The Average Tenure Of An NFL Head Coach (2 Viewers)

[Saint Jack]

And this folks is why I said Payton was so much more valuable than the picks the Saints got. Franchises are lucky if they have a single Sean Payton level coach in their entire history.

On the flip side, you run the risk of becoming that franchise with just that one run.
You look at the Cowboys and Landry in the last few years.
Same with the Steelers and Knoll. They only had one playoff appearance from 85-91.
It becomes just a nostalgia act. And at some point, this franchise was gonna have to learn to function without Payton.

 

[No2DC]

And this folks is why I said Payton was so much more valuable than the picks the Saints got. Franchises are lucky if they have a single Sean Payton level coach in their entire history.

It's Mickey's fault again. He accepted that we were never going to get more than we got. Payton is worth at least three 1st to this franchise. This delusional guy thought Dennis Allen would replace one of the top 5 coaches in the league.

note: I apologize for my growing impatience, but every time I think about what Loomis did, combined with his "I don't give a fork demeanor" it just adds salt to the wound of our pathetic state.

 

[Saint Jack]

It's Mickey's fault again. He accepted that we were never going to get more than we got. Payton is worth at least three 1st to this franchise. This delusional guy thought Dennis Allen would replace one of the top 5 coaches in the league.

note: I apologize for my growing impatience, but every time I think about what Loomis did, combined with his "I don't give a fork demeanor" it just adds salt to the wound of our pathetic state.

Just to play devil’s advocate for a quick second.
There was no easy way to get through this trade without potentially damaging Payton’s relationship with the franchise.
Consider this, when Payton retires for good, he’s still gonna be very valuable for the franchise in terms of this franchise selling merchandise based on that ‘06-‘21 run, his potential induction to the HOF.
Damaging his relationship with the Saints does have an effect even after his full retirement.

 

[Clintonrebel]

Also consider the NFL's preferred list of candidates. These flag disparities are getting old.

 

[Clintonrebel]

It's Mickey's fault again. He accepted that we were never going to get more than we got. Payton is worth at least three 1st to this franchise. This delusional guy thought Dennis Allen would replace one of the top 5 coaches in the league.

note: I apologize for my growing impatience, but every time I think about what Loomis did, combined with his "I don't give a fork demeanor" it just adds salt to the wound of our pathetic state.

If the Saints and the Broncos came to an impasse over Payton, what would the NFL do? Or should I say Gayle Benson vs the Waltons? The NFL isn't stupid.

 

[mleg1972]

Over the past decade, the average tenure of a newly hired NFL Head Coach lasts 3.2 years, and during this period only five Head Coaches in the NFL have kept their job for a 10-year period of time. All five men - Bill Belichick (71 years old) now in his 28th season, his 23rd with the Patriots, Andy Reid (65 years old) now in his 25th season, his 11th with the Chiefs, Pete Carroll (71 years old) now in his 17th season, his 13th with the Seahawks, Mike Tomlin (51 years old) now in his 16th season with the Steelers, and John Harbaugh (61 years old) now in his 15th season with the Ravens have won a Super Bowl with their Current Franchise. Other long time NFL Head Coaches currently leading teams who have won Super Bowls with past teams are Mike McCarthy (60 years old) in his 16th season, his 4th year with the Cowboys, Sean Payton (59 years old) in his 17th season, his 1st with the Broncos, and Doug Pederson (55 years old) now in his 7th season, his 2nd with the Jaguars.

The turnover rate for NFL Head Coaches is about 25 percent each season. That's an average of 8 per year. If you removed the aforementioned coaches from the equation, the turnover rate would be even worse.

There were five New Head Coaches hired in 2023, Shane Steichen (Colts), Sean Payton (Broncos), DeMeco Ryans (Texans), Frank Reich (Panthers/Fired), and Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals/Fired). Only 10 of the league's 32 Head Coaches were hired before 2020. Since the AFC and NFC merger in 1970, there have been 32 one and done NFL Head Coaches that have been fired either during or after their first year on the job.

