The Investment Thread (3 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

stop losses in.

i had a 32% gain in 2019. im ok with 27% ( 5% off current stock price is my stop losses )

Lets see what happens going forward but at least now i dont have to teeter on a phone call to sell.

Just be careful putting stop losses too high. You'll need enough room to account for some volatility in the market. If the market drops just below the stop loss and bounces because of volatility, then the stop loss becomes pointless. Maybe look at where support levels are and put in a stop loss just below that point.

Of course, there are varying approaches to stop losses, but more of just something to consider than a firm recommendation of what to do. Good luck regardless.

 

[bclemms]

I held out on putting money in the market since early Jan.

@bclemms Looks like both your Gilead and NUGT buys will work.

It's been good so far. I didn't buy a ton of Gilead even though knew it was a really solid play short term. WHO just said Gilead's antiviral drug is the ONLY drug showing any promise and it's currently undergoing human trials in China. Ultimately though, I'm very skeptical that it will work and if it does work I'm also skeptical that China wont just make it themselves. So probably going to let it run a little more then sell it.

NUGT, I loaded up Friday afternoon when gold outran the miners. Sold off a little this morning but think gold is just getting it's legs. I'll bail on the gold when everyone on facebook starts talking about buying in.

 

[efil4stnias]

Just be careful putting stop losses too high. You'll need enough room to account for some volatility in the market. If the market drops just below the stop loss and bounces because of volatility, then the stop loss becomes pointless. Maybe look at where support levels are and put in a stop loss just below that point.

Of course, there are varying approaches to stop losses, but more of just something to consider than a firm recommendation of what to do. Good luck regardless.

I get that sentiment but im at 5% off todays lows. Thats my comfort level.

I figure at the end of the day we will be somewhere around 2-3% off and add my 5% stop loss levels and im on the hook for around 8% - if we get to that point, and my stop losses act, and next day market bounces back, ill wait.

This coronavirus issue is far from settled. And there is NOTHING the market hates more than "unknowns"

 

[bclemms]

I get that sentiment but im at 5% off todays lows. Thats my comfort level.

I figure at the end of the day we will be somewhere around 2-3% off and add my 5% stop loss levels and im on the hook for around 8% - if we get to that point, and my stop losses act, and next day market bounces back, ill wait.

This coronavirus issue is far from settled. And there is NOTHING the market hates more than "unknowns"

Good call. I still think the market is way overvalued in the short term. People just aren't grasping the impact of China. Trade war fears impacting Chinese supply lines by fractions of a percent had bigger impacts than coronavirus has so far which has flat out shut the entire country down for weeks and now China is forcing everyone back to work which is almost certainly going to worsen the virus. They don't have a choice at this point.

Next point, all the bad news from Asia and Europe happen between 6pm and 6am central times due to time zone differences. This means that all the bad news is coming overnight and the after hours markets is where the big drops are coming and the US markets aren't having big volatility during open market hours.

Finally, how is the market going to react when USA gets it's first widespread outbreak like Italy or Iran? We aren't testing and have more suspected cases than China so the chances the ball is already rolling in the US is not only real but likely.

 

[efil4stnias]

Good call. I still think the market is way overvalued in the short term. People just aren't grasping the impact of China. Trade war fears impacting Chinese supply lines by fractions of a percent had bigger impacts than coronavirus has so far which has flat out shut the entire country down for weeks and now China is forcing everyone back to work which is almost certainly going to worsen the virus. They don't have a choice at this point.

Next point, all the bad news from Asia and Europe happen between 6pm and 6am central times due to time zone differences. This means that all the bad news is coming overnight and the after hours markets is where the big drops are coming and the US markets aren't having big volatility during open market hours.

Finally, how is the market going to react when USA gets it's first widespread outbreak like Italy or Iran? We aren't testing and have more suspected cases than China so the chances the ball is already rolling in the US is not only real but likely.

If you listen to Cramer this am, he was just getting started on the supply chain drum when all of a sudden, he reverses and says " im not saying.....".

As if someone in his earpiece said SHUT UP.

My FA thinks the current administration is trying to keep all this under wraps for obvious reasons.

With that said, i think we will stair step our way down over the next month...good news followed by bad news ...repeat. But im not gonna sit and watch my valuations decrease past 8% . 10% today for me is not the same as 10% in 2009.

and hell if it hits my stop loss - i locked in profits on all equities. and if it rebounds a day or two after that, ill sit and bide my time. with plenty of cash on hand to make a move.

But when you have govts across the globe shuttering almost everything, i cant imagine that wouldnt happen here if we get a concentrated outbreak in a major metropolis.

 

[DaveXA]

Significantly enough, dow is below 28k now.

Lowest point since Dec 12th.

 

[B4YOU]

Holy Moly!! 1k plunge!!

I wish I had just sold my Pacific stuff, held it as cash, and not bought into more VTSAX. But I’m glad I didn’t dump more money in the market at the beginning of the year like normal.

 

[bclemms]

So, the ONLY thing that has been driving the ecomony has been the US consumer. What does something like a 1000 point drop on the dow and coronavirus fears do to consumer sentiment?

 

[Saint_Ward]

AEY up 25% today. 5g supplier. Not making a profit, but looks like they are transforming the company.

Interesting...

 

[Zaphod]

What's the smartest composition for a 401k retirement plan right now?

 

[Saint_Ward]

What's the smartest composition for a 401k retirement plan right now?

Balanced. Depends on your age.

I dont touch my 401k much. I just rebalance it here and there.

If I were near retirement I'd have more in stable value and bonds. I'd limit my Asia exposure for now and maybe pair down the s&p, but I'd jump back in fast. Long term, the s&p500 will gain..

 

[bclemms]

Futures are showing a nice bounce. I think it's a fake rally though and no way am I buying into the markets with the chance of an epidemic breaking loose in a country that can't even manage to test for the virus. Think we have about 10% more to go to get real on the economic impact out of China before we can start talking about a rally of substance.

 

[efil4stnias]

Futures are showing a nice bounce. I think it's a fake rally though and no way am I buying into the markets with the chance of an epidemic breaking loose in a country that can't even manage to test for the virus. Think we have about 10% more to go to get real on the economic impact out of China before we can start talking about a rally of substance.

Agree. This is ppl buying at a 3-4% discount today.
As news continues to show more cases, spreading wider, it will change the mood. May not be today, but it's going to happen. And once it hits State side, and folks see how unprepared the US is, could be more than a 10% drop.
And if my inclination that folks like Trump but don't necessarily belive what he says is correct, this can get out of hand quick.

 

[bclemms]

Gold ran too high too fast. Seeing a ton of volatility today and yesterday for the first time in quite some time saw the bears show up in bulk. Looks like it's building a line in the 1650 range. Hopefully it can hold in this range and consolidate before making it's next big move up.

 

[DaveXA]

Gold ran too high too fast. Seeing a ton of volatility today and yesterday for the first time in quite some time saw the bears show up in bulk. Looks like it's building a line in the 1650 range. Hopefully it can hold in this range and consolidate before making it's next big move up.

I think it's largely profit taking and people remapping their portfolios. This little bump up after yesterday's selloff is gonna be shortlived imo.

Gold is just a pause before pushing higher.