Saints Draft Evaluation (1 Viewer)

draftfreak

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2018 Saints Draft (Grade: 82 = B-)

I will post my UDFA evals tomorrow or Friday.


1 – 14 – Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA, 6’6 265lbs – 4.58: (Grade: 85 = B)
Stats: In 2017, as a 4th year Senior, he had 55 total tackles, 17.5 TFLs, 4 batted passes, and 8.5 sacks. For his career, he had 185 TTs, 37.5 TFLs, 8 PBUs, and 21.5 sacks. He was a 3 year starter. He started 35 games over 4 years.
Positives: He is a highly athletic with fluid, flexible body movement skills, and he has great length. With his terrific balance and body control, he con drop his center of gravity and twist and turn naturally. He looks every bit the part of a dominating DE with his long arms (34 inch) and large hands. With his body structure, he could add another 20 to 25lbs and not lose any of his quickness. He has explosive power and rare speed and maneuverability for his size and is physically tough and will battle through injuries and has gotten bigger and stronger every year — he got to UTSA as a 200lb LB. He can collapse the edge and sometimes knocks blockers aside too easily — he’s just naturally strong — country strong. He is also very coordinated and can link moves together. He has quick, coordinated hands and feet to shoot off of blocks and has natural pass-rush ability and has the burst, bend and closing speed to hunt down quarterbacks and can dip inside suddenly without losing stride. He flattens efficiently and redirects and accelerates smoothly. He can be an explosive tackler. There are just very few people on the planet who are as naturally strong, naturally explosive, naturally quick, and naturally athletic as Davenport. He is very disruptive with his quickness and creates a lot of pressure with his size and funnels production to his teammates. He can split the double team and closes on the ball in an instant, and he plays with leverage and power in his hands – converting speed into power and knocks blockers back. He disrupts a quarterback's vision with his long arms and can bat down a lot of balls and rarely leaves the field. He posted a 10-foot-4 broad jump at the combine at his size. At UTSA, he lined up everywhere along the line and won with strength, power, quickness and speed. He got better every year. He’s quiet and reserved, but he plays hard all of the time. He had an exceptional pro day workout, showing rare speed, athletic ability, bend and explosion for a man his size.
Negatives: He needs to get stronger at the point of attack and get much more consistent in his play and play with more pop and power in his hands at the LOS. He lacks ideal bulk as of now to play with his hand in the dirt and gets knocked around when he exposes his frame to blockers — which is too often. He is still very, very raw and is learning to play the position. He gets and stays too tall way too much. He doesn’t control tight ends in space and can be turned around in space way too easily. He is downright weak at the point of attack at times and gets blown up by double teams, and his natural strength isn’t always functional strength. He is still learning the nuances of playing the edge and is often overaggressive and loses containment. He must do a better job protecting his legs, and he must learn to play more naturally in space.
Overall: The trade it took to get him plays a major role in his grade. Without the trade, as a mid-1st round pick, I’d grade him around 89 because of how raw he is and how much development he needs. However, the Saints traded their 1st round pick in 2019 plus their 5th round pick in 2018 to move up and get Davenport. That’s expensive. That would be like trading away Ryan Ramczyk or Marcus Williams or Mark Ingram or Cam Jordan – all of whom were either late 1st round picks or a 2nd round pick. He is extremely raw and simply isn’t ready to be a full time starter in the NFL – he needs strength and reps. I love his unlimited upside and he has the heart of a champion, but he’s just not there yet. He should be able to step in as a situational pass rusher as a rookie and provide good pressure at times, but don’t expect a full time player yet — especially the first half of the season. His inexperience and non-readiness to start along with the trade knock the grade down on this exceptional athlete.