The average age of all NFL Coaches entering the 2020 season was 43 years old. Currently there are 13 NFL Head Coaches under the age of 45 (40%), including Sean McVay/Rams, Kyle Shanahan/49ers, Nick Sirianni/Eagles, Mike McDaniel/Dolphins, Zac Taylor/Bengals, DeMeco Ryans/Texans, Kevin Stefanski/Browns, Shane Steichen/Colts, Kevin O'Connell/Vikings. Brandon Staley/Chargers, Matt LaFleur/Packers, Robert Saleh/Jets, and Arthur Smith/Clowns.

In 2017 Sean McVay became the youngest NFL Coach in modern NFL History at the age of 30 years old. McVay was a former high school QB who was named Georgia 4A Offensive Player of the Year and he is the grandson of former NFL Head Coach John Mcvay who was also an NFL GM for the 49ers 5 Super Bowls Championships. In his first season guiding the Rams, Sean McVay completed one of the greatest Offensive turnarounds in NFL history. The Rams were the 32nd Ranked Scoring Team in the NFL in 2016 and in 2017 they were the Top Scoring Team, marking the first time in league history a team had gone from last to first in scoring. He became the youngest Head Coach in NFL History to lead his team to a Super Bowl at the age of 33, and the youngest Head Coach to win a Super Bowl at the age of 36. Without a doubt one of the brightest young minds in the league now in his 7th year as an NFL Head Coach. McVay remains the youngest NFL Head Coach in the league at 37 years old. He has a career regular season record of 66 wins and 44 losses (.600) and a postseason record of 7-3 (.700). Under his guidance, the Rams have been in the Super Bowl twice.

Nick Sirianni, a former college wide receiver, son of a coach, and a long time Offensive Coach, now in his 3rd year as Head Coach of the Eagles has a career regular season record of 33 wins and 13 losses (.717) and a post season record of 2 wins and 2 losses. He was the only first-year coach to lead a team to the playoffs in the 2021 NFL season. In 2022 the Eagles had a 14-3 record and advanced to the Super Bowl. They are currently the #1 Seed in the NFC and are in 1st place in the NFC East with a 10-2 record. Very good in all phases of the game, at times they look unbeatable.

Kyle Shanahan, a former college wide receiver and longtime NFL Offensive Coordinator, now in his 7th year as the Head Coach of the 49ers has a career record of 61 wins and 49 losses (.555), is currently 9 & 3 and in 1st Place in the NFC West. He has a career playoff record of 6 wins and 3 losses. His 49ers have made 3 NFC title game appearances and a Super Bowl berth. He has assembled a well-balanced team that currently has a good chance to win it all.

Mike McDaniel, a former college wide receiver, began his NFL coaching career at the age of 22. A long time NFL Offensive Assistant Coach, he was named Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2022. Now in his 2nd season he has a record of 18 wins and 11 losses, currently boasting a 9 win, 3 loss record good for 1st Place in the AFC East and the #1 Seed in the entire AFC, the Dolphins are destined to make the playoffs in both of his first two years as an NFL Head Coach. Most people will agree that McDaniel is one of the brightest young minds in the game.

Zac Taylor, a former Nebraska QB under coach Bill Callahan, now in his 5th year as Head Coach of the Bengals, has a career regular season record of 34 wins, 42 losses and 1 tie (.448) and a post season record of 5 wins and 2 losses (.714). In 2021 he led the Bengals to their first playoff win since 1990, ending the longest active drought in the four major North American Sports in route to an appearance in Super Bowl LVI. He followed this up with 12 wins in 2022 and an appearance in the AFC Championship game. In his time with the Bengals, Taylor has won 5 postseason games, matching the franchise win total prior to his hiring as Head Coach. With a very slow start to the season and then losing their franchise QB (Burrow) for the year, the Bengals have climbed their way back into the playoff race with a 6-6 record.

