three of those games.

We have only lost 2 games when the opponent scores 20 points or fewer. And only 6 games when the opponent scores 25 points and under.

THE STAT OF THE OFFSEASON!

2 of those 3 wins came this season, against the Chargers and against the Packers.

I understand the running game argument but the fact is its impossible to win a game when your defense gives up 26 points a game.

 

[saintmike23]

I went back to the article and figured out the numbers. Here are the complete numbers based off the formula in the article. It's noteworthy to point out that Brees has 5.8 of his 7.3 wins above expected wins with the Saints. Also, these are more indicative of the entire offenses' production than of Brees himself as it is for any one QB on the list. So to say that Manning was horrible you have to also account for his offense.

The Expected win% and Expected wins are for average QB's. The Exp. wins column here is for the number of games Brees played and not how many games he won.

Notice that Brees and the offense performed best in the 21 to 25 range. Of course with more opponents held to lower points those differentials will increase. (Given the same winning pct.)

 

[Sophandros]

I went back to the article and figured out the numbers. Here are the complete numbers based off the formula in the article. It's noteworthy to point out that Brees has 5.8 of his 7.3 wins above expected wins with the Saints. Also, these are more indicative of the entire offenses' production than of Brees himself as it is for any one QB on the list. So to say that Manning was horrible you have to also account for his offense.

The Expected win% and Expected wins are for average QB's. The Exp. wins column here is for the number of games Brees played and not how many games he won.

Notice that Brees and the offense performed best in the 21 to 25 range. Of course with more opponents held to lower points those differentials will increase.

Since you have time on your hands, click on the link in my first post on this thread and check out the added wins stat. I think that is more complete analysis.

 

[saintmike23]

Since you have time on your hands, click on the link in my first post on this thread and check out the added wins stat. I think that is more complete analysis.

Yeah just read it. That was brilliant. Brees is ranked 31st all time at +8.1 wins added. But I imagine that he will climb up this list with more time unless our defense gets enormously better.

 

[BigDSaintsFan]

I heard about this analysis related to Cutler's performance. How good is a QB when you look at the defense that he played with? On this board, we often talk about "if only the D held a team under 30", Brees would win almost every game. Is it really true?

Check out this interesting analysis on Pro Football Reference.

The good news for Saints fans -- Brees is one of the better QBs in the modern era when looking at his win/loss percentage and comparing it to his defense's ability.

The bad news -- the analysis lists Archie as the worst QB of all time.

Let the discussion begin.

Well in this case the numbers don't lie. If a defense can hold an offense to 20 points and under, you have a chance to win a lot of games. In 1992 the defense allowed 12.6 points per game. We were 12-4.

 

[bergeaux]

Brees has played exactly 50 games with the Saints including the playoffs. Here are his numbers with the Saints. I'm not sure how the author calculated expected wins so the differential category here is not the same as in the article.

The striking numbers are in the 26+ points categories. We have played 21 games where the opponent has scored 26 points or more in 3 years and we have only won three of those games.

We have only lost 2 games when the opponent scores 20 points or fewer. And only 6 games when the opponent scores 25 points and under.

That's a pretty good statistic. Usually if you can keep the opponent under 12 or 13 points a game, you're locked in. If we can keep them under 20 points a game, we have a rock solid chance of winning.

In the last four years that's between 10th and 15th in the league in defensive scoring:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...sonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...sonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...sonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...sonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

In fact, in 2006 we were 13th in the league with 20.1 allowed average. Hmmmmm

 

[City Champ]

so if we get a defense, we win the super bowl...
i understand completely!

 

[Furious One]

What a bunch of CRAP!!! Why do they put it solely on the QB? What about the other 10 guys on the field? Don't they take part of the credit/responsibility as well? Do you really think that list makes Archie Manning one of the worst QB's? If you go by that, you have to say yes. Does it mean that Payton Manning, Brady, and others did it by themselves without the benefit of great coaches and offensive team players? It's a team sport.

I hate stats like that. If you want stats, watch baseball....