3 – 91 – Tre’quan Smith, WR, Central Florida, 6’2 205lbs – 4.49: (Grade: 89 = B+)
Stats: In 2017, as a 4th year Junior, he had 59 receptions for 1,171 yards (19.8 avg.) and 13 TDs. He also had 5 rushes for 23 yards and 1 rushing TD. For his career, he had 168 rec. for 2,748 yards (16.4) and 22 rec. TDs. He started 35 games over 3 years.
Positives: He passes the eyeball test — big, strong, and fast. He can jump through the roof and loos sculpted. He has tremendous size as a receiver (long arms), and he is a very smooth with his route-running overall — he obviously prides himself on his play. He shoots off the line quickly with good feet, eliminates cushions quickly with short area burst, and has enough speed to stretch the field vertically at times. He has huge hands and long arms, and he uses them effectively in traffic, and he generally seems very coordinated. He has pretty good balance and body control and can run pretty good routes. He times his movements well and works on studying and beating DBs. He is a big zone target who uses quick feet to move around in confined areas quickly — simply put, he’s slippery and hard to cover in small areas. He usually shows good form as a route runner and sinks his hips and pops out of his breaks quickly. With the ball in the air, he concentrates, tracks and adjusts to it nicely. With his soft hands and sticky fingers, he can catch naturally and easily, and he has the leaping ability to compete with anyone in the air (38 inch vertical). He opens up his stride quickly and shows pretty good long speed. Maybe his best asset is his good to great field awareness and his football instincts. He understands the position and the game and plays it naturally. He generally gives good effort as a blocker and competes and plays with intensity throughout. He’s tough and intelligent and has lined up both outside and inside. He is very field aware and knows where the sticks are. With his outstanding leaping ability, he can elevate and grab throws out of the air, and he flashes special playmaking ability. He is naturally athletic and is able to sidestep the first tackler and pick up chunk yards after the catch — often. I love his natural athletic tools and his desire to be good is easy to see.
Negatives: His play speed and his timed speed do not always match up. I was extremely surprised when he ran a 4.49 because he doesn’t usually play like he’s 4.49. He has exceptional short area quickness, but he isn’t overly fast. To be honest, his team was better than every team they played last year except Auburn and it showed. Smith was often running routes against air. Because of that, his average per catch is a misnomer that highlights the offense of Cent. Florida and the weak defenses they played. He’s not a legitimate deep threat, but he does have games (like SMU) where he seems to play faster. He needs to sharpen his route running and be more detail oriented. He’s not a quick-twitch athlete and does not show elite explosion to separate vertically. He lets too many throws get into his body and is not immune to concentration drops. He’s limited creativity and elusiveness after the catch and his lack of great play-speed means he’s best used in the slot and as a possession receiver. He’s inconsistent with his ball reactions, particularly in traffic and is better at running through or under passes. Does not always play to his size and sometimes gets outmuscled for "50-50" balls and is still learning to be a dependable go-up-and-get-it guy. He tends to trap some throws against his body and occasionally drops catchable balls and could be more physical. Average elusiveness and open-field electricity.
Overall: He makes tough catches. He has a big body. He ran faster than I anticipated at the combine. He is big, strong, and fast. He has good, natural athletic ability. This is about where he should’ve gone, but there were a couple receivers I liked better still on the board. He brings good value and shows that the Saints want to get bigger at WR. He’ll be behind Thomas, Ginn, and Meredith as a rookie. Solid player – solid pick.