Kevin O'Connell, a former NFL QB and several years as an Offensive Assistant, now in his 2nd year as Head Coach of the Vikings, has a career regular season record of 19 wins and 10 losses (.655) and a post season record of 0-1. In his first year as Head Coach the Vikings finished 1st in the NFC North with a 13-4 record. Getting off to a slow start in 2023 and losing Cousins for the year early and Jefferson for most of the year, they have rebounded to get back in the playoff race, currently the 6th Seed.

Matt LaFleur, a former college wide receiver and QB, had been a long time Offensive Assistant and also a former Offensive Coordinator, is now in his 5th season as Head Coach of the Green Bay Packers. He has a career regular season record of 53 wins and 25 losses (.679) and a post season record of 2 wins and 3 losses. Currently the Packers have a 6-6 record and they are the 7th Seed in the NFC.

Shane Steichen, a former college QB, has spent most of his NFL Coaching on the Offensive side of the ball, having spent time as the Offensive Coordinator for both the Chargers and the Eagles before being hired by the Colts in 2023 as their Head Coach. The Colts currently have a 7 win, 5 loss record and they are the 6th Seed in the AFC.

Kevin Stefanski, a former college defensive back, has spent his entire NFL Coaching career on the Offensive side of the ball and was previously an Offensive Coordinator for the Vikings before being named as the Head Coach for the Cleveland Browns in 2020 when he was named AP NFL Coach of the Year. In 2020 he became the 1st Browns Head Coach to have a winning record since 2007 finishing with an 11-5 record and making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They won their first playoff game since 1994. Stefanski now in his 4th year as the Browns Head Coach, has a career regular season record of 33-27 (.550) and a postseason record of 1-1. The Browns currently have a record of 7-5 and they are the 5th Seed in the AFC.

Brandon Staley, a former college QB, has spent his entire career as a Defensive Coach. Now in his 3rd season as Head Coach of the L.A. Chargers, he has a career regular season record of 24 wins and 22 losses (.522) with one appearance in the playoffs, a loss. Currently the Chargers have 5-7 record and they are the 12th Seed in the AFC. Known for his in game poor decision making, most would agree that Staley has underachieved with the talent the Chargers have had.

DeMeco Ryans, a former All-Pro NFL Linebacker, was hired in 2017 as a Defensive Quality Control Coach, promoted to ILB Coach in 2018, and then promoted to Defensive Coordinator for the 2022 season after the departure of Robert Saleh. Ryans Defensive unit finished as the top defense in football by DVOA and was named PFWA Assistant Coach of the Year. On January 31, 2023, Ryans was announced as the next Head Coach of the Houston Texans, the same franchise he originally started his professional NFL career for. He is the 3rd Head Coach hired in the last 3 off seasons by the Texans. In his 1st year as Head Coach of the Texans the team has a record of 7 wins and 5 losses, and they are the 7th Seed in the AFC. So far in 2023, the Texans have equaled the number of wins in their previous 2 seasons.

Robert Saleh, a former college TE, has spent most of his 20 year coaching career as a Defensive Coach. He was the Defensive Coordinator for the 49ers from 2017 to 2020, winning a Super Bowl there and one in 2014 with the Seahawks, before being named Head Coach of the N.Y. Jets for the 2021 season. Now in his 3rd year as a Head Coach, he has a career record of 15 wins and 31 losses (.326). The team has proven to be a good defensive squad but hitched their wagon to Aaron Rodgers this year, who was lost for the year on the first offensive series of the season. Poor QB play has hampered their success under the tenure of Saleh.

Arthur Smith, son of FedEX Founder Frederick W. Smith, was a 1st team all-state Offensive Lineman in high school and played Guard in college. Smith began his coaching career in 2007 when he became the Defensive quality control coach for the Washington Redskins. His father was a minority owner of the team at that time. Smith spent his early years on the defensive side of the ball but then transitioned to the offensive side of the ball. He was the Offensive Coordinator for the Tennessee Titans from 2019-2020 before being named Head Coach of the Failclowns for the 2021 season. Now in his 3rd year in that stint he has a career record of 20 wins and 26 losses (.435) and has not won a division title or even made the playoffs yet. He had losing seasons in his first two years. Currently, 6-6 and in 1st place in the NFC South, Smith has a chance to break the mold that he has cast. A loss this week to a division foe Bucs team could jeopardize any positive vibes that have come as of late.


