Saints met with top QB prospect Cam Ward [Schefter: CLE, NYG or maybe Saints have to make an offer compelling enough for #1 pick]

[SigFreudianSlip]

Just three 1's or three 1's and more?

Unsure, something came up right when I posted it and haven’t been able to finish it.
Probably more…..gonna watch when I have a moment.

 

[BBarnes]

I believe Loomis inquires about the cost of moving up to the #1 EVERY YEAR. It's part of HIS due diligence process. Look it up....he does this OFTEN, and I believe it's every year. In order to assess the cost/benefit of trading up, you need to know the cost for the #1; the cost of staying put is "free". From that, you can extrapolate an approximation of cost for any draft position. Or even develop a cost/benefit analysis for moving back.

The draft chart is ONE method, but is only a GUIDELINE, and doesn't factor in strength of overall draft; or "top heavy" draft; or strong draft at premium positions, such as QB, OT, EDGE, CB, etc... Anyone who considers "moving up and down the board" (ahem....LOOMIS!) needs to know the cost of that #1 pick, relative to their current pick. Whether there's actual interest in that #1 pick is a different discussion; but there is absolutely interest in knowing the COST of that pick.

This draft is represented to be thin at the top, but stronger than usual in the middle. The chart doesn't account for that. I'm willing to bet the Saints (and other teams) look at the draft in terms of "tiers". If there are only 10 legitimate prospects with first round grades on them, rather than 32+/-, those 10 picks become more valuable than usual, and picks 11-32 become less valuable than usual, because even though those are 1st round picks, they are graded as 2nd round talents. Conversely, maybe picks 65-81 become more valuable, because even though those picks are 3rd rounders, they are graded as 2nd round talents . And so on, and so on. Whatever the Saints "tiers" look like, I'm willing to bet that Loomis has an "adjusted chart" to account for the value of those tiers, specific to this year only. That chart gets shredded immediately after the draft, because next year will almost certainly be different.

So maybe Loomis inquiring about #1 pick is smokescreen. Maybe it's sincere. But I have 100% confidence he inquired, because he needed the information. What happens beyond that will be predicated on the perceived cost of the pick, versus the perceived benefit of the player targeted, according to Loomis' MODIFIED chart based on Saints grades from scouting, and cost of moving to #1 pick from #9.

I don't think we're moving up to #1. Titans are right....the #1 overall pick should be a generational talent. When you're moving up from #9 to #1, it MUST be a generational talent. I'm not a scout, but I don't see generational talent. Add in to the mix that this draft is supposed to be strong at positions of need for the Saints; and that it's supposed to be stronger than usual in rounds 2-3, possibly even 4. The Saints are finally armed with more picks than usual, and most of them are in that sweet spot of rounds 2-4. This draft is tailor made for the Saints to "get well soon" with respect to roster holes, and bolstering depth. Add in that we still have salary cap issues to work through, and rookie contracts are cheap, so lots of picks are more apt to solve more problems than trading a boatload of picks to take a QB with question marks about his future development. All the Saints have to do is SIT STILL (or trade BACK for more of those 2-4 rounders!) and draft well...make those picks COUNT.

Never said he didn’t. Literally said I think he threw a feeler out there but was never and is not serious about moving to one.

 

[Brandon13]

Not only that, but if people are going to start bringing up situations about teams being disappointed by "trading up" for QB's the reverse is also very true in several situations:

Chiefs are thrilled with trading up for Patrick Mahomes
Ravens are thrilled with trading up for Lamar Jackson
Buffalo are thrilled with trading up for Josh Allen
Houston was (initially) thrilled with trading up for Deshaun Watson until he became a sexual predator
Rams traded up for Goff who went to multiple Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl with the Rams and is now playing great for the Lions
Ravens traded up for Joe Flacco who helped them win a Super Bowl
Giants traded up for Eli Manning who helped them win 2 Super Bowls
Falcons traded up for Mike Vick who went to 3 Pro Bowls and finished top 4 in MVP voting twice for them. Had he not been an idiot with the dog fighting stuff his career with Atlanta likely would have been viewed much more positively

Sure there are some "differing" costs for some of these trades, but each of these trades featured a front office that saw a guy at QB they thought they could win with and they took a chance trading away high draft picks to acquire them. If our front office thinks Ward is "that guy" then I'm all for it. This franchise hasn't even made an attempt to draft a QB high in the draft since way before I was born. If they finally feel it's time to take a swing at the most important position in football, then why not at this point.

Maybe it's because I'm two beers in.. .. but this sounds pretty right to me.

 

[LetsGetWaffles]

Would probably be 2018 where we went from 27 to 14 for Davenport and 2022 from 18 to 11 for Olave

Just to entertain it in terms of similarities w the WR being included and including the point scale chart, I’m thinking we’d try to get it to be something more like R1.1 (3,000pts) for Olave (1,225pts when drafted) + R1.9 (1,350pts) + R3.71 (235pts) + ‘26 R1 (600pts) + ‘26 R2 (300pt).

So all the picks come out to 2,485pts, and throwing in Olave would cover the remainder for the Titan. He cannot be viewed as valuable as he was drafted, and next year’s picks are essentially valued at 20% of this year’s. Also, a pick worth 500pts on that value chart is R2.40 (which we possess).

 

[Tulsa Saint]

Never said he didn’t. Literally said I think he threw a feeler out there but was never and is not serious about moving to one.

I don’t think loomis(along with practically the entire staff including Moore) would go to Wards pro day in person if he wasn’t at least strongly thinking about it.