4 – 127 – Rick Leonard, OL, Florida St., 6’7 315lbs – 5.27 est.: (Grade: 59 = F)
Stats: He started every game (13) in 2017 all at RT. In 2016, he started 6 games at RT (the first 3 and the last 3). Prior to 2016, he was a back-up DE who barely played = finishing his career on defense with only 6 tackles.
Positives: He's a big, lumbering tackle and those guys make it on some rosters. He has some athletic traits and his feet are fairly quick. When he keeps his butt low, he can drive defenders back with good power. He’s a big, wide*body with enough power to get a solid push if his contact point is good. He keeps his head up, and shows good instincts overall. He tries very hard to get into his blocks quickly. He has shown improvement in each of his year's at the position. He can engulf and shut down limited pass rushers with no edge quickness or inside counters and possesses a good radar on second level to seek out his target and land a square blow in run game. He makes it tough to get a quick disengage when he's locked. Despite his athletic disadvantages, he works hard to sustain backside zone blocks by running his feet. He is a hard worker and he has room to improve.
Negatives: Would anyone feel safe with him starting anytime in the near future? He has fairly short arms for a tackle. Athletically, he’s just average. He struggles against plus power and has major issues redirecting when his edge is attacked – falls a lot. He’s highly inconsistent sustaining run blocks and will get controlled and tossed around at times if he doesn’t win early with his hands. An NFL-caliber anchor is missing against a true bull rush, and he gets pushed back too often and too easily. He is high cut with issues changing direction naturally, and he sets in both the running game and the passing game with a base that is too narrow which causes him to lose balance too easily. He leans into his second level blocks with his head and shoulders out over his feet — losing balance. He’s unable to sustain blocks for very long and struggles to reliably secure blocks when asked to block on the move. His hand placement can turn into hug placement far too often, and he absolutely needs to maintain a wider, more balanced base when asked to drive block. When he’s beaten inside, he has a custom of going dead-legged and leaning back inside rather than taking quick steps to close off the lane. He has only played offense for 2 seasons. He is extremely raw. Even though he could play the position athletically, he just doesn’t know the position well enough. He’s only ever played RT on offense, and I imagine it would take a lot of time to prep him for another position. He has good hand-eye coordination, but his feet don’t always seem to be synced to his movements, and his kick slide quickness to the edge is slow. He opens up his base too early and gives away the edge too quickly.
Overall: I’d love to compare him to Zach Strief coming out of Northwestern in 2006, but the truth is that Strief was much better – even as a 7th round project. Strength and balance are substantial concerns and might always be issues for Rick. I do believe he could play inside better than outside and that he has enough athletic ability to eventually be a decent back-up, but to draft this guy in the 4th round when there is serious concern as to whether he’ll even make the team is a seriously bad thing.


5 – 164 – Natrell Jamerson, CB/FS/RM, Wisconsin, 5’11 199lbs – 4.40: (Grade: 94 = A)
Stats: In 2017, as a 4th year Senior, he had, 51 total tackles, 12 PBUs, 3.5 TFLs, and 2 INTs in 14 starts at FS/Nickel. In 2016, at CB, he had 19 TTs, 1 TFL, and 4 PBUs with 2 starts on the outside and 6 starts at nickel. Although he was heavily recruited (4-star) as a WR, he had no career receptions and moved to CB in 2015. He spent 2015 & 2016 as the team’s primary kick returner. For his career as a KR, he had 38 returns for 784 yards (20.6 avg.) and 1 TD. He was 165lbs as a Freshman.
Positives: Athletically, he’s gifted. He has very long arms and big hands, and he’s extremely well-coordinated and quick. While perhaps a touch shorter than preferred in the modern NFL, Jamerson possesses a solid build with good overall weight distribution. He has excellent timed speed that translates well to the field as well. He has a low, quick backpedal and fluid hips which allow him to turn and run with even explosive, fast receivers. He doesn't rely on a jam at the line of scrimmage to slow receivers nearly as much as he should, but he will deliver them on occasion and shows a good, physical pop to disrupt timing with the quarterback when he does. He shows good patience in off-coverage, showing the composure to allow receivers to commit to deep routes before turning to transition. He has the speed to make up for small mistakes and he has shown to be football smart. He plays with very good balance and above-average play strength and is well-built and competitive. He’s a fluid athlete with coordinated footwork and a smooth motion to easily flip his hips. He can be a disruptive press-corner/nickel back and has a high caliber "click-and-close" ability. He’s a good leaper who attacks the ball and receiver at the high point and shows very good to great athleticism. He has good instincts and although he’s still learning the positions, he’s gotten dramatically better each year. He has an improved awareness in coverage and is really starting to react instead of think. He shows a quick burst to break on the ball in the air and has very good hand-eye coordination to slap away passes. He has recovery quickness and natural anticipatory traits in coverage. He is also willing to lower his shoulder into ball-carriers and is becoming a reliable open-field tackler. His lateral movement skills and athleticism really start to show up in the return game. Although he never returned punts, he shows the quick-twitch skills to be effective.
Negatives: He is too reliant upon his foot quickness, and he still needs technique work. His outside-in releases get him turned around too much. He has unpolished reading and recognition skills and needs to better anticipate route concepts and how to leverage the field as he progresses. He shows a lot of gambler tendencies and is always sniffing around on underneath throws which opens himself up to double moves. He will also get caught lunging in press coverage a bit too often. As a return man, he’s only ever returned kicks – never punts. He needs reps on defense and he needs reps in the return game.
Overall: A talent like his coming in the 5th round helps his grade. He could be just scratching the surface of his potential. If given the time to grow and mature as a player, he could be special. His grade goes up because of the value of where he was drafted and that he has such upside.