So, what's to be taken from this information? From my viewpoint I'd say good luck hiring one of the coaches from the first tier, those that have been winning for many years and/or those that who have won Super Bowls. That's not likely to be an option very often. Rumors have it that Bill Belichick may be on the move after this year but at this point those are only rumors. The others will be staying put for a while unless they choose to retire. Of course, only Jerrah could Jones for what he wished he could have instead of what he has. We'll see.

Out of the 13 Head Coaches in the under 45 group, there may be a few on the hot seat that could be fired before next year. Staley has underperformed with the Chargers and has been on the hot seat since the end of last year. I'd be surprised if Saleh gets canned even though his seat in the big apple is definitely hot, as the Jets most likely will give him an opportunity to have a season with Rodgers under center. The only other one would be Smith. If the Turds crumble down the stretch and fail to make the playoffs he could be shown the door. All of the others mentioned in this group appear to be safe for now and are on the right track with their squads.

What I see mostly is Young Offensive Minded Coaches are the way to go to get a club that is in need of new direction pointed that way the quickest. The NFL is a league driven by Offensive Production. You Have to Score Points to win consistently in the NFL. Defense may win championship games but it's hard to get there without a potent offense. Of course, it helps to have balance and better yet, be good in all phases of the game. If I were looking for a new Head Coach, I would focus on the Younger Coaches with Plenty of Offensive Experience in their backgrounds. Recent success has been found in that gene pool.

So far, in the group of Head Coaches under 45 with Defensive backgrounds, only DeMeco Ryans has shown the ability to come in year one and turn a downtrodden franchise into a winning club that appears to have a bright future. Again, the jury is still out with Saleh, but the hangman has his noose in hand. I would not even consider a retread Head Coach looking for another chance, especially a Defensive minded one. For every Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll out there you're more likely to get a dozen or more of Dennis Allen, Steve Spagnuolo, Matt Patricia, Jim Schwartz, Vance Joseph, Gus Bradley, Raheem Morris, Ron Rivera, Rex Ryan, Jeff Fisher, Wade Phillips, Monte Kiffin, Dom Capers, Jim Haslett, Jim Mora, Jr.; Defensive minded coaches that couldn't win either at all or not consistently enough to warrant another shot as an NFL Head Coach. Dan Quinn may be the outlier of the bunch, but a FailClown retread would need to find a nest to roost elsewhere.

So, who do you think are the Young Offensive Minds currently coaching in the NFL that could become the next new generation Head Coach?

Would you consider any of the following coaches that are under 45 years old and are currently Offensive Coordinators such as Ben Johnson/Lions, Brian Johnson/Eagles, Frank Smith/Dolphins, Kellen Moore/Chargers, Press Taylor/Jaguars, Bobby Slowik/Texans, Mike LaFleur/Rams, Brian Calahan/Bengals, Luke Getsy/Bears, Adam Stenavich/Packers, Shane Waldron/Seahawks, Mike Kafka/Giants, Joe Brady/Bills, Dave Ragone/Falcons, Thomas Brown/Panthers, Dave Canales/Bucs, Drew Petzing/Cardinals, or Wes Phillips/Vikings (son of Wade Phillips, Grandson of Bum Phillips)

Awesome research and write up, but wow! You have a lot of time on your hands! Lol!!! Great information!

 

[Saint Jack]

If the Saints and the Broncos came to an impasse over Payton, what would the NFL do? Or should I say Gayle Benson vs the Waltons? The NFL isn't stupid.

That was never gonna happen. In every interview Payton gave in the offseason last year, he said that Loomis agreed to let him go.

Now for comparison, if you watch the 30 For 30 film, “The Two Bills,” Kraft did state that the League did steer Parcells from the Patriots to the Jets.