We don’t know if he’s going to do it or not but the above says quite a lot to me.

 

[DSnfla]

Totally agree with that. I’d argue tho that the team has sucked for several years now and already floundering without the big trade up.

I also think Loomis could throw a baby and a puppy off of a high rise and not get canned. That’s another topic tho, and no I’m not knocking him or advocating for his firing.

Mediocre is not sucking, 8-9 is mediocre. 9-8 is a better than average. Yes 5-12 is sucking but you need to look at the context. Believe me if we made that trade up and Ward busts or even is mediocre, ML=gone Ireland=gone CKM =gone. Only way they stay is if we miraculously hit on the remaining draft picks and in FA and the team is good enough to win with a mediocre QB in Ward

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Mediocre is not sucking, 8-9 is mediocre. 9-8 is a better than average. Yes 5-12 is sucking but you need to look at the context. Believe me if we made that trade up and Ward busts or even is mediocre, ML=gone Ireland=gone CKM =gone. Only way they stay is if we miraculously hit on the remaining draft picks and in FA and the team is good enough to win with a mediocre QB in Ward

Been a fan for a very long time and it’s definitely been worse. Mediocre is a better word for what we’ve been, I agree.

I think Ward will be a good one, also think Loomis is practically part owner so he’s not getting canned, ever, imo.

On Kellen I hope they give him 4 years.

I’m excited for the first time since Sean left, that’s all I can ask for.

 

[DSnfla]

Yep. The “Just go for it” crew has nothing but fan pride on the line.

This decision, if it backfires, could literally set the franchise back by a decade…4 to 5 years to determine the player is a bust, and likely another 4 to 5 years of figuring out who is next, not to mention the loss of the potential help of the picks you gave up for the player, including your current #9 positioning.

This is a HUGE decision that goes beyond “Just going for it.” It’s one thing to trade up to a mid first round pick, it’s a whole different ball game when you’re talking about a move from pick 9 to pick 1.

This is a franchise-altering decision that shouldn’t be taken lightly, even as fans. You BETTER get this one right if you do it, or else; the consequences of not getting it right will be disastrous.

If these " Just go for it" people would actually have a NFL multimillion dollar job and lifestyle they would sing a different tune. And if they say they'd still go for it they are lying to you and even more so to themselves

 

[DSnfla]

You can say the same about drafting a QB. It fails more often that it hits.

That doesn’t mean you stop trying. It’s the most important position in team sports. If you love a guy, go get him.

No it does not mean you stop trying, it means that you need to be very sure when you draft one , AND way more so if you trade a combination of multiple 1sts 2nds to get the guy

I find that most important position in team sports line to be preposterous. It's a talking heads line so they have something to say. If the offense and defense play roughly the same amount of snaps in a game that means the the QB is not even on the field for 1/2 the game. An NFL offense has a 60/40 pass to run ratio. So for 40% of half of the plays of the game the QB id doing nothing but handing the ball to a runner. How can that be the most important position in all of team sports?

 

[StudioSaint]

There’s absolutely no reason to send the entire staff to watch Ward unless there is legitimate interest in Ward.

A modicum of critical thinking quickly reveals a possible reason. Subterfuge with the added bonus of getting to hang out for a couple of days in Miami.

It might not be that, but it just might be that.

 

[DSnfla]

I love how Sigler used a picture of Lauscha, Loomis, and Ireland that isn't from the Miami Pro Day to try to legitimize his article.

At any rate, there is no doubt the Saints are exploring moving up to #1. Underhill reported weeks ago that the Saints called the Titans so see what the cost would be to move up to #1, but at the time the cost was considered too high. That could change in that the Saints may decide they are willing to pay that price or the Titans could lower their demand. And, maybe it never gets done, but the Saints are clearly considering it.

YUP that's Siglar for ya. It's starting to become maybe 4 or 5 guys that I don't think are extreme click chasers out there

 

[sammymvpknight]

Been a fan for a very long time and it’s definitely been worse. Mediocre is a better word for what we’ve been, I agree.

I think Ward will be a good one, also think Loomis is practically part owner so he’s not getting canned, ever, imo.

On Kellen I hope they give him 4 years.

I’m excited for the first time since Sean left, that’s all I can ask for.

Completely agree. Let’s not kid ourselves that this is as bad as the Katrina year or Ditka days/pre-Mora days. It’s not that this is a horrible team, but that is part of the frustration. It truly feels like we’re in indefinite purgatory. Not good enough to compete but not bad enough to truly upgrade the QB position. Moore offers a small bit of optimism but this is still an aging team without much high end talent. It’s a team that needs a reset but without a clear path to even do that. Ward at least provides optimism and hope…because a good HC and franchise QB is definitely the quickest avenue to improve your team.

 

[sammymvpknight]

A modicum of critical thinking quickly reveals a possible reason. Subterfuge with the added bonus of getting to hang out for a couple of days in Miami.

It might not be that, but it just might be that.

who exactly are they trying to confuse? This is crunch time…they aren’t going to waste their entire staffs time unless it was for a better reason than deception and hanging out in Miami (which frankly, sucks).

 

[Tulsa Saint]

who exactly are they trying to confuse? This is crunch time…they aren’t going to waste their entire staffs time unless it was for a better reason than deception and hanging out in Miami (which frankly, sucks).

Also in years of following saints drafts I cannot recall loomis himself going to a pro day.

Now I could be wrong and missed somewhere but it’s very rare for him to do that plus have both coordinators and other high level staff including Moore.