6 – 189 – Kamrin Moore, CB/FS, Boston College, 5’10 203lbs – 4.55: (Grade: 78 = C+)
Stats: In 2017, as a 4th year Senior, at CB, he had 50 total tackles, 2 TFLs, and 9 PBUs in 10 games. He was voted team captain. Hurt his shoulder in game 10 and missed remainder of season. For his career, he had 142 TTs, 21 PBUs, 7 TFLs, and 2 INTs. In 31 starts.
Positives: He’s an unorthodox defender who rarely relies solely on technique. Although not a super athlete, he’s a very fluid mover. He's a bit shorter than ideal to play on the outside, but he's tough as nails and plays with grit. He’s tough and he plays tough, and he’s one of the more instinctual CBs in this class. He also possesses the range and ball skills to potentially move to safety in a defense that would allow him to roam. He can transition out of breaks explosively (his best athletic trait) and he has the foot quickness in tight spaces to match up against most. He is very instinctive and alert and he makes plays away from him because he sees the play unfolding so quickly. He has off the charts football instincts. He can transition from man or zone coverage and is a willing tackler against crossing routes that enter his side of the field. He will fight, bite and hit to make the play despite his size limitations. He, by no means, is not a robotic defender. He plays by instincts and gut reactions. He adjusts on the fly as the play unfolds and uses the boundary effectively. He doesn't shy away from tackling at all and will sacrifice his body. He’s super competitive and won't prematurely open up his hips out of fear – he sees and understands the routes. He’s obviously a film-junkie. He tracks the ball effectively and has plus ball awareness skills and is mentally tough. He wipes it off and comes back strong. He is a good enough athlete for the most part and has some twitchy qualities — especially in his transitions. He makes plays or funnels plays to others, and he’s very aggressive for size in press coverage. He has experience outside and in the slot and should be a great gunner on special teams.
Negatives: He’s very quick and plays very quick in short areas, but he is not fast and he doesn’t play fast. He is very smart and knows his speed limitations. He likes to keep plays in front of him; hence, a move to FS is not a bad idea. As a CB, unless he is covered up in the slot and allowed to use his short area quickness and instincts, his speed can hurt him. He gets in trouble when trying to bait throws, and he spends too much time trying to read quarterback and jump routes. He prefers to play trail technique but lacks length speed to recover when challenged over the top against bigger targets. Simply put, he’s not big and he has had a lot of little injuries that haven’t kept him from playing, but they add up. He did have a shoulder injury that ended his career at BC. He lacks great upside. He is what he is.
Overall: He's a gutsy, fiesty player who lacks size and speed. He might lack the size teams want from an outside cornerback, but he's more than capable of playing in the slot effectively and playing press, off or zone effectively as long as teams realize his speed limitations. Pretty good value here, but he’s not played a lot of STs and his lack of deep speed hurts him.