 

[No2DC]

Just to play devil’s advocate for a quick second.
There was no easy way to get through this trade without potentially damaging Payton’s relationship with the franchise.
Consider this, when Payton retires for good, he’s still gonna be very valuable for the franchise in terms of this franchise selling merchandise based on that ‘06-‘21 run, his potential induction to the HOF.
Damaging his relationship with the Saints does have an effect even after his full retirement.

If your ex gets married after you, you are irrelevant. I get your point, but I don't see him coming back; this ain't southern Cal.

 

[Saint Jack]

If your ex gets married after you, you are irrelevant. I get your point, but I don't see him coming back; this ain't southern Cal.

I don’t mean coming back to coach the Saints.
I mean, after his retirement he’s still gonna represent the Saints because his career here was so long and it’ll do damage if the relationship with the franchise is damaged.
It’s like whenever you see Jimmy Johnson on TV, it’s like an ad for the Cowboys.

 

[LifeForceDave]

The one stat you forgot to mention is there’s a 0.027% chance this team succeeds under Allen. Time to move on.

 

[Artifactual]

Outstanding post. An avg. tenure of 3.2 years, holy cow, it's a rough (but well-paid) business.

And we're talking about Bum Phillips' grandson as a coach. I am really getting old.

Surely a lot of talking points here. O.A. "Bum" Phillips was once the Head Coach of the Saints. When "Bum" was fired his son Wade Phillips became the interim Head Coach of the Saints. Wes could be a 3rd generation Head Coach of the Saints. I doubt any franchise has had a 3-generation family tree of HCs. Interesting that Wes is an Offensive guy, and his Pops and Grampa were Defensive guys. Wes could come in and run the Offense and bring Dad along to shore up the Defense. Kind of a reverse role situation of the Moras or Shanahans, son Boss over dad.

I can see a local eatery naming a large sandwich the Grand Son On A Bum or a bar naming a drink the Tripple Phillips Screwdriver, or something like that.

 

[Artifactual]

just call me this, but you could write up all this on failed young coaches as well. It's still all a gamble and young coaches need to be able to find the right QB to fit their systems or they will be out the league.

Hey there Debbie! You can do the research to write up something on failed young coaches if you want. My post emphasized the turnover ratio of NFL Head Coaches and the trend of 1st Time Head Coaches being under 45 years old and most having an Offensive background. I know it's a long read but that may summarize it a bit.

I'm not so sure about a coach coming in and finding the right QB to fit their system. In most cases there is already a QB in the building and if not, you're drafting one to be the Franchise QB of the future. In either case the player may not fit the system that a coach would like to implement, and it would be best to build a system around the player until you acquire a player that fits the system you prefer to run. The old adage of not trying to fit a square peg in a round hole applies.

 

[Artifactual]

The one stat you forgot to mention is there’s a 0.027% chance this team succeeds under Allen. Time to move on.

After further research I have determined that there is more than 10 times the chance this teams succeeds under Allen than you gave him.
By my calculations he has a 0.283% chance.

 

[Madmarsha]

Dang. That first post must have taken you, like, 20 minutes to write.

 

[Artifactual]

great post, thanks! I was leaning to a DC coach like Demeco, but i think you're right, we have to find the next great OC ready to make the leap. Will our fan base be patient ? The OC choice must be an alpha and must not buckle to BS.

To add more context to your post: The OC change rate last year was 50% across the NFL :
"After a record-tying 10 teams switched head coaches for the 2022 season, there will be more turnover for 2023.
There were five head coaching changes, but the bigger surprise is how many teams need new offensive coordinators. Sixteen squads -- half the league! -- will change offensive coordinators for next season, including five playoff teams and both Super Bowl participants."

Thanks, and Good Work yourself adding the next layer of information regarding the need to fill the Offensive Coordinator positions that will become available.

I do think that there will be a raid on the current Offensive Coordinators to fill the Head Coach openings in 2024. In turn, that will give even more opportunities for young Offensive Minded Position Coaches to step up to the next level and become Offensive Coordinators. The NFL stands for Not For Long and it is an ever-changing business.