Saints trade up, using approximate value (1 Viewer)

[FooDoo]

An analysis of Saints trade up, using pro football reference approximate value.

Very imperfect. Obviously, the Saints wouldn't had made those pick if they stood pat. But without knowing their strategy and cloud grades, it's impossible to say whom the Saints would had picked and how that pick worked out if they didn't trade.

The AV analysis shows the trade up is roughly neutral. They hit big in 2017 with Kamara, but for the most part it's a wash. The "worst" is 2016 when they traded up for Bell and Onyemata. Those are good picks, but the Thuney was picked with trade turned the trade into big negative.

My baseball analogy is Saints are swinging for the fence -- they connected once for a home run, but got mostly pop ups and singles.


2021 -8 av
-8 av Paulson adebo 3r76 av 11 for quinn meinerz 3r98 av 8 baron browning 3r105 av 11

2020 -9 av
-5 av Zack baun 3r74 av 7 nate stanley 7r244 av 0 for 3r88 jordan elliott av 10 and Anthony Schwartz n3r91 av 2
-4 av Adam trautman 3r105 av 6 for james lynch 4r130 av 5 Harrison hand av 2 5r169 Blake brandel 6r203 av 3 nate stanley 7r244 av 0

2019 +14 av
+8 av Erik McCoy 2r48 av 25 Amani hooker 4r116 av 11 for Andy Isabella 2r62 av 4 and Isaiah prince 6r202 av 4 Raekwon Davis n2r56 av 20
+6 av Cj gardner-johnson 4r105 av 17 for Amani hooker 4r116 av 11 d’andre walker 5r168 av 0

2018 -9 av
-9 av Marcus davenport 1r14 av 19 for rashaad penny 1r27 av 14 Micah kiser 5r147 av 8 deandre baker n1r30 av 6

2017 +138 av
+61 av Alvin Kamara AV 72 (3R67) for Adrian Colbert 7R229 AV 9 Derrius Guice n2R59 AV2
+77 av Ryan Ramczyk AV 67 1r32 Trey Hendrickson AV 36 3r103 for Brandin cook av 13and mack Hollins 4r118 AV 13

2016 -25 AV
-33 av Vonn bell av 36 2r61 for Joe thuney av 65 3r78 Malcolm Mitchell 4r112 av 4
+8 av David onyemata av37 4r120 for Matthew ioannidis av 27 5r152 and Jeremy sprinkle 5r154 av 2

2014 +3 AV
+3 av Brandin cooks 1r20 av 78 for deone bucannon 1r27 av 35 and John brown 3r91 av 40


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/2021_trades.htm
notation
The draft pick is Round followed by position; eg 1r20 means 1st round, 20th pick. If preceded by 'n', that means the following year pick

 

[oysters]

I don't understand. Are you saying, for instance, in 2016 we got david Onyemata when had we stayed put we could have drafted Ionnidis/Sprinkle (or that's who was selected in those spots)? We traded 152/154 for 120? I don't remember the trade details of any trade.

 

[SweetT]

Cliff notes, dummy that down please

 

[Rouxble]

If I’m reading it right, we ended up with +104 net AV across 11 trades. By that metric, I would say the strategy is working, even if we don’t win 100% of the trades.

 

[Stalwart385]

Not a big fan of this method. Seems like it would have too much baked in randomness of the crap shoot that is the draft. Would need a very large sample size to average any realization out.

I think the ideal method (if you a like AV anyway) is to find the average AV of all players at their draft position. If they exceeded it, they did good with their pick.

The old picks are irrelevant to me anyway. I assume they paid the appropriate value to move up. I want to know if they are more successful than normal by targeting their guy (weighted by draft position). By other studies I've seen I think the answer is yes.

 

[dtc]

If I’m reading it right, we ended up with +104 net AV across 11 trades. By that metric, I would say the strategy is working, even if we don’t win 100% of the trades.

I math pretty well most of the time and that's what I got too.

 

[SweetT]

Ok, so is this an analysis of Saints trade up on draft night or in general? The OP stated Saints trade UP in the post.
We got a +77 for Ram, but didn’t we get that draft pick before the draft (Brandin Cooks trade)? Have to admit that my memory gets fuzzier by the day, but I don’t remember Cooks being traded on draft day.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Guys and gals, would our 71 and next year’s 2nd get us up to shout 15ish? Thinking we’d need more…..(hoping to hang on to 40)

Not trying to thread hijack, figured this would be a good place to ask. I’m not good with the charts.

 

[HattiesburgWhoDat]

d (if you a like AV anyway) is to find the average AV of all players at their draft position. If they exceeded it, they did good with their pick.

I plead ignorance. What is AV?

 

[RaginCajun83]

I was told there would be no math

 

[tjharris]

Okay so what would it take for us to trade up from 29 to 20?

 

[TruSaint]

If I’m reading it right, we ended up with +104 net AV across 11 trades. By that metric, I would say the strategy is working, even if we don’t win 100% of the trades.

Impossible, way too many people on here that way Loomis and Ireland aren’t good at trading up.

 

[Optimistic Ozzy]

I was told there would be no math

"nor would I be cross examined"

 

[SweetT]

Impossible, way too many people on here that way Loomis and Ireland aren’t good at trading up.

This chart does not reference that we are good at trading up. Remove AK41 and we are basic AF. Like I said in another post, I’m not sure if you can count Ram bc Cooks was traded before the draft. So that pick is not indicative of us trading up in the draft. It’s just a pick from an earlier trade.

 

[Stalwart385]

I plead ignorance. What is AV?

Approximate Value. It's an overall statistical career grade. Not a big fan of it, uses some questionable methods imo. That said not much else out there that does what it does.