6 – 201 – Boston Scott, RB/RM, La. Tech, 5’7 195lbs – 4.40: (Grade: 83 = B-)
Stats: In 2017, as a 5th year Senior, he had 183 rushes for 1,047 yards (5.7) and 8 TDs. He also had 20 receptions for 181 yards and 1 receiving TD. He had 14 career starts. He split carries in 2016 with Jarred Craft after Kenneth Dixon graduated. In 2017, he still split time with Jared Craft, but he became the primary back. For his career, he had 288 rushes for 1,840 yards (6.4) and 14 Rushing TDs – 32 rec. for 307 yards and 1 rec. TD. As a return man, he had 29 career kickoff returns for an impressive 633 (21.8) and 0 TDs. He never returned a punt.
Positives: He is very athletic — his workout numbers are rare. I’m not referring to just his speed. A 6.67 3-cone drill doesn’t happen that often and it shows awesome lateral movement skills. He can run and jump better than most anyone. Honestly, he freaky athletic. He can bend, flex, twist, and explode quicker and better than most. He looks like a poor man’s Barry sanders (Does anyone else remember the poor Man’s Guide to the NFL Draft). He plays with a low center of gravity and pad level and is very quick out of the blocks. He makes a lot of people miss and has a knack for getting extra yards after contact. He has good vision to pick and slide, and he has the speed to explode through the hole into daylight. He can jump-cut abruptly and change the angle of pursuit like very few can. He’s an old school-style RB who gets better and better as he carries more. He darts through holes and has excellent stop-and-start quickness. He’s very sudden in his movements. He spins off contact and has a very powerful lower body and forward lean. He runs bigger than his size infers, and he works hard to finish runs. He shows good hands and creativity as a short receiver in his limited exposure as a receiver and is at least trustworthy in pass protection. He faces up rushers, and he gives great effort. He is not afraid of contact. He proved capable of handling a heavy workload in 2017 and played big in big games. He was Tech’s Kickoff Return man and has shown he can take it the distance. His athleticism and talent make him an ideal return man. Although he’s never been used as a punt returner, he should be at least good at it. .
Negatives: Up until the final 8 games of his college career, he was either a back-up to Kenneth Dixon or he spit time with Jarred Craft. The last 8 games of the season, he carried the team on his back, but where was he before that? His first 3 years on campus lead to very little activity — even as a return man. In 2016, he finally started to do something. He played 2nd fiddle to Craft in 2016, but at least he did play. Prior to 2016, he did almost nothing on the football field. As strong and athletic as he is, he is also in a small package and can simply be engulfed at times. He hasn’t really been a full time starter since High School. He should be a great return man and a great 3rd down back, but he only has 32 career receptions and 29 career KO returns. He’s an unknown. He tries hard in pass pro, but his fundamentals are way off.
Overall: I can’t figure out why he didn’t do much prior to 2016 other than Kenneth Dixon was there. Boston is sort of a mystery in that he has a lot of talent as a runner and return man and is an athletic freak of nature, but he is so extremely raw that he’s very hard to evaluate. I like him a lot and I want to like him more, but part of his past scares me. At the end of the 6th round, he brings good value, but he’s still a bit of an unknown.


7 – Will Clapp, C/G, LSU, 6’5 310lbs – 5.39: (Grade: 83 = B-)
Stats: In 2017, as a 4th year Junior, he started 13 games at C replacing Ethan Pocic. In 2015 and 2016, he started 12 games at LG and 11 games at RG.
Positives: He’s a 3-year starter in the SEC who has played against some of the best week in and week out. He has a functional base in pass protection for the most part and can bump, steer and mirror against defenders. He understands fit and positioning very well, and he knows how to drop his butt and anchor. He’s a versatile lineman who has played all three interior positions and is alert and keeps his head on a swivel in pass protection. He sees and adjusts to the blitz quickly and can work up to the second level and will work to finish his blocks. He sometimes flashes decent pop in his punch and tries to play with power. He’s very durable and works his hips to seal and execute combo blocks — he plays hard. He studies film and uses consistent footwork to wall-off defenders. He gets the line in position as a pivot and is constantly aware and alert and has good in-line reactions. He plays with a mean streak and seeks to impose his will. He’s started 36 games of his career and has experience locking horns with NFL-caliber DTs—he’s very battle tested. He’s very football smart and can easily make line-calls. He reads movement well (twists – stunts) and is almost always in the right position. He’s a highly respected teammate whose also an intelligent vocal leader with outstanding football character.
Negatives: He has short 31 inch arms and simply cannot physically match up well against longer armed defenders when they get into his body. He absolutely must bulk up his frame and get stronger to start in the NFL — especially his lower body. He has a narrow base and is not a natural knee bender, so his ability to anchor is limited. He only has decent push, power and explosion coming from his lower body and is too often content to stalemate. At this point he does not play with a load in his hands for the most part. He also tends to bend at the waist, lean and fall off blocks. He spends too much time on the ground and often struggles to sustain on the second level. He lacks power in pass protection and can be moved off a spot and walked back to the quarterback. He overextends too much and loses positioning. He’s not quick or suddent and has only average recovery speed. He often carries his hands too low and does not shoot them with violence. His lack of length and lower body strength hurt him, and he catches too much of the defenders attacks instead of dishing out punishment.
Overall: He’s a warrior who has okay size and okay strength, but, in order to ever be capable of starting, he needs to beef up and get stronger — especially in his lower body. He’s a 100% hustle guy who plays smart and who works hard. If he builds himself up, he has some starter traits, but he, as of now, is just a back up who needs to get better. I love his character and mental make-up though.
 
