Saints Win Probability Monday--.46 (1 Viewer)

[RJ in Lafayette]

Not my number, though it looks about right given Atlanta's incredible record at home.

For the win probabilities for each game this week, go to the always fascinating Fifth Down NFL Blog on the New York Times website featuring statistical analysis by Brian Burke, who does Advanced NFL Statistics.

And comparing the two teams statistically, the one glaring number is turnovers. We are a minus five with net turnovers, and sit in the bottom third of the league. Drew's 19 interceptions hurt--and we have surprisingly only nine interceptions this year. The Falcons are a plus 13 in net turnovers. That is a differential of 18 turnovers.

 

[KRich714]

And comparing the two teams statistically, the one glaring number is turnovers. We are a minus five with net turnovers in the bottom third of the league. Drew's 19 interceptions hurt--and we have surprisingly only nine interceptions this year. The Falcons are a plus 13. That is a differential of 18 turnovers.

and yet we are still in the running for division and possible 1st seed in the playoffs (once we beat the falcons and bucs and of course a miracle if carolina does). to me this shows how great of a team we have on our hands.

 

[number1saints]

its not hard to have +13 TO ratio when you play the most simplistic offense in the NFL in 25 years

 

[State Of Affairs]

Not my number, though it looks about right given Atlanta's incredible record at home.

For the win probabilities for each game this week, go to the always fascinating Fifth Down NFL Blog on the New York Times website featuring statistical analysis by Brian Burke, who does Advanced NFL Statistics.

And comparing the two teams statistically, the one glaring number is turnovers. We are a minus five with net turnovers, and sit in the bottom third of the league. Drew's 19 interceptions hurt--and we have surprisingly only nine interceptions this year. The Falcons are a plus 13 in net turnovers. That is a differential of 18 turnovers.

I'm not that worried about Drew's interceptions, 1st... we're going to have more interceptions cuz we throw more and 2... fluke interceptions... there were several games that we were behind and he threw interceptions trying to make plays to get back in the game, a couple crazy interception by DLinemen and end of the game desperation interceptions... In the end, I don't see Drew as an interception machine, it's more bad luck cuz one season does not define any player.... I believe circumstances with injuries and poor running efficiency has been part of a problem... We all know what he's capable of playing mistake free football but the rest of the team has to help also... defense cant put us in a position where we get behind and running game has to be more effective...

That is huge but we only need to be plus in turnovers MONDAY... I'm not trying to be obscure.... more trying to say that we all know we're capable of and if we put it together, we're close... very close.... we can get very hot... We don't have to lead the league in rushing, we just have to preform well from this point forward... We don't have to have to be top 10 in turnover ratio, we only have to protect the ball better and get turnovers starting now...

Forget the entire season worth of stats, they're meaning less... Show me the stats from the last 4 weeks... This is a different team from the beginning of the season just like most other teams... How much of last season's stats came from the hot 6 game start of the season... If we would have only squeaked by to win those games, our stats would not have been as impressive but we still would have been 13-3 (well, assuming all things stayed the same)

We had injuries to key players early.. Now they're back and if we can get them in sync, we're every bit as dangerous as last year or as any other team in the league... My hope and expectation is that once these games get big, the great team will reemerge..

its not hard to have +13 TO ratio when you play the most simplistic offense in the NFL in 25 years

Great point and in line with mine... Drew does have more int but if Drew just checked down as much as the Falcon's offense, he would have less interceptions, if drew had the Turner on the Saints roster, he would have less ints but Drew is a play maker and it the focal point of our offense...

 

[thefifthwall]

And the probability of beating them twice at home should be worse

Nothing like Two Dat with the Who Dats

Are you ready...Are you ready for Two Dat football Who Dats?

 

[Thanatos]

its not hard to have +13 TO ratio when you play the most simplistic offense in the NFL in 25 years

If that offense is so simplistic, it should be easy to stop, right? Turnovers are about ball security in the rush game, good decision making by the QB coupled with solid OL protection, and receivers running strong routes. It's also about making plays on defense. The only way to have a plus in that is to get the TOs. Having a TO free offense can only lead to a 0 differential...

 

[ehusson80]

If that offense is so simplistic, it should be easy to stop, right? Turnovers are about ball security in the rush game, good decision making by the QB coupled with solid OL protection, and receivers running strong routes. It's also about making plays on defense. The only way to have a plus in that is to get the TOs. Having a TO free offense can only lead to a 0 differential...

The Failcon offense may be "simplistic" but it's effective. It really says something when you don't really have to fool defenses and can line up and run the plays effectively even when the defense pretty much knows whats coming. It'll be a tough out for the Saints Monday night. A win in Atl., (where Ryan is 19-1) in primetime with the division and HFA on the line would easily be the best win of the year for the Saints, IMO. The Failcons are a really good team, maybe even great, but so are the Saints. Hopefully the Saints' post-season experience and success will prove the difference in the playoffs. It's gonna be a fun ride.

 

[The Falcon Jedi]

Sometimes the best solution is usually the simplest solution.

 

[Thanatos]

The Failcon offense may be "simplistic" but it's effective. It really says something when you don't really have to fool defenses and can line up and run the plays effectively even when the defense pretty much knows whats coming. It'll be a tough out for the Saints Monday night. A win in Atl., (where Ryan is 19-1) in primetime with the division and HFA on the line would easily be the best win of the year for the Saints, IMO. The Failcons are a really good team, maybe even great, but so are the Saints. Hopefully the Saints' post-season experience and success will prove the difference in the playoffs. It's gonna be a fun ride.

Agreed. I still think these are the two best teams in the NFC, and probably two of the top 3 in the NFL, along with the Patriots. If we were in different conferences, I could easily seeing us being a SB matchup. I don't think there is any way to call this game, really. Even if both teams play their style of ball, there's usually some unpredictable, wacky event in the game that swings it one way or another. I think it will be a great game. I don't have a clue who will win.

 

[REBEL_SOUL]

Sometimes the best solution is usually the simplest solution.

Or

Often the simplest solution is the best solution.