Statistically, 5% chance of Saints winning NFC South (2 Viewers)

[XLIV]

This takes into account the 36% chance ATL loses to SEA, the 6% chance ATL loses to CAR , the 37% chance NO beats ATL, the 45% chance we beat BAL, and the 59% chance we beat TB.

That comes out to about 5% chance that the saints win the NFC South.

Has anyone seen Vegas odds on the NFC South race?

 

[Osaka]

If statistics could measure heart, we would have lost to Arizona in the playoffs.

In a way, this team is addicting to smashing statistics/odds. We decided to lose to the Browns and Cardinals and then smash the Steelers to rattle off a 6 game win streak. I bet no one predicted that, lol.

 

[Saintsfan2121]

The odds of ATL losing to SEA are slim. I'd imagine the odds of ATL losing to SEA + us running the table are even slimmer. That said, 5% is still lower than I would have guessed.

 

[flasaint]

Where do yall come up with all this CRAP..............

LETS JUST PLAY FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:aargh2:

 

[whodat??]

Where do yall come up with all this CRAP.......

If a and b are the probabilities associated with two independent pieces of evidence, then combined they indicate a probability of:

ab
-------------------
ab + (1 - a)(1 - b)
So in this case our answer is:

(.60)(.72)
-------------------------------
(.60)(.72) + (1 - .60)(1 - .72)
which is .794. There is a 79.4% chance that the person is a basketball player.

 

[Saint Droopy]

Real simple... Turds lose to the She-hawks... we run the table... we win the division.

**** all these scientific calculations.

 

[Saint Jeremy]

If the Falcons lose and the Saints win on Sunday, the odds go up.

Just win.

 

[Sarcastic]

If a and b are the probabilities associated with two independent pieces of evidence, then combined they indicate a probability of:

ab
-------------------
ab + (1 - a)(1 - b)
So in this case our answer is:

(.60)(.72)
-------------------------------
(.60)(.72) + (1 - .60)(1 - .72)
which is .794. There is a 79.4% chance that the person is a basketball player.

LOL nice internet searching! I got the same page for my first result.

This takes into account the 36% chance ATL loses to SEA, the 6% chance ATL loses to CAR , the 37% chance NO beats ATL, the 45% chance we beat BAL, and the 59% chance we beat TB.

But this formula gives me .33 chance that the Saints make the playoffs. It's calculating the probability that something is true given more than one piece of evidence in favor. That's different from calculating the chance that more than one future EVENT will happen on their probabilities. Basically, your formula excludes the possibility of some of them happening, but not all.

I'm really not sure what they're calculating off of. Just multiplying the four factors (Atlanta's loss plus our three wins) gives me 4.1%.

EDIT: Ok, I got it. Using that method, you get a 3.6% chance that we win out and Atlanta loses to Seattle. Then a 1.3% chance that we win our last two and Atlanta loses to Carolina. The Ravens game is meaningless then. So that's 5%. What do I win?

/nerd

 

[Sarcastic]

If the Falcons lose and the Saints win on Sunday, the odds go up.

Just win.

That would make it 24%. A subsequent win over Atlanta would make it 65%.

Wait...you really didn't want to hear the numbers, did you?

 

[DoubleSaint]

We still have a 100% chance to win the Super Bowl. That's good enough for me.

 

[WhatDat]

But your statistics do not take in to account the most important variable...

 

[Sarcastic]

But your statistics do not take in to account the most important variable...

I tried to include heart statistics. But when I googled, I didn't find what I was looking for, and now I don't want to eat any more red meat or drink alcohol.

 

[WhatDat]

I tried to include heart statistics. But when I googled, I didn't find what I was looking for, and now I don't want to eat any more red meat or drink alcohol.

If you survived being a Saints fan for longer than 5 years, you have nothing to worry about...you have a strong heart and an even stronger constitution.

 

[champ76]

So you're saying there's a chance....

 

[mt15]

Here's what I got out of this thread: the OP gives us only a 37% chance to beat Atlanta, but he gives Atlanta a 64% chance of winning at Seattle?

Have a little faith, man!