Kirkwood is more impressive to me than Smith, can't wait to see them battling in training camp.
 
I was waiting for this post. Great write up and I think you are fair and accurate. You analyze the players for their body of work and do not change your grade based on our past scouting, one way or another. Really nice job...as usual.
 
Smith is more of a intermediate and deep threat. His short area quickness is one of the Knocks on him.
 
Thank you for taking the time to write this up and evaluate.
 
DraftFreak - You put of a lot of effort and thought into this. Thx. I may disagree with some of your analysis, but you know 3x more than I do about draftees. This is as good a piece of draft analysis as I've read on NFL.com, ESPN or CBS sports. Really Good stuff Brother!

In the gym today, Pete was talking about Davenport. He said that his 1st step from pivot foot to lead foot landing is as good as Von Miller (hope I got the mechanics right???). Says he's raw, but that he is a a freak. And apparently, everyone loves this guys work ethic, teammate attitude, commitment to excellence on and off the field. Sounds a lot like one of my top 3 favorite Saints of all time, Will Smith, as far as personality. He leads by example.

We shall see.....
 
If the OP wanted all thumbs up, he would have had to give us an overall A grade.

Great job with your analysis. It's realistic, something a lot of people on here don't want to deal in.
 
DraftFreak - You put of a lot of effort and thought into this. Thx. I may disagree with some of your analysis, but you know 3x more than I do about draftees. This is as good a piece of draft analysis as I've read on NFL.com, ESPN or CBS sports. Really Good stuff Brother!

In the gym today, Pete was talking about Davenport. He said that his 1st step from pivot foot to lead foot landing is as good as Von Miller (hope I got the mechanics right???). Says he's raw, but that he is a a freak. And apparently, everyone loves this guys work ethic, teammate attitude, commitment to excellence on and off the field. Sounds a lot like one of my top 3 favorite Saints of all time, Will Smith, as far as personality. He leads by example.

We shall see.....
I felt movement
 
If the OP wanted all thumbs up, he would have had to give us an overall A grade.

Great job with your analysis. It's realistic, something a lot of people on here don't want to deal in.

I didn’t thumb in either direction, but why is it a positive draft grade is valid while a negative is accompanied by posts explaining how one has to wait 2-3 years before a valid evaluation can be given?

Either they are all valid, or they are all a waste of time. We cannot have it both ways.
 
Thank you for your write-ups Draftfreak! I look forward to them every year.
 
I was waiting for this post. Great write up and I think you are fair and accurate. You analyze the players for their body of work and do not change your grade based on our past scouting, one way or another. Really nice job...as usual.

I second this.
 
If the OP wanted all thumbs up, he would have had to give us an overall A grade.

Great job with your analysis. It's realistic, something a lot of people on here don't want to deal in.

Very true! Plus, at this point, it's all in the eye of the beholder. Just like every single draft grades from analysts, it's all subjective, and based on their opinions of the prospects and where they were picked. Though I do not agree w/a lot of the grades and sentiment on the players, I 100% respect the effort put into the analysis.
 
yeah, Tra quan smith was running at half speed much of the time, he will have to give 110% or won't play with the Saints.
 
I always like your stuff draftfreak, but if you are going to evaluate the trade then you have to set the value of the #27 pick (at least for yourself).

1) How much 1st round talent do you expect to have been available at pick #27 in this draft class?

2) How much first round talent do you anticipate in the bottom half of the 2018 draft class?

Bear in mind late 1st rounders and earlier 2nd rounders also include: Stephone Anthony and Josh Bullocks